Is Offshore Oil Drilling Truly Safe?

[Cyrus]

The impact of a plane crash versus a massive oil slick is comparing apples to sprockets. I don't know what you're on about here, but your defense of this has gone from reasonable, to equivocation and what seems to be a personal agenda. edit: by the way, onboard OXYGEN tanks exploded, not the fuel tanks.

http://www.ntsb.gov/Publictn/2000/AAR0003.htm

The National Transportation Safety Board determines that the probable cause of the TWA flight 800 accident was an explosion of the center wing fuel tank (CWT), resulting from ignition of the flammable fuel/air mixture in the tank. The source of ignition energy for the explosion could not be determined with certainty, but, of the sources evaluated by the investigation, the most likely was a short circuit outside of the CWT that allowed excessive voltage to enter it through electrical wiring associated with the fuel quantity indication system.

Unless you have a link that specifies otherwise.

P.S. Oh look, Gen. Russel Honore is advocating a reasonable approach: an agency like that which regulates nuclear energy. Cyrus, you're taking a lot of shots at anyone who disagrees with your hidden premise. How about sharing some sources for your views, instead of simply wielding doubt and moral equivocation as a bludgeon?

No: it's quite simple. This is a physics forum. That means people here should know and understand the scientific method. The mantra is: shut up and calculate. Not sit around and speculate. I see people talking out of their butts left and right as to what did or didn't happen, what should or shouldn't be done. Discuss this issue using facts.

You can see the post directly above mine as a prime example of what I'm talking about.

 

[Cyrus]

No, it only means that the standards are shams, and the current standards are inadequate to protect the publicly-owned resources surrounding the off-shore rigs.

Cite for me specifically the standards you are referring to, please.

 

[Shalashaska]

So change the regulations.



I'd be interested to know this track record you speak of (Not being sarcastic).



No, it's called http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabilistic_risk_assessment"



I never said that.



I'd like some sources and, if/when necessary, an independent investigation by experts to determine the cause of the problem and the role of BP.

@Confused portion: allowing an unsafe practice to keep the price of exploration down = indirect subsidy.

For the rest, you want me to do a Google search for you, so that you can learn about BP's leaks in Alaska, and Trans Global's publicly available record? This isn't an issue of peer reviewed articles or the concept of risk assessment, which by the way, requires that the people involved care about or appreciate the risk. I don't see any evidence of the latter, and the track record indicates that the former may also be true.

If you want sources on something this easy, please, just do a search. Here are a few examples, so that you get a sense of how easy it is:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...il-cases-over-alaskan-oil-spills-1660020.html

http://gliving.com/bp-pleads-guilty-to-negligent-oil-spill/

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1632342820070217

example of harm: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War_oil_spill

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/92/EVOSWEB_013_oiled_bird3.jpg

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63T4HT20100430

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126373753 (npr, sourcing NOAA)

 

[Cyrus]

@Confused portion: allowing an unsafe practice to keep the price of exploration down = indirect subsidy. ...

I am under no obligation to do research on "factual" statements you present.

But: I do thank you for those links!

 

[Shalashaska]

I am under no obligation to do research on "factual" statements you present.

True, I will send you a PM regarding my view of this and other statements, because really, this is just disruptive to a thread.

P.S. You're right about TWA 800, I hadn't looked into that in a while, and it was the fuel-air mixture plus an arcing event. Oddly, this helps to support a notion that inerting systems should be employed, and my question to you is: what evidence do you have that the proper equipment in that case, and in the oil rig would make each venture prohibitively expensive? Please cite extensively. You've been making some explicit statements yourself (the 1 billion dollar rig) and more. I think it's time to support them with figures from independent sources (no Sierra Club, no Oil Industry).

 

[Cyrus]

True, I will send you a PM regarding my view of this and other statements, because really, this is just disruptive to a thread.

No, it's not. If you make a statement provide the facts to back it. Its part of the forum rules. This is very simple.

 

[Shalashaska]

No, it's not. If you make a statement provide the facts to back it. Its part of the forum rules. This is very simple.

I didn't mean posting facts would be disruptive, I meant that my post would be off-topic and personal, and my understanding is that such should be left out of threads. You're being quite condescending, but we're not supposed to take shots at each other or be combative. I'm trying to manage that, but you're making it somewhat difficult. Perhaps when you follow those rules and show the facts to back up your position that accidents happen "all the time", and the cost becoming prohibitive (especially for the valve in question) the situation will be different, but as of now it is lacking.

 

[Cyrus]

I didn't mean posting facts would be disruptive, I meant that my post would be off-topic and personal, and my understanding is that such should be left out of threads. You're being quite condescending, but we're not supposed to take shots at each other or be combative. I'm trying to manage that, but you're making it somewhat difficult. Perhaps when you follow those rules and show the facts to back up your position that accidents happen "all the time", and the cost becoming prohibitive (especially for the valve in question) is lacking.

Then you misunderstood the point of what I'm saying. Again, it is not enough to sit there and say "see, if only they had replaced that valve for a million more bucks. They were so cheap, and look what happened!" You have to look at the overall extent and complexity of all the critical components that "could" be upgraded. Then you have to selectively pick which are deemed to be the best allocation of money to "beef up" and which are not. For example if those pipe valves never had problems in rigs for 10+ years, it doesn't make sense to spend the money there. If (for example), on the other hand, the pipe lines are notorious for problems, then spending the money there is more justified. As I said earlier, such an analysis needs to be carried out by experts to determine the cause of this problem and how responsible BP is. Anything else is pure speculation - and nonsense.

 

[Shalashaska]

Then you misunderstood the point of what I'm saying. Again, it is not enough to sit there and say "see, if only they had replaced that valve for a million more bucks. They were so cheap, and look what happened!" You have to look at the overall extent and complexity of all the critical components that "could" be upgraded. Then you have to selectively pick which are deemed to be the best allocation of money to "beef up" and which are not. For example if those pipe valves never had problems in rigs for 10+ years, it doesn't make sense to spend the money there. If (for example), on the other hand, the pipe lines are notorious for problems, then spending the money there is more justified. As I said earlier[\b], such an analysis needs to be carried out by experts to determine the cause of this problem and how responsible BP is.

This is at best a partial response to the questions I've posed, and responses without citations.

 

[Cyrus]

This is at best a partial response to the questions I've posed, and responses without citations.

I think you're a nice guy and you care Shalashaka (Honestly, I do), but you need to think analytically.

 

[Shalashaska]

What a joke. I think you're a nice guy and you care Shalashaka (Honestly, I do), but you need to think analytically.

Well, I wanted to PM this to you, but your inbox is full, so here.

Daniel, you're too young to be so rigid in your thinking, and to be so dismissive, and disingenuous. Don't expect a response when you are unable or unwilling to provide the same evidence you demand from others. I don't care if you think I'm nice, or a complete bastard with his head in his back-passage. I only care that you provide evidence for the statements, both implicit and explicit that you have made over the last few pages. Barring that, I don't see how this can proceed.

I care about this event, and intellectual honesty (which is why, I didn't hesitate to admit how wrong I was regarding TWA 800), and the impact on biological systems with which I believe I am more familiar than you. I wouldn't tell you to put a canard on your model, so by the same token, you might want to consider that everyone who disagrees with your (experience in aerospace?) monolithic view of risk assessment is not simply being "'ishy-washy'. You can't provide accurate analysis of a situation that you perceive only as a matter of risk-reward in a financial sense.

P.S. Goodnight for now, I hope in the intervening hours events unfold in such a manner that some of this speculation becomes observed events.

 

[zomgwtf]

Weird, I always thought that Cyrus's real name was actually Cyrus. Says so on the bottom of his webpage... yes I creeped around your webpage before Cyrus... if that is your webpage. Hmph.

 

[rootX]

You can't provide accurate analysis of a situation that you perceive only as a matter of risk-reward in a financial sense.

I don't see why that would be wrong.

I would be interested in knowing if similar disasters occur at present frequency if we will be in danger at some point in the long run.

 

[Cyrus]

Weird, I always thought that Cyrus's real name was actually Cyrus. Says so on the bottom of his webpage... yes I creeped around your webpage before Cyrus... if that is your webpage. Hmph.

I thought so too!

 

[Cyrus]

Daniel, you're too young to be so rigid in your thinking, and to be so dismissive, and disingenuous. Don't expect a response when you are unable or unwilling to provide the same evidence you demand from others. I don't care if you think I'm nice, or a complete bastard with his head in his back-passage. I only care that you provide evidence for the statements, both implicit and explicit that you have made over the last few pages. Barring that, I don't see how this can proceed.

I don't know who Daniel is... (I tend to leave my PM box full because I generally don't like communicating though that medium, it's nothing personal).

I care about this event, and intellectual honesty (which is why, I didn't hesitate to admit how wrong I was regarding TWA 800), and the impact on biological systems with which I believe I am more familiar than you.

I never claimed any knowledge on the impact to biological systems. Please cite, specifically, where I did so in previous posts.

I wouldn't tell you to put a canard on your model, so by the same token, you might want to consider that everyone who disagrees with your (experience in aerospace?) monolithic view of risk assessment is not simply being "'ishy-washy'. You can't provide accurate analysis of a situation that you perceive only as a matter of risk-reward in a financial sense.

I never provided any analysis of anything. Again, where did I say this? I simply said, we need to wait for such an analysis before making idle speculation left and right. I honestly don't know how you missed that.

P.S. Goodnight for now, I hope in the intervening hours events unfold in such a manner that some of this speculation becomes observed events.

Agreed.

 

[Shalashaska]

I don't know who Daniel is... (I tend to leave my PM box full because I generally don't like communicating though that medium, it's nothing personal).

I never claimed any knowledge on the impact to biological systems. Please cite, specifically, where I did so in previous posts. I never provided any analysis of anything. Again, where did I say this? I simply said, we need to wait for such an analysis before making idle speculation left and right. I honestly don't know how you missed that. Agreed.

Your claim is implicit in the notion that you can assess this risk. If you can't, then really what you're saying about the money involved is meaningless as anything save an academic exercise. For the rest, incoming!

If that's the case, you need to re-evaluate your position on this moral objection. It happens all the time in real world engineering. What you need to remember is that it may only cost $1M for a better valve, but that valve is just one of thousands upon thousands of components in a system that could "just" be upgraded "in case." And then you end up with a billion dollar oil rig that no one can afford to use.

No one got the Daniel reference... what a pity. Daniel in the lion's den, oh well.

For the quote above, here would be the questions raised:

Thousands of components, couched in the notion of "upgrading" rather than a basic safety standard. Your conclusion is a rig that would be prohibitively expensive. Please cite.

You suggest I re-evaluate my moral position, which implies you have one here as well. Please share.

That does not mean there are no process-control standards on oil rigs.

What standards are there, that are relevant to this? What do you call a standard which is held in countries from Brazil to most of European nations. The standard of a blowout prevention valve was not employed, even though it is affordable to other nations who profit from oil exploration. In the absence of that, other measures would be meaningless under that kind of pressure (210,000 gallons per day from a well-head), and THAT is the "matter of time" issue. This is putting aside the possible causes for the explosion, which I am not going to speculate about.

Then you misunderstood the point of what I'm saying. Again, it is not enough to sit there and say "see, if only they had replaced that valve for a million more bucks. They were so cheap, and look what happened!" You have to look at the overall extent and complexity of all the critical components that "could" be upgraded. Then you have to selectively pick which are deemed to be the best allocation of money to "beef up" and which are not. For example if those pipe valves never had problems in rigs for 10+ years, it doesn't make sense to spend the money there. If (for example), on the other hand, the pipe lines are notorious for problems, then spending the money there is more justified. As I said earlier, such an analysis needs to be carried out by experts to determine the cause of this problem and how responsible BP is. Anything else is pure speculation - and nonsense.

A lot of ifs there, but still being used to make an argument that is fairly important. This statement combined with your quote about risk assessment raises the following question: Without understanding the environmental impact of past and future slicks, and with no definitive statements or evidence, how are you engaging in anything but speculation in a different direction? While we're at it, you said pages ago that it seems BP is at fault, but that evidence of gross negligence is absent. While I agree with the former, and the latter is a matter of record in USA courts (see a link I provided you re a settlement in Alaska), both were assumptions or guesses on your part, which you then proceed to decry and challenge if others make it without semantic uncertainty couching each phrase.

As for an implicit view,speculation as to the cause of the explosion is purely speculative, but the absence of a standard safety feature is not. Putting rhetoric aside, you present a dual view, that speculation should be minimized (very wise), and on the other hand you speculate about the affordability of some equipment albeit always in the hypothetical. It seems your agenda is based in your own industry, which is an understandable emotional reaction, but unwarranted. Aerospace is vilified for a number of fair and unfair reasons, but above all people are just afraid of something falling out of the sky on them. That, is a very unreasonable fear, given a reasonable assessment of risk, but it doesn't qualify you to assess the risk of a far more global event such as this. To reference such a notion, implies that you believe it applies to this situation and that you know how to do so. Risk assessment in ignorance isn't really an assessment, it's a kid skateboarding on a rail without a helmet.

 

[Astronuc]

Apparently BP dismissed the possibility of such an accident, and apparently they did not have contingency plans for such an accident, or perhaps they simply expected the government to step in with a major effort, which seems to be the case.

BP plan deemed major spill from Gulf well unlikely
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_gulf_oil_spill

Meanwhile - Towns Scramble To Protect Gulf Coast From Oil Spill
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126419688

Initially, the government and British oil giant BP did not make the booms available because the site of landfall was a moving target — dependent on the tides, winds and weather. Officials said they waited until they had a better idea of where the spill was headed before they put all of the booms in place.

Then, there was a false start Thursday, when parish officials were notified that all boatmen would have to take a four-hour training course if they were going to help lay boom. The training session was taking place on Friday afternoon, as local officials waited to see how much of the oil-absorbing barrier they would be given.

Fromherz said parish officials asked for 75 miles of boom to put around the spawning grounds of the region's famous brown shrimp, crabs and oyster beds, but on Friday morning he didn't know how much they would get.

. . . .

I listened to one interview with a mayor of a coastal town. He pondered why BP didn't have a plan B, because obviously plan A failed.

 

[Shalashaska]

Oh hell, the winds have blown the sheen ahead of the main mass of oil and it's already hitting the Mississippi river delta wildlife reserve. NOAA is saying that the slick has already hit shrimp and oyster beds in the grass beds. This truly gets worse every day, and the surfactants they're using is a bit of a mixed bag given the regions effected.

I'm watching one Dr. Callaway estimate roughly 20 years for the grass beds that support shrimp and oysters alone to recover. Birds have already been effected, and as the winds shift this slick is predicted to "slide" along most of the gulf coast. BP apparatus mismanaged this risk, and they are going to be absolutely screwed in the MANY lawsuits already emerging.

 

[turbo]

Apparently BP dismissed the possibility of such an accident, and apparently they did not have contingency plans for such an accident, or perhaps they simply expected the government to step in with a major effort, which seems to be the case.

Our local paper carried a story this morning citing the failure of blowout preventers at a rate of over 50 a year, so such an accident is quite possible, and BP knew it. I'll see if I can find a link.

Here you go:
http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/04/30/461704/us-report-found-failure-of-offshore.html

 

[Ronnin]

And they just now got Galveston all nice and cleaned up after the hurricane. I guess i'll be skipping going down there for a while. BP will pay heavy, both financially and politically. Unfortunately, this will hurt so many companies that so many will go out of business before any suits are settled.

 

[Astronuc]

The western Gulf may be protected. It appears the currents and wind will carry the oil toward the east. It will affect the delta, eastern La, Mississippi, Alabama and the panhandle of Florida.

One estimate puts the spill at an order of magnitude above 5,000 bbl/d. In the worst case, perhaps the spill rate would approach the production rate of the developed well.

While "the Coast Guard estimates now that at least 1.6 million gallons of oil have spilled since the April 20 explosion that killed 11 workers", "Ian R. MacDonald, an oceanography professor at Florida State University, said his examination of Coast Guard charts and satellite images indicated that 8 million to 9 million gallons had already spilled by April 28."

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100501/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gulf_oil_spill

 

[pallidin]

I don't understand.
In this day and age of technology is it truly difficult to stop this?

The well-head is of a certain diameter.

A tubular structure is made(in one day) that fits over the well-head.
While still spewing oil, this tubular structure is collared-tightened below the well-head mouth. This would not be a problem as oil flow would not significantly restrict placement or tightening. The methods of collar tightening are varied.

This "containment" over-pipe is very robust and has a shut-off valve near the top.

Once done, close the valve of the new over-pipe. All is good.

 

[Cyrus]

Your claim is implicit in the notion that you can assess this risk. If you can't, then really what you're saying about the money involved is meaningless as anything save an academic exercise. For the rest, incoming!

Of course you can assess the risk, why do you think otherwise? Risk assessment has inherently subjective components to it.

Thousands of components, couched in the notion of "upgrading" rather than a basic safety standard.

I never said anything of the sort. Please reread what I wrote, and what I did say does not require a citation - only common sense.

You suggest I re-evaluate my moral position, which implies you have one here as well. Please share.

I already elucidated my point about risk analysis.

What standards are there, that are relevant to this? What do you call a standard which is held in countries from Brazil to most of European nations. The standard of a blowout prevention valve was not employed, even though it is affordable to other nations who profit from oil exploration. In the absence of that, other measures would be meaningless under that kind of pressure (210,000 gallons per day from a well-head), and THAT is the "matter of time" issue. This is putting aside the possible causes for the explosion, which I am not going to speculate about.

Your above reply is a misreading and/or misunderstanding of my reply to Turbo. Again, you should reread what I wrote.

A lot of ifs there, but still being used to make an argument that is fairly important. This statement combined with your quote about risk assessment raises the following question: Without understanding the environmental impact of past and future slicks, and with no definitive statements or evidence, how are you engaging in anything but speculation in a different direction? While we're at it, you said pages ago that it seems BP is at fault, but that evidence of gross negligence is absent.

Dammit - no, I did not! I did not say "gross negligence is absent." I said, https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=2695880&postcount=71", that no one has shown (in this thread or through an investigation) that BP has been negligent concerning this incident. So that you understand, that means they may or may not be found negligent after an investigation is conducted. But for now you cannot say that they are - you simply don't know yet. And so you don't play games with my words again, you guys posted links about BPs past history only after I raised that objection.

It seems your agenda is based in your own industry, which is an understandable emotional reaction, but unwarranted. Aerospace is vilified for a number of fair and unfair reasons, but above all people are just afraid of something falling out of the sky on them. That, is a very unreasonable fear, given a reasonable assessment of risk, but it doesn't qualify you to assess the risk of a far more global event such as this. To reference such a notion, implies that you believe it applies to this situation and that you know how to do so. Risk assessment in ignorance isn't really an assessment, it's a kid skateboarding on a rail without a helmet.

I have no idea why or how the above is relevant. I was not applying anything about aerospace to the topic at hand, in fact I did not get risk assessment from my aerospace background.

 

[rootX]

Dammit - no, I did not! I did not say "gross negligence is absent." I said, https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=2695880&postcount=71", that no one has shown (in this thread or through an investigation) that BP has been negligent concerning this incident. So that you understand, that means they may or may not be found negligent after an investigation is conducted. But for now you cannot say that they are - you simply don't know yet. And so you don't play games with my words again, you guys posted links about BPs past history only after I raised that objection.

BP earned good profit this year: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8645740.stm. I doubt if media/government/people would treat it with fairness after seeing their profits.

 

[MotoH]

MIAMI – Teams of lawyers from around the nation are mobilizing for a gargantuan legal battle over the massive Gulf Coast oil spill, filing multiple lawsuits in recent days that together could dwarf the half-billion dollars awarded in the Exxon Valdez disaster two decades ago.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100501/ap_on_bi_ge/us_oil_spill_lawsuits"

And now it starts.

 

[Cyrus]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100501/ap_on_bi_ge/us_oil_spill_lawsuits"

And now it starts.

The sharks smell oil in the water.

 

[Shalashaska]

The sharks smell oil in the water.

Possibly because there's oil in the water...

26 lawsuits and counting!

 

[turbo]

Shrimpers and oystermen are looking at losing at least an entire season's income, absent a miracle. They can't hang back and wait for some massive class-action suit to creep its way through the courts while they lose their boats, their berths, and their homes.

Litigation can be nasty and contentious, but it may be the only way to settle individual claims in such a way as to prevent the bankruptcy of individual fishermen. The poorer fishermen with smaller operations will be at a disadvantage because lawyers will not take cases on contingent-fee basis without a chance of a big payout on settlement. The smaller operations may die out before any class-action suit is settled.

 

[Shalashaska]

Shrimpers and oystermen are looking at losing at least an entire season's income, absent a miracle. They can't hang back and wait for some massive class-action suit to creep its way through the courts while they lose their boats, their berths, and their homes.

Litigation can be nasty and contentious, but it may be the only way to settle individual claims in such a way as to prevent the bankruptcy of individual fishermen. The poorer fishermen with smaller operation will be at a disadvantage because lawyers will not take cases on contingent-fee basis without a chance of a big payout on settlement. The smaller operations may die out before any class-action suit is settled.

Outrage is a major factor in the public's assessment of risk, and losing food they enjoy, seeing what they believe to be "the little guy" and animals suffer immediately, compared with a (formerly) profitable oil company, the outrage is only going to grow. BP and Trans-Global clearly screwed the pooch here to one degree or another, but our government allowed them the latitude to do that. Let's face it, the harm done now rests on a lot of shoulders, but BP is going to be the one to take a hard one in the chops. That doesn't really make these lawsuits anything more than a process of getting meager recompense for the class members, and HUGE payouts for the lawyers involved. They will also serve as a means to flagellate BP and divert attention from our personal and governmental culpability in this.

In the end, I can live with that, and utterly lack in sympathy for BP. By the same token, I'm not filled with the milk of human kindness for the people who've been overfishing the Gulf, or farmers who allow runoff to create hypoxic zones, and politicians who improperly assessed risk, but still call it "good". This is going to be decades in the cleaning and recovery... BP "bought the ticket" now they get to "take the ride", with all of the unfair and fair vilification and lawsuits inherent in such a process. If they wanted to avoid that, they should have accurately assessed risk, and employed a 500,000 USD valve despite our own (under W.) lax regulations compares with other countries.

 

[mheslep]

Shrimpers and oystermen are looking at losing at least an entire season's income, absent a miracle. They can't hang back and wait for some massive class-action suit to creep its way through the courts while they lose their boats, their berths, and their homes.

Litigation can be nasty and contentious, but it may be the only way to settle individual claims in such a way as to prevent the bankruptcy of individual fishermen. The poorer fishermen with smaller operations will be at a disadvantage because lawyers will not take cases on contingent-fee basis without a chance of a big payout on settlement. The smaller operations may die out before any class-action suit is settled.

BP is hiring some of them to clean up the oil
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-AU996_Spill_G_20100430211543.jpg
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...5215714243494620.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read

The company is also hiring shrimpers—who stand to lose the critical spring catch to the oil slick—to clean up the oil as it drifts toward the coast.

Nearly 1,000 fishermen, many wearing white rubber boots, packed a school gym Friday for an initial training session. They must take a formal course to get certified in oil clean-up techniques, such as laying down containment booms. Many said they had no choice