Is Libya on the brink of a full-blown civil war?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers on the potential for a civil war in Libya amidst ongoing military actions by Ghaddafi against civilians and rebels. Participants explore the implications of international intervention, particularly the establishment of a no-fly zone, and the complexities involved in military strategy and air defense systems.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants express concern that Libya is on the brink of a civil war, citing Ghaddafi's military actions against civilians and rebels in key regions.
  • There are calls for a no-fly zone to prevent further civilian casualties, with some arguing that it could have been implemented earlier to mitigate the situation.
  • Others support the idea of sending troops to Libya, suggesting that there is significant internal support for such an action.
  • Concerns are raised about the complexities and potential consequences of establishing a no-fly zone, including the need to first neutralize Libya's air defenses, which could lead to civilian casualties.
  • Participants discuss military strategies related to air superiority, including the challenges of offensive counter air operations and the importance of suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD).
  • There is a debate over the effectiveness of Libya's air defense system compared to those of Iraq and Yugoslavia, with differing opinions on the likelihood of success in neutralizing it.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views on the necessity and feasibility of military intervention in Libya. While some agree on the need for a no-fly zone, others highlight the complexities and potential risks involved, indicating that the discussion remains unresolved with multiple competing perspectives.

Contextual Notes

Participants note the potential for high civilian casualties if military action is taken without careful consideration of the air defense strategies employed by Ghaddafi's forces. There are also references to the limitations of military operations in urban environments and the challenges of maintaining air superiority.

  • #31
Proton Soup said:
OK, so do you think Libya is the worst humanitarian crisis in the world now? i really don't know. maybe it is, but it would be nice to see some kind of triage system set in place. then we could break the cycle of only getting excited about crises that also involve assets.

By no means do I think it's the worst, nor do I see that as an excuse. I'd add.. most humanitarian crises aren't so easily adressed as a NATO air-blockade.
 
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  • #32
nismaratwork said:
By no means do I think it's the worst, nor do I see that as an excuse. I'd add.. most humanitarian crises aren't so easily adressed as a NATO air-blockade.

i'm going to go out on a limb here and agree with Russ that you will just be making it worse.
 
  • #33
Proton Soup said:
i'm going to go out on a limb here and agree with Russ that you will just be making it worse.

Well, I can't say that you're wrong, you might be right after all. I have no special knowledge here, so I'm just expressing my frusteration, and my beliefs. I'm aware of the potential for blowback, but I think that's coming no matter what we do.

Still, who knows...
 
  • #34
nismaratwork said:
Well, I can't say that you're wrong, you might be right after all. I have no special knowledge here, so I'm just expressing my frusteration, and my beliefs. I'm aware of the potential for blowback, but I think that's coming no matter what we do.

Still, who knows...

you never know what sorts of things may be going on in the background. rebels may already have assistance from various sources.
 
  • #35
Proton Soup said:
you never know what sorts of things may be going on in the background. rebels may already have assistance from various sources.

Doubtless... but it may not be sources we want to see involved.
 
  • #36
I think we can now conclude that Libya has begun, if not fully engaged in, a civil war. This is going to be profoundly ugly.
 

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