Is High Gasoline Pricing a Catalyst for Clean Energy Transition?

[franznietzsche]

In the UK we pay a tad under $6.80 per gallon(taking into account the US's smaller gallon) I don't see us clamouring for hydrogen fuel and I doubt the US will until the price becomes considerably higher than it is now. The US should feel glad there oil is so cheap

How many people commute more than 30 miles to work everyday in London? Now, how many could afford to do that if there was almost zero public transportation in London?

More than 3 million americans have 90 minute commutes to work. Probably close to that many in Los Angeles County alone drive more than 25 miles each way to work every day. When both my dad and I had to commute more than 50 miles to work every day it cost us almost $4,000 a year each. And we weren't driving gas guzzling SUVs either (not that my car was particularly fuel efficient anyway, Chrysler Sebring). Its damn expensive.

 

[Anttech]

How many people commute more than 30 miles to work everyday in London? Now, how many could afford to do that if there was almost zero public transportation in London?

Actually Millions do, London is too expensive for the majority of people to live in, and thus people live outside London and commute. There is a serious problem in London where people cannot live near to the place they work. One example is Nurses, who cannot live near to Hospitals in the center of London...

 

[Astronuc]

Actually Millions do, London is too expensive for the majority of people to live in, and thus people live outside London and commute. There is a serious problem in London where people cannot live near to the place they work. One example is Nurses, who cannot live near to Hospitals in the center of London...

Same problem for many in San Francisco and cities and towns in Silicon Valley, where some houses are $500,000 - $1,000,000's. Nursing staff, emergency people, and teachers cannot afford housing!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

One thing that could be done is to strongly encourage telecommuting. I know that companies such as Dell are doing this more and more [caught the sales agent's dog barking while on the phone] but I am sure that millions of people in the US alone could simply stop commuting, as the norm.

Also, the time spend idle in trafffic is a huge liability. If work hours were staggered to allow better traffic flow - avoiding impulse loads - a great deal of gasoline would be saved. We had the numbers for this in another thread, IIRC. And in many cases this would be a piece of cake. Factories with large populations of workers often work 24-7. So the hours chosen for shift changes are mostly arbitrary.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Here is another mom and pop company. They [or a local competitor?] say that sales are up 300%.
http://www.ethanolstill.com/

It seems that Tennessee is particularly well suited for this particular industry.

 

[franznietzsche]

Actually Millions do, London is too expensive for the majority of people to live in, and thus people live outside London and commute. There is a serious problem in London where people cannot live near to the place they work. One example is Nurses, who cannot live near to Hospitals in the center of London...

You completely ignored the second part of my statement. Thank you. Be on your merry.

I love when people ignore my actual point.

There is a strong Public transportation system around London, you don't have to drive. There is no such thing in southern california. You have to drive. When I worked in San Fernando I would have to drive 50 miles to the office. 5 of the 8 stores we ran from that office were more than 20 miles from there, and I had to drive to them semi-regularly as well. At one point for about three weeks I went through a full tank of gas every day, driving more then 300 miles. It would be unaffordable with UK gas prices, as there is no alternative to driving. In London, you have an alternative. That's my point.

 

[loseyourname]

Same problem for many in San Francisco and cities and towns in Silicon Valley, where some houses are $500,000 - $1,000,000's. Nursing staff, emergency people, and teachers cannot afford housing!

The public transit in and around San Fran, though, is terrific. The BART goes everywhere, and doesn't take forever. The situation is far different where franz is referring to.

The odd thing about Los Angeles, though, is that there are more than enough low-income neighborhoods in the inner-city that entry-level working class people can afford to live near their work if they work in the city. It's the middle-class and upper-class folks that flee to the suburbs and subsequently have to make long commutes. Of course, in some parts of the city, you don't even have to live far away to have a long commute. I used to work at the California Science Center across the street from the USC campus, which was about 20 miles from where I lived, and it took an hour and a half to get there every morning. I was averaging around 13 mph on the interstate because traffic is so heavy. In contrast, a guy I have a robotics class with this semester commutes about an hour and fifteen minutes every day from 70 miles away.

The traffic system is just completely out of whack in parts of the US. New Jersey has to be the worst I've seen, with all of two north/south highways in the state that consistently have more than two lanes. Every other road is designed to handle the average car load from the 1940s.

 

[Anttech]

You completely ignored the second part of my statement. Thank you. Be on your merry.

I love when people ignore my actual point.

There is a strong Public transportation system around London, you don't have to drive. There is no such thing in southern california. You have to drive. When I worked in San Fernando I would have to drive 50 miles to the office. 5 of the 8 stores we ran from that office were more than 20 miles from there, and I had to drive to them semi-regularly as well. At one point for about three weeks I went through a full tank of gas every day, driving more then 300 miles. It would be unaffordable with UK gas prices, as there is no alternative to driving. In London, you have an alternative. That's my point.

I won't rise to you childish reply.

Public transport is VERY EXPENSIVE, A large majority of people drive because it turns out cheaper to do so, with the UK vastly more expensive petrol prices, and on top of that the new congestion charges. London is gridlock during rush hour, just like LA. The M25 is known as the biggest carpark in Europe. The geographic size of London, is smaller that LA county granted, but the population of London and its surrounding county is more than LA.

Anyway you missed my point that even with higher petrol prices people still drive to work. As you already concieded your car is not very fuel efficent: this is the difference. People here will drive far more efficent cars, poluting far less. As your petrol prices increase the trend in the US will be the same as here, and its a good trend IMO.

 

[Astronuc]

I used to work at the California Science Center across the street from the USC campus, which was about 20 miles from where I lived, and it took an hour and a half to get there every morning. I was averaging around 13 mph on the interstate because traffic is so heavy. In contrast, a guy I have a robotics class with this semester commutes about an hour and fifteen minutes every day from 70 miles away.

That's insane! But then I have seen pretty much the same in Houston.

The traffic system is just completely out of whack in parts of the US. New Jersey has to be the worst I've seen, with all of two north/south highways in the state that consistently have more than two lanes. Every other road is designed to handle the average car load from the 1940s.

Parts are pretty bad, and if I have to travel to NYC or NJ, I tend to do so very early in the morning, or middle of the day, or at night. I avoid most areas between 0600-0900, 1500-1900.

As for Public Transportation in major metropolitan areas. It works IF one lives along the corridors served by Public Transport, otherwise it is largely impractical.

I used to 47 miles from my office - I drove at least 94 miles/day - excluding side trips. In good weather, I could to one way in about 50-55 minutes, on a winding parkway with hills (and poorly banked curves). If it rained or snowed, that trip could be 1.5 - 3 hrs one way. I looked at taking Public Transport. I had two choices - take a bus (20-30 minutes), wait at train station (variable), take train (1 hr), wait at train station (variable), take bus (20-30 minutes). It would take about 2-3 hrs to get to or from work, or 4-6 hrs/day. Some people do that - but I think that's insane. And I lose flexibility - I go when the PT goes. If I had to be at the office at 0800, then I'd have to leave home between 0500-0600, and at night, I'd leave the office at 0500 and get home between 1900 and 2000 - or 2100.

5 of the 8 stores we ran from that office were more than 20 miles from there, and I had to drive to them semi-regularly as well. At one point for about three weeks I went through a full tank of gas every day, driving more then 300 miles.

I imagine the same would be true in London, unless the stores are located along the PT corridors. Driving 300 miles in one day seems rather impractical, and certainly using a full tank of gas is expected. It sounds like a matter of logistics. What did one need to do at the stores that could not have been done by computer and a comm link (e.g. internet)?

--------------------------------

Anyway, I now live in the countryside, 6.5 miles from my office, which is in a small city with a population of less than 30,000 - and it takes me ~12-14 minutes to get there.

 

[daveb]

Back when I lived in SoCal, my office was at the west end of the San Fernando Valley (Woodland Hills). I managed to find a place I could afford only 8 miles away (Encino), too far to bike (in an office you can't really come in covered in sweat), and it still took over 45 minutes to get there (more if I'd had to take public transportation). It isn't just the long distance commutes.

Now in Columbus, I'll be about the same distance, but it will only take about 15 minutes.

 

[BobG]

Carter promoted human rights as the cornerstone of his foreign policy. Inevitably this brought him into conflict with the USSR and it's eastern european allies leading to the US cutting off grain exports and eventually to the US boycott of the Moscow olympics. He also criticised many other countries human rights records including Chile, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Uganda and then of course there was Iran. He even criticised american allies such as S Korea. In fact conservative republicans like Jeanne Kirkpatrick used these 'attacks undermining US allies' against Carter in the 1980 election. Even european leaders of traditional american allies such as Giscard and Helmut Schmidt of France and Germany were reputed to hate Carter although in this latter case the strained relationship was due to what the europeans saw as american interference in their european domestic economic policies.. resulting in what was deemed 'malicious' manipulation of the US dollar by France.

To support the falling dollar Carter brought in Paul Volcker to head the Federal Reserve in 1979. In October 1979 Volcker boosted the dollar by allowing interest rates in the US to rise some 300% in weeks, to well over 20%. This ultimately led to a global recession.

I remember Paul Volcker well. As a construction worker (a masonry crew) in a slowly dying industrial town (Akron, OH was the tire capital of the US), Volcker's hikes in the interest rates were crushing.

I went from working on a masonry crew to a minimum wage job as a security guard, thanks to my brother-in-law who knew the owner of the company. I got another break when a gas station attendent at an all-night station on the interstate was shot in the head - I took his job to add a second minimum wage job to my income.

Still, it was something that had to be done to bring the economy back under control. The real problem was the US sticking to the gold standard years longer than it should have. Besides, the core problems of towns like Akron, Buffalo, steel towns in PA, were a lot deeper than interest rates. Volcker's interest hikes were more like euthanasia for the rust belt rather than the reason they were in trouble in the first place. In fact, the effect's of Volcker's recession made me realize that I had to get out of Akron if I wanted any kind of decent future.

(Considering Volcker is Russian for 'wolf', Volcker's interest rates could have made an interesting addendum to the Three Little Pigs story.)

 

[BobG]

Although I realize that the price of gas hits many of America's working poor the hardest, it is imperative that we wean ourselves from oil; and soon. My fear is that we will wait too long and will eventually be forced to engage in energy wars, or worse, because we will have no choice. As the world demand increases and supplies dwindle, there are difficult times ahead.

We now have maturing options to fossil fuels, some of which are clean such as the ideal Hydrogen based technolgies, and other more practical short term options that are relatively clean such as ethanol, biodiesel, salt-water algae extracts, biomass conversion techniques, clean coal, and so on.

The majority of mainstream energy alternatives are viable when gasoline hits $5.00 a gallon; at least this has been a common claim found for ten years or more. We are close to that price now, so I see this as a huge opportunity to act in our own best long term interest - to rush in the new OPEC-free era of US politics.

Edit:
http://www.nrdc.org/air/transportation/aoilpolicy2.asp
In principle this would all go back into the US economy.

I think we've already waited too long. I think we're at the point where it will take at least 20 to 30 years to adjust to permanently higher oil prices.

You would have thought the US would have learned something from the oil crisis in the 70's. Instead we let the price of gas drop to outrageously cheap levels (when adjusted for inflation).

That just encourages the type of sprawl that makes public transportation nearly impossible to implement in most medium size cities and the US auto industry is once again one or two steps behind their foreign competition. Neither one of those are problems that can be fixed very quickly.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I used to work at the California Science Center across the street from the USC campus, which was about 20 miles from where I lived, and it took an hour and a half to get there every morning.

This is why I walked away from UCLA and fled to Oregon. I couldn't take it any more. I used to spend three to four hours a day in traffic. Now I probably spend three to four hours a year in traffic.

edit: of course I did still finish college.

 

[Mercatoreador]

I love how you place so much faith in the small cap companies involved in alternative energies. You can NOT charge a whole lot more for gasoline (look at europe, and no, there is no price-fixing contrary to popular belief, prices are set by local stations) and ethanol is hardly the future. It's pretty much a temporary fix towards hydrogen energy which cannot be created by someone inside their house. They pretty much know they'll run out of product soon enough and the first that can supply hydrogen to the market will make tremendous profits since $7 equivalency-gallon of hydrogen just can't lose to some $10 gasoline, especially when governments aren't as likely to put a 50% tax on it like they do with gasoline.

The problem is that hydrogen is not available from a natural source, it has to be produced, meaning it is dependent on energy sources. I never saw any proposal to produce Hydrogen in a closed circuit, meaning use hydrogen energy to produce more hydrogen. I'm sure someone will be working on this though.
Years ago I put my hopes on methanol fuel cells, where the methanol is producing the hydrogen. But the technology does not seem to develop fast enough. Tha's in my eyes the ideal solution while waiting for nuclear fusion energy. Methanol is available from fossile as well as renewable sources, and the exisiting fuel distribution system can be used without too much modification for methanol.

 

[Astronuc]

Sharp Reaction to G.O.P. Plan on Gas Rebate

WASHINGTON, April 30 (NY Tmes) — The Senate Republican plan to mail $100 checks to voters to ease the burden of high gasoline prices is eliciting more scorn than gratitude from the very people it was intended to help.

Aides for several Republican senators reported a surge of calls and e-mail messages from constituents ridiculing the rebate as a paltry and transparent effort to pander to voters before the midterm elections in November.

"The conservatives think it is socialist bunk, and the liberals think it is conservative trickery," said Don Stewart, a spokesman for Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, pointing out that the criticism was coming from across the ideological spectrum.

The reaction comes as the rising price of gasoline has put the public in a volatile mood and as polls show that cynicism about Congress is at its highest level since 1994.

Priceless!

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Just to add to Anttechs point about the expense.

I live 20 miles from work and I commute by train. Yearly this costs 1500 pounds give or take a penny or two about $2473 per year including a subsidized bus pass. Trains are horrendously expensive and the government wonders why people travel by car?

 

[nsimmons]

On NPR today there was a call in from a gasoline station owner and he said he makes about 10 cents per gallon in profit.

If that is true, that means if he has 150,000 customers per year (~14 customers per hour) who buy 15 gallons of gasoline he'll be making a profit of $187,500 per year.

I can add something here. I had a business partner who owned at one time a shell and a smaller Canadian chain effiliated with esso. He made zero money on gasoline. He was essentially a middle man and survived soley on instore purchases. He had to constantly pimp lotto tickets and chocolate bars just to pay staff.

At least that's the way it works for Shell Canada and Imperial oil.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

This is great news! The local ABC affiliate just reported that commercially available, locally produced biodiesel is now cheaper than gasoline, here in the NW.

I just checked. They showed BD being sold at $2.96. This is competitive with both gasoline and regular diesel.
http://www.oregongasprices.com/inde...a=All Areas&station=All+Stations&tme_limit=48

Btw, that was B99 or B95. [doing back flips in office]

 

[Astronuc]

Northeast is not far behind. Governor Pataki is pushing for alternative fuels (including biodiesel) to be made available on our interstates (tollways/throughways).

Regular gasoline (87 octane) is around $3.09/gal in our area. Fortunately the prices seem to have stabilized. Last week the price was going up about $0.03-0.04/day, sometimes two price increases in a day.

locally produced biodiesel

Will there be fries with that?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

We should just streamline the process: Start selling biodiesel at McDonalds.

 

[Astronuc]

We should just streamline the process: Start selling biodiesel at McDonalds.

Someone is probably thinking just that. That's a scary thought.

 

[Gokul43201]

I saw this on the news recently : this person's engine is capable of running on cooking oil. He gets his used cooking oil for free from a restaurant that would otherwise pay to dispose of it. The acceleration, top speed, emission level and efficiency are similar to if it ran off regular gas (which it will, if there's no cooking oil around). I'm not sure about engine life though.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

If you go to the better biodiesel sites, they discuss the pure vegetable oil approach. I don't think this is competitive with biodiesel on all levels [performance], but it is certainly another maturing option.

Crud, I'm supposed to be working. Gotta go.

This is a historic day.

 

[Astronuc]

I saw this on the news recently : this person's engine is capable of running on cooking oil. He gets his used cooking oil for free from a restaurant that would otherwise pay to dispose of it. The acceleration, top speed, emission level and efficiency are similar to if it ran off regular gas (which it will, if there's no cooking oil around). I'm not sure about engine life though.

I heard that the exhaust smells like french fries, or fried chicken or whatever they happen to be cooking.

 

[Gokul43201]

This is a bit of a nonsequitur, but is pertinent to the oil price "crisis". I think it's broadly accepted that any serious military threat hurled at Iran by the UN/US will cause crude oil prices to jump. And if oil prices go up (in the US), the President's popularity goes down.

Is this then going to tie Bush's hands in yet another way, or does he not care enough about polls for it to affect policy in this matter ?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I keep wondering if all of this saber rattling is really just intended to drive up the price. After all, it is speculation, and not supply and demand, that directly drives the market price. Iran has to know that threats = dollars. Nice way to fund a nuclear program.

 

[Astronuc]

Restaurants May Help Cut Oil Dependence

Experts Say Restaurants Could Contribute to Fuel Supply if It Recycles Cooking Oil As Biodiesel

VANCOUVER, Wash. (AP) -- Its first nickname was "R2D2" after the "Star Wars" robot, but now they just call it "the dog" when it's time to drain the grease at Burgerville USA.

"The dog" is a small, stainless steel tank and pump combination on wheels that the Northwest restaurant chain has pioneered to channel used cooking oil to a biodiesel producer.

I wonder how far behind McDonald is? Perhaps McDonalds will corner the biofuel market.

 

[Astronuc]

This looks interesting.

The High Efficiency Dilute Gasoline Engine (HEDGE) Consortium at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) was initiated to develop the enabling technologies required for gasoline engines to meet the performance, durability, and emissions requirements of future motor vehicles.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) post-2010 emission standards are anticipated to be more stringent than those currently in place. With these projected lower emission levels, the efficiency and cost benefit of the diesel engine technology may be compromised to the point that gasoline engine technology will become competitive for both light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles.

http://www.swri.org/4org/d03/engres/pwrtrn/hedge/

 

[Astronuc]

Meanwhile, the entreprenurial spirit is still alive!

First Fuel Banks Locks in Today's Rates (or perhaps last years in this case)
By GREGG AAMOT, Associated Press Writer

ST. CLOUD, Minn. - Most motorists are feeling the pain as gasoline creeps toward, or over, $3 a gallon — but not Art Altrichter.

"This feels pretty good!" Altrichter said as he filled the tank of his Ford F-150 pickup for $2.03 a gallon on Thursday, when the average here was $2.73. "Right now, to be a few pennies over $2, when it's as high as it is? That's a real deal."

A year ago, the retired milk truck driver bought 500 gallons of gas at First Fuel Banks, locking it in at the then-current price of $2.03 a gallon. He taps that reserve whenever gas rises above that mark. If the retail price drops below $2.03, he can leave his reserve alone and buy elsewhere.

First Fuel Banks bills itself as the only retailer in the country where customers can buy gasoline for the future and hedge against rising prices. It advertises no service charge and no storage charge, just a $1 lifetime membership fee.

Altrichter said one of his neighbors got in at First Fuel Banks several years ago and is now is withdrawing from a reserve that cost him 99 cents a gallon. "How about that!" he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060507/ap_on_bi_ge/gas_bank_5

 

[Rach3]

Meanwhile, the entreprenurial spirit is still alive!

First Fuel Banks Locks in Today's Rates (or perhaps last years in this case)
By GREGG AAMOT, Associated Press Writer
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060507/ap_on_bi_ge/gas_bank_5

Lucky that very few people are doing this, otherwise the consumer would be artificially inflating their own prices.