Is Kim Jong-un Paving the Way for Peace with South Korea?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's recent address calling for an end to confrontation with South Korea, exploring the implications of this statement for peace between the two nations. Participants examine the historical context, potential motivations behind the address, and the likelihood of actual change in relations.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that Kim's address may signal an intention to reduce tensions, possibly linked to a request for aid from South Korea.
  • Others argue that the separation of the two Koreas is likely to persist indefinitely, suggesting that a regime change in the North could be necessary for any significant shift.
  • There is speculation that Kim's speech is a strategic move to garner attention from the West and secure aid, with concerns about the regime's stability without such support.
  • One participant expresses skepticism about the sincerity of the address, citing a history of unfulfilled promises regarding peace.
  • Another participant comments on the odd timing of the speech following missile tests, suggesting it may be out of character for the regime.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants exhibit a range of views, with no consensus on the likelihood of peace or the motivations behind Kim's address. Some express hope for change, while others remain doubtful about the potential for real progress.

Contextual Notes

Participants acknowledge the historical context of the Korean conflict and the complexities surrounding North Korea's political dynamics, including its relationship with China and the implications for South Korea.

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North Korean leader, in rare address, seeks end to confrontation with South
http://news.yahoo.com/north-korean-leader-rare-address-seeks-end-confrontation-024100592.html

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for an end to confrontation between the two Koreas, technically still at war in the absence of a peace treaty to end their 1950-53 conflict, in a surprise New Year's broadcast on state media.

The address by Kim, who took power in the reclusive state after his father, Kim Jong-il, died in 2011, appeared to take the place of the policy-setting New Year's editorial published annually in the past in leading state newspapers.

. . . .
Kim's statement "apparently contains a message that he has an intention to dispel the current face-off (between the two Koreas), which could eventually be linked with the North's call for aid" from the South, . . .
. . . .
It would be great if N Korea can make peace with the south - finally - after 59 years.

It does seem to make for a promising year and future.
 
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I have been reading about this topic extensively lately, in book and news article.

These countries will stay separate probably forever, though a regime shift in the north would be nice - financially speaking the norths entire natural resources are Chinese owned/operated - it'll more likely remain as a Chinese commercially dominated province.

The south does not really stand to benefit from any form of reunification, though their only interest is that they keep the north from having ties with Japan.

Anyways, here's a great article from 2006 on the subject.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/2/

Also, I have a feeling this is a carefully planned tactic to force more attention on them by the west. This is the regimes major way to keep aid coming and to keep power. Without this attention the country will divide amongst sub groups and begin to fall apart.

EDIT: Ahh, yep read the article now - it's definitely linked to aid. This is a weird thing for him to do, because it will be seen as weak from the people. He's trying to balance something.
 
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One can always hope. I won't take it seriously though unless they fire that news anchor. She's a provocation all by herself.
 
It comes after series of missile tests under his leadership. His speech seems bit odd or out of place but still promising IMO
 
Been promising speech for years but nothing ever seems to happen. I won't hold my breath.
 

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