Dotini said:
I am going to take the view that, like a chess player, he is executing a plan in the form of a combination of moves, trying to stay a step or two ahead of his opponent. But the game he is playing is not chess, but realpolitik. The basis of his game is pragmatism, and the forbidden truth that might makes right.
This is probably a correct analysis – with the Red Square Goggles on.
From this "mammoth perspective"; it's absolutely clear that masked thugs with tanks always win over intellectuals with briefcases, a no-brainer.
However, "The Mammoth" is underestimating (or missing) one piece on his chessboard – the 21st century Financial Queen. The message is that they are not afraid of financial sanctions, but Putin is an old KGB agent, interested in martial art and big fat out-of-date foreign actors; not derivatives, stocks and bonds... surely there are advisors around the him that do master these things (of course), but it looks like he only wants news that makes him happy, and he doesn't use internet, and is only watching his own corrupt news channel – listening to his own messages (
and this has been going on for 15 years).
A lot can go wrong in this kind of deep-frozen "Mammoth Information Bubble"...
And it already has; in the first 3 months there has been a $70 billion outflow, with an estimated
$150 billion outflow this year (
i.e. exceeding the record high $120 billion in 2008) in an 'optimistic' prognosis by former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin* saying;
"It's sort of payment for independent foreign policy".
Of course this is only the beginning, if Russia does continue on the "Realpolitik Highway" and invade Ukraine – the Russian economy will implode in couple of weeks – any investors that do use internet or watch other news channels than Putin's, will get out of there ASAP.
There is no "Mammoth Information Bubble" that could withstand this kind of financial core meltdown.
And here is where things get scary... either Putin and his advisors has taken this scenario into account, and are indeed planning for a war that will include most/all of Europe (
=complete madness XL), that they are sure they will win (
=complete madness XXL), and that they will get 'their money' back in the end (
=complete madness XXXL).
Or, they have absolutely no idea what to do now, and hope Putin knows what he's doing, while Putin himself is dreaming about brave massive tank battlefields, à la Battle of Stalingrad, and his Russian judo kids saving the depraved "Gayrope".
It looks like Putin has set up the "Mammoth Chessboard" to either destroy the Russian economy, or large parts of the civilized world...
Let's truly hope I'm completely wrong, and that all this will take a completely new and civilized turn, to avoid the return of dysfunctional mammoths and counterproductive 19th century chessboards.
*Hey! That's a very cheap "independent foreign policy" – on my simple calculator I get $70 billion x 4 = $280 billion outflow this year, and you will be closer to insensate than independent before New Year's Eve! >:|
)
. The most distressing issue right now seems to be why all those Russian troops are still kept close to the Ukrainian border.
: 
... and analysis like 