billschnieder said:
No! You are not paying attention, and it is you who is confusing the theoretical and the empirical. You keep bringing up the word "trials" which is tripping you up. Just because I give you an abstract list does not mean the list represents "trials" in an experiment. If I wanted the list to represent results of trials, I would state that clearly.
Well, excuse me for thinking your question was supposed to have some relation to the topic we were discussing, namely Bell's theorem. It didn't occur to me to think that it had no relation at all to Bell's theorem (where the only "lists" we might deal with would be lists of results from repeated measurements of entangled particles), and that you were just on a quest to prove I "don't understand probabilities" by asking me a bizarre question of a kind that would never appear in any statistics textbook. Can I play this game too? Here's an "abstract list" of letters (or is it a list of words?):
The quick brown fox jumped over the lazy dog
Quick now, what's the probability of "ox"?
billschnieder said:
For a coin N = 2, for a die, N=6, yet you can still calculate the expectation value without any infinite trials!
Only if you assume by symmetry that it's a "fair" die or coin, in which case you have a reasonable theoretical basis for believing the "limit frequency" of each result would appear just as often as every other one. If you had an irregularly-shaped coin (say, one that had been partially melted) it wouldn't be very reasonable to just
assume the limit frequency of "heads" is 0.5.
billschnieder said:
In statistics, if you are given the population, you can calculate the true probabilities without any trials. It is done every day in the frequentist approach, which you claim to understand!
Not in the "limit frequentist" approach where we are talking about frequencies in the limit as number of times the population is sampled approaches infinity (unless we make some auxiliary assumptions about
how the population is being sampled, like the assumption we're using a process which has an equal probability of picking any member of the population)
JesseM said:
Your arguments may have been assuming the "finite frequentist" view, but as I said that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about the more common "frequentist" view that defines objective probabilities in terms of the limit as the number of trials goes to infinity.
billschnieder said:
So now you are no longer talking about "frequentist view" but some special version of the frequentist view?
Yes, I think I have explained a bunch of times now that I am talking about "probability" defined as the frequency in the limit as the number of trials (or the 'sample size' if you prefer) goes to infinity. There is also such a thing as "finite frequentism" which just says if you have a finite set of N trials, and a given result occurred on m of those trials, then the "probability" is automatically defined as m/N (see
frequency interpretations from the Stanford Encyclopedia article on probability for more on 'finite frequentism')...this is not a definition I have ever been using, but I thought perhaps you were, since you gave a list with 4 entries and said the "probability" of an entry that appeared once on the list was 1/4.
billschnieder said:
This is just plain wrong, as the section of Wikipedia I quoted to you clearly explains.
What is just plain wrong? That there are multiple meanings of "frequentism", and that there is such a thing as "finite frequentism" as distinct from what I'm here calling "limit frequentism"? If you think that's wrong, go read the Stanford Encyclopedia article. If it's some other thing you think I was claiming, can you be specific?
billschnieder said:
The law of large numbers gives you an approximation to the "true" probability and that approximation get's more accurate as the number of trials increases. It does not define an objective probability.
Sure, that's what I've been saying all along, again with the understanding that by "true" probability I mean the limit frequentist probability.
billschnieder said:
The objective probability is defined by the actual population content and the population size can be any number.
I don't know what you mean by "defined by the actual population". By "population" do you mean the sample space of possible outcomes, or do you mean a "population" of trials (or picks or whatever) from the sample space? (you may remember from a previous discussion that wikipedia does at times use 'population' to refer to a large set of trials, see
here) If you're talking about a population of trials, then the limit frequentist probability would require us to consider the limit as the population size approaches infinity. If you're just talking about the outcomes in the sample space, are you claiming that if there were N outcomes the "objective probability" would automatically be 1/N?
JesseM said:
What do you mean by "true expectation value"? Are you using the same definition I have been using--the average in the limit as the number of trials goes to infinity--or something else?
billschnieder said:
Humbug!
billschnieder said:
Do you have short-term memory issues or something.
Not that I can recall!
billschnieder said:
What have we been discussing these past 5 pages of posts?
Bell's theorem, and your odd criticisms of it which seem to presuppose a notion of probability different from the limit frequentist notion (for example, at the end of post #1224 you acted as though my comment that we might not be able to 'resort' the data from a finite series of trials in the way you suggested was equivalent to an 'admission' that it is 'possible for ρ(λi) to be different'). Which is why I ask if you are "using the same definition I have been using--the average in the limit as the number of trials goes to infinity--or something else?" I have asked a few times if you are willing to use this definition at least for the sake of analyzing Bell's proof to see if it makes more sense that way, but you have never given me a clear answer. Can you take a quick break from venting hostility at me and just answer yes or no, is this the definition you've been using? And if not, would you be willing to use it for the sake of discussion, to see if the problems you have with the applicability of Bell's results might go away
if we assume he was using this type of definition?
billschnieder said:
Did you not see this definition I posted from Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
I saw, but you have a tendency to interpret quotes from other sources in odd ways that differ from how I (or any physicist, I'd wager) would interpret them, like with much of your interpretation of Bell's paper. So can you please just answer the question: are you using (or are you willing to use for the sake of this discussion) the limit frequentist notion of probability, where "probability" is just the frequency in the limit as the number of trials goes to infinity?
JesseM said:
Also, when you say "it is their only hope", what is "it"?
billschnieder said:
In case you have forgotten, we are discussin Bell's inequality
|E(a,b) + E(a,c)| - E(b,c) <= 1
According to Bell, E(a,b), E(a,c) and E(b,c) are "true" expectation values with a uniform ρ(λ) for all three terms, or if you prefer "objective" expectation values for the paired product of outcomes at two stations.
Yes.
billschnieder said:
Those expectation values are defined by Bell in equation (2) of his paper, using the standard mathematical definition of expectation values for continuous variables.
No, the "standard mathematical definition" of an expectation value involves
only the variable whose value you want to find the expectation value for, in this case the product of the two measurement results. The standard definition is to take each possible value for
this variable (not some other variable like λ), and multiply by the probability of that value, giving a weighted sum of the form \sum_{i=1}^N R_i P(R_i ). In the standard definition would give us:
E(a,b) = (+1)*P(detector with setting a gets result +1, detector with setting b gets result +1) + (-1)*P(detector with setting a gets result +1, detector with setting b gets result -1) + (-1)*P(detector with setting a gets result -1, detector with setting b gets result +1) + (+1)*P(detector with setting a gets result -1, detector with setting b gets result -1)
Bell is not trying to provide a totally new definition of "expectation value", instead he's just giving a physical argument that the expectation value
as conventionally understood (i.e. the definition above) would be
equal to the expression he's giving in equation (2). But that equation isn't how he "defines" the expectation value, it would just be silly to try to provide a new definition of such a commonly used term.
billschnieder said:
Experimenters measure "something". From this "something" they calculate certain empirical expectation values E(a1,b1), E(a2,c2) and E(b3,c3) where the numbers corresponds to the run of the experiment. They then plug these empirical expectation values into the LHS of the above inequality and obtain a value which they compare with the RHS and notice that the inequality is violated.
Yes, I agree (although I think 'empirical expectation value' is a confusing phrase, I would just use 'empirical average' or something like that).
billschnieder said:
In case you forgot, this whole discussion is about whether those empirical expectaion values are appropriate terms to be used in Bell's inequality.
Since the E(a,b), E(b,c) and E(a,c) in Bell's inequality are
defined in the conventional way, i.e.
E(a,b) = (+1)*P(detector with setting a gets result +1, detector with setting b gets result +1) + (-1)*P(detector with setting a gets result +1, detector with setting b gets result -1) + (-1)*P(detector with setting a gets result -1, detector with setting b gets result +1) + (+1)*P(detector with setting a gets result -1, detector with setting b gets result -1)
...with the probabilities in that equation understood as the "limit frequentist" probabilities, it follows from the law of large numbers that the bigger the sample size, the smaller the probability that there will be any significant difference between the "limit frequentist" expectation values and the empirical averages of this form:
Avg(a,b) = (+1)*(fraction of trials in run where detector with setting a got result +1, detector with setting b got result +1) + (-1)*(fraction of trials in run where detector with setting a got result +1, detector with setting b got result -1) + (-1)*(fraction of trials in run where detector with setting a got result -1, detector with setting b got result +1) + (-1)*(fraction of trials in run where detector with setting a got result -1, detector with setting b got result -1)
Hopefully you at least agree that in the limit as the number of trials becomes large, the expression for the empirical average below should approach
my definition (which I claim is of the standard form) for the expectation value above. In that case, does your whole argument hinge on the fact that you think Bell's equation (2) was giving an alternate
definition of "expectation value", one which would actually differ from the one I give?