Is Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party Victory Creating a One Party State in the UK?

[SW VandeCarr]

Far leftist Jeremy Corbyn won the election for the British Labour Party leadership as expected. He was the incumbent leader since 2015.. He won based on the support of constituent party members, but with almost no support from the parliamentary Labour Party. The party is expected to split leaving the Conservative Party with no significant opposition for the foreseeable future. I'm not aware of this happening in the UK at any time in recent history except the for the WW2 coalition. Among democracies, Japan has long been a one party state, but not without a fair amount of corruption. What's the opinion of UK PF members? Is one party rule OK or not? I need a break from our US election.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/25/world/europe/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-leader.html?_r=0

 

[PeroK]

The Labour Party may have little chance of winning the next election under Corbyn, although you never know. Nevertheless, this leaves the UK far from being a one-party state.

The Conservatives themselves were largely wiped out in 1997 and took until at least 2005 to recover, before returning as the main party in the coalition government following the 2010 election.

 

[SW VandeCarr]

The Labour Party may have little chance of winning the next election under Corbyn, although you never know. Nevertheless, this leaves the UK far from being a one-party state.

Why is it far from a one party state? The parliamentary party (PLP) overwhelming opposes Corbyn's far left positions. How can there be an effective opposition with this kind of split between the PLP and the CLP? Most of the members of the shadow cabinet resigned after the Brexit vote. How can one unify the party of Tony Blair/David Miliband and the party of Jeremy Corbyn?

 

[PeroK]

Why is it far from a one party state? The parliamentary party (PLP) overwhelming opposes Corbyn's far left positions. How can there be an effective opposition with this kind of split between the PLP and the CLP? Most of the members of the shadow cabinet resigned after the Brexit vote. How can one unify the party of Tony Blair/David Milibrand and the party of Jeremy Corbyn?

If it was a one party state, the Conservatives would have simply appointed their candidate as the major of London.

Out of 650 parliamentary seats the Conservatives won 331 at the last election. That's a slim majority. By contrast, in 1997 Labour won 418 seats.

The Labour Party might be in serious trouble and it might split and it might mean that the Conservatives are almost guaranteed to be the single biggest party after the next election. Even so, there's no guarantee they will have an outright majority.

Finally, the Conservatives are not entirely united, so they don't need many rebels on their own side to lose a vote in parliament.

 

[PeroK]

An interesting point is what would happen if Scotland gained independence. Currently the SNP (Scottish National Party) has 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland. There is only one Labour, one Conservative and one LibDem. If Scotland left, the Conservatives would have a large majority in what was left of the UK and would have something closer to free reign.

Ironically, of course, the Conservatives campaigned strongly for Scotland to remain in the UK.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Mr. Corbyn seems not have winning elections and forming a government as his highest priority.

Single parties in democracies tend to be unstable. Japan's LDP has historically dominated, but the DPJ has been in power. The better counter-example would be Mexico's PRI, and even they eventually were toppled.

 

[SW VandeCarr]

An interesting point is what would happen if Scotland gained independence. Currently the SNP (Scottish National Party) has 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland. There is only one Labour, one Conservative and one LibDem. If Scotland left, the Conservatives would have a large majority in what was left of the UK and would have something closer to free reign.

Ironically, of course, the Conservatives campaigned strongly for Scotland to remain in the UK.

I suppose that would be the proper patriotic position for the Conservatives. A party probably shouldn't appear to encourage a partial breakup of the UK (unless it's the SNP). Does it seem likely? I would guess that the SNP is in some kind of secret negotiations with EU officials and would need a positive signal that they could fast track membership in the EU before they would call for another election on independence.

 

[PeroK]

I suppose that would the proper patriotic position for the Conservatives. A party probably shouldn't appear to encourage a partial breakup of the UK (unless it's the SNP). Does it seem likely? I would guess that the SNP is in some kind of secrete negotiations with EU officials and would need a positive signal that they could fast track membership in the EU before they would call for another election on independence.

It's not so secret. The SNP want another referendum and are in talks with the EU. Who knows what will happen?

The critical factor might be the 55% of Scotland who voted to stay in the UK. Many of whom must have voted to stay in the EU as well. If they were given the choice of Scotland in the UK (but out of the EU) or in the EU (but out of the UK) who knows what they would vote for! I think it's clear what the other 45% would vote for.

There's also no guarantee that they would be given that choice.

 

[SW VandeCarr]

There's also no guarantee that they would be given that choice.

What!? Do you mean Westminster would block a referendum? Oh my goodness! William Wallace will rise up from his grave!

 

[Ben Niehoff]

What!? Do you mean Westminster would block a referendum? Oh my goodness! William Wallace will rise up from his grave!

I don't think Westminster would block another referendum if the scenario significantly changes. But it's uncertain whether the EU would accept an independent Scotland in the first place.

 

[SW VandeCarr]

I don't think Westminster would block another referendum if the scenario significantly changes. But it's uncertain whether the EU would accept an independent Scotland in the first place.

I agree. While Westminster holds the power, it makes no sense to try to keep Scotland in the union if the majority want to leave. I always thought Scotland has more to lose than than the remainder of the UK with Scottish independence, . Spain at least will oppose Scotland's application if it gets that far with the EU.

 

[StatGuy2000]

I agree. While Westminster holds the power, it makes no sense to try to keep Scotland in the union if the majority want to leave. I always thought Scotland has more to lose than than the remainder of the UK with Scottish independence, . Spain at least will oppose Scotland's application if it gets that far with the EU.

My understanding is that Spain will oppose Scotland's application to the EU out of fear of the precedent it would make for secessionist movements that exist within their own country (i.e. Catalonia, the Basque Regions). Especially if the Catalans and Basques know that the door to remaining in the EU will continue to be open.

 

[StatGuy2000]

Back to the original topic:

The deep seated opposition that exists between Corbyn (and rank and file Labour Party members) and the parliamentary party could indeed result in a split, which isn't entirely unprecedented in British history -- for example, the emergence of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) back in 1981 from those who split from the existing Labour Party, which eventually merged with the remnant Liberal Party to form the current Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). So one possibility is that the current block of parliamentary members within the Labour Party could defect over to the LDP, creating a stronger third party that could challenge both the Conservatives and Labour.

 

[SW VandeCarr]

Back to the original topic:

The deep seated opposition that exists between Corbyn (and rank and file Labour Party members) and the parliamentary party could indeed result in a split, which isn't entirely unprecedented in British history -- for example, the emergence of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) back in 1981 from those who split from the existing Labour Party, which eventually merged with the remnant Liberal Party to form the current Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). So one possibility is that the current block of parliamentary members within the Labour Party could defect over to the LDP, creating a stronger third party that could challenge both the Conservatives and Labour.

The thread got into a discussion of Scotland because if Scotland left the UK, the Conservative party would be even stronger. As it is, I agree a new grouping with the LDP and the PLP might offer an adequate opposition. I don't know if the larger body of Labour voters would support the present PLP. You apparently have this system where party constituent members (about 500,000) are a smaller self-selected group as distinct from the general voting population. Is this correct?

 

[Merlin3189]

Isn't the point with Corbyn that we already have a one party state? Parliament consists mainly of career politicians. That is their real party. Whether they are incidentally elected as Labour or Conservative is largely irrelevant, they support centrist policies with the (democratically laudable?) aim of appealing to the majority of the electorate. Corbyn represents a socialist opposition to both main nominal parties as subsets of the Career party.