IPCC Assessment report 4 WG1 the science

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the IPCC Assessment Report 4 Working Group 1 (WG1) and critiques the Milankovitch theory regarding ice ages and the reliability of isotopes as paleothermometers. It highlights that ice ages are triggered by minima in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, while rapid deglaciations are linked to intense summer insolation. The conversation emphasizes the importance of peer-reviewed studies and the need for critical evaluation of climate data, despite acknowledging potential errors in the IPCC reports.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of Milankovitch cycles and their impact on climate.
  • Familiarity with paleoclimatology and the use of isotopes as paleothermometers.
  • Knowledge of the IPCC Assessment Reports and their significance in climate science.
  • Ability to critically analyze scientific literature and data.
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the latest findings on Milankovitch cycles and their implications for climate change.
  • Study the methodologies used in paleothermometry, focusing on isotopic analysis.
  • Explore the critiques of the IPCC reports and alternative perspectives in climate science.
  • Examine the role of feedback mechanisms in climate systems and their impact on glacial and interglacial periods.
USEFUL FOR

Climate scientists, researchers in paleoclimatology, students studying environmental science, and anyone interested in the complexities of climate change and its historical context.

Andre
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is here:

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html

I spotted the expected errors:

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_TS.pdf

The Milankovitch, or ‘orbital’ theory of the ice ages is now well developed. Ice ages are generally triggered by minima in high-latitude NH summer insolation, enabling winter snowfall to persist through the year and therefore accumulate to build NH glacial ice sheets. Similarly, times with especially intense high-latitude NH summer insolation, determined by orbital changes, are thought to trigger rapid deglaciations, associated climate change and sea level rise. These orbital forcings determine the pacing of climatic changes, while the large responses appear to be determined by strong feedback processes that amplify the orbital forcing. Over multi-millennial time scales, orbital forcing also exerts a major influence on key climate systems such as the Earth’s major monsoons, global ocean circulation and the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. {6.4}

Not! See:

https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=162192

Note that the "temperature graph" refutes any form of strong positive feedback, be it caused by CO2 or by any other mechanism.

A second problem is the incredible thrust in isotopes being reliable paleothermometers, which is -repeating again- demonstratably not so.
 
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See:

http://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3150



Thank you for bringing this to our attention. As scientists, it is important for us to carefully review and critique all research and data presented, especially in such a complex and important field such as climate change. I appreciate your diligence in identifying potential errors in the IPCC reports.

However, I would caution against dismissing the entire Milankovitch theory and the use of isotopes as paleothermometers based on a few studies. The scientific community has extensively studied and debated these concepts for decades, and while there may be some discrepancies and uncertainties, the evidence overwhelmingly supports the role of orbital forcing in triggering ice ages and the use of isotopes as reliable indicators of past temperatures.

Furthermore, the IPCC reports are not the only source of information on climate change. As scientists, we must consider a wide range of peer-reviewed studies and data from multiple sources to fully understand the complexities of our changing climate. I encourage you to continue to critically evaluate and contribute to the ongoing discussions and research in this field.

Thank you again for your contribution to this forum.
 

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