sylas
Science Advisor
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Ivan Seeking said:Check my math here, but at 450,000 tons, and 7 lbs per gallon, I get 128 million gallons. The reasonable upper limit on this spill suggested so far is that this could release 90 million gallons. The Valdez released about 18 million gallons of heavy crude.
Edit: You were using tonnes, not tons, so that spill would have been more like 142 million gallons.
The total size of the Ixtoc I spill is an estimate: it flowed for about 9 months before being capped. The NOAA incident report I cited did not give a value.
Wikipedia Largest oil spills suggests 454–480 thousand tonnes (the table heading says tons, and I think it may be incorrect) and cites a reference saying "An estimated 140 million gallons of oil", which is about what you estimated. So yes, the maths is fine. The magnitude of the disaster is not only the total volume of oil, but also where it goes and how it all plays out. I'm a bit surprised there haven't been more comparisons between Deepwater and Ixtoc I in the reporting of this disaster. I certainly hope they can keep this one below the 90 million upper bound you mention.
sylas
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