News Is Overpopulation an Important Issue? Examining Solutions

[ThomasT]

Recognize that the fertility rates for most of the world's largest countries have http://www.google.com/publicdata/ex...8324800000&tend=1279512000000&hl=en&dl=en_US", including China.

Yes, this is what I gather from the stats I've looked at.

India is on tract to fall below replacement in the next ten years.

Ok.

This leaves Nigeria and Pakistan as the explosive growth centers, requiring attention.

Yes, and most of Africa actually, according to stuff I've looked at. Also, there are a few countries in South America and the Caribbean that the US might be concerned about as possible sources of unwanted immigrants as their populations grow. It's also important to consider that the people in the regions of relatively high fertility rates are consuming far far fewer resources than the people in the regions with lower rates and around zero growth (excluding increases due to immigration).

Some major countries like Japan and S. Korea have a combination of extreme low birth rates and low immigration meaning that, should the trend continue, within several generations time they won't exist in anything more than geographic terms.

What do you mean by "they won't exist in anything more than geographic terms." Their populations aren't going to decrease to zero.

It seems that the eastern and western European and Scandinavian countries are also not part of the overpopulation problem.

 

[ThomasT]

... if the cultural drivers for low fertility rate are extended to the rest of the world, we'll reach an equilibrium population level that is indefinitely sustainable.

This seems like a reasonable assumption. The big problem is of course in getting those cultural drivers to take hold, transitioning from historical regional cultural perspectives to the necessary modern worldview.

 

[Evo]

Darn you Russ_Watters, you should check your bed tonight for a big fish!

After my shows are over, I do have information from as recent as 3-11 from experts saying the surplus has severely dwindled. Is a lot of the trouble in Africa to do with corrupt governments, yes. Is a lot of trouble in Africa that they won't use the tons of GM seed we've sent them that would produce greater yields in their soil/climates, yes. They fear that their exports to the EU, that is decidely against GM, will hurt their sales, so they gladly cut off their own nose to spite their face.

Anyway, it's psycho food night on tv, so I will only be looking in sporadically.

 

[ThomasT]

To sum up, I think "overpopulation" is a myth that hides the real problem: politics/culture. The political/cultural problems that hold back development are vastly more serious than the existing and potential technical and resource problems.

I have to agree with this.

 

[Evo]

The above dovetails with my post and implies that if the cultural drivers for low fertility rate are extended to the rest of the world, we'll reach an equilibrium population level that is indefinitely sustainable.

I don't think that an ideal population is one that takes a huge effort to sustain, which is what we are faced with right now.

Imo, we have too many people on this planet right now. A realistic population is one that sustains itself without extraordinary means, and that applies to all parts of the world.

 

[russ_watters]

Darn you Russ_Watters, you should check your bed tonight for a big fish!

Salmon please - I'm grillin tonight!

Is a lot of trouble in Africa that they won't use the tons of GM seed we've sent them that would produce greater yields in their soil/climates, yes.

I can't imagine a political problem more disastrously self-destructive. Makes me want to slap a warlord.

I don't think that an ideal population is one that takes a huge effort to sustain, which is what we are faced with right now.

What's "a huge effort"? Right now, we pay farmers not to farm to artificially pump up the prices of our crops, plus pay them extra for the crops they do farm because the supply is so high and demand so low that the prices are too low (for someone's taste...not sure who ). Sounds like a lot of effort designed to not support people, if you ask me!

 

[ThomasT]

I don't think that an ideal population is one that takes a huge effort to sustain, which is what we are faced with right now.

Imo, we have too many people on this planet right now. A realistic population is one that sustains itself without extraordinary means, and that applies to all parts of the world.

This makes sense. So, a good (necessary) goal would seem to be negative population growth worldwide. Is it a realistic goal? Not right now, because of long standing cultural and political practices to the contrary, but I can see it happening eventually.

 

[ThomasT]

What's "a huge effort"? Right now, we pay farmers not to farm to artificially pump up the prices of our crops, plus pay them extra for the crops they do farm because the supply is so high and demand so low that the prices are too low (for someone's taste...not sure who ). Sounds like a lot of effort designed to not support people, if you ask me!

Good point. Still, it wouldn't be a bad thing to aim for a world negative population growth. Would it?

 

[Evo]

Right now, we pay farmers not to farm to artificially pump up the prices of our crops, plus pay them extra for the crops they do farm because the supply is so high and demand so low that the prices are too low (for someone's taste...not sure who ). Sounds like a lot of effort designed to not support people, if you ask me!

That's supposed to artificially inflate prices to keep farmers farming.

Would independant farmers stay farmers without artificially inflated prices? Should agriculture become a government project to reduce food costs? Maybe. I don't see any reason to continue to subsidize farmers and charge Americans through the nose for food when the government could take over. Of course this kind of smacks of the "New deal" practices that turned out horribly wrong in some cases.

But it is something that needs to be addressed. In order to make agriculture highly productive, the modern farmer has to buy outrageously expensive equipment, pesticides, fertilizers. Without these things, production would fall off drastically. We have productive farms at a high cost. (I have relatives that are major farmers and chicken ranchers) and it's very upsetting, to me.

 

[256bits]

Seed for food crops around the world was historically that a farmer can use you use a percentage of the previous year's yield for plantation of this year's crop. GM corporations such as Novartis and Monsanto would have you believe through their public relations that their products will solve all agricultural problems from disease to world hunger. In fact, through the patents granted to these products, no farmer can use a ssed from these products without their consent. These companies are not altruistic to say the least but would like to monopolize the global market. At least Monsanto, but only through intense pressure, has recinded one of its goals to splice an infertility gene in their agriculural poducts - ie a farmer would have to buy seed each and every year. Problems with GM agricultural products are cross-pollination, reduced bio-diversity, health problems in humans, environmental concerns, contamination of the food supply and economics. The older method of picking winners and losers for a better plant was slow and gene-splicing in a lab solves that problem . The return on investment of research that GM corporations want by charging dollars for seed is justified. The subsequent control the seed market is not something I am in favour of.

 

[Evo]

Seed for food crops around the world was historically that a farmer can use you use a percentage of the previous year's yield for plantation of this year's crop. GM corporations such as Novartis and Monsanto would have you believe through their public relations that their products will solve all agricultural problems from disease to world hunger. In fact, through the patents granted to these products, no farmer can use a ssed from these products without their consent. These companies are not altruistic to say the least but would like to monopolize the global market. At least Monsanto, but only through intense pressure, has recinded one of its goals to splice an infertility gene in their agriculural poducts - ie a farmer would have to buy seed each and every year. Problems with GM agricultural products are cross-pollination, reduced bio-diversity, health problems in humans, environmental concerns, contamination of the food supply and economics. The older method of picking winners and losers for a better plant was slow and gene-splicing in a lab solves that problem . The return on investment of research that GM corporations want by charging dollars for seed is justified. The subsequent control the seed market is not something I am in favour of.

Fears associated with GM seed are not substantiated. I don't think the companies should be so greedy if their seed cross polinates naturally and creates a superior seed.

I had a rare opportunity to get to know the father of the Vice President of Mobile Oil, in Houston, TX when I was in my early 20's. Turns out that the guy was a rose hybridizer that held several patents. I wanted to be a horticulturalist as one of my many loves. I learned a lot from him, and a lot of it was politics in the hybridisation of plants. I guess all fields of science are highly political. It really disillusioned me.

I'll pass on the best advice he ever gave me, it was how he made his millions. "buy a piece of land and forget about it, someday, someone will come to you and offer you a fortune for it". Well, the land he bought turned out to be the most valuable land around Houston back in the 20's and he did indeed make a vast fortune. Unfortunately, any land I could afford is still swamp land, so I was not able to take his advice.

 

[256bits]

Definitely a lot of politics in gene-splicing technology from both sides.

 

[mheslep]

...
What do you mean by "they won't exist in anything more than geographic terms." Their populations aren't going to decrease to zero.

Simply that if a group of people continues a trend of replacing every two people with one it doesn't take many iterations before they cease being a group.

 

[Proton Soup]

My point from some of the above is that room is not the issue, at least not a primary one. Culutral, political, and economic systems are the issue from what I can observe. Given the woeful state of those factors in much of Africa I'd say the continent has nothing close to enough room or resources to prevent disasters, the same goes for (say) Haiti. I see the one million killed in the Rwandan massacre and the unnecessary misery in Haiti caused by the earthquake despite large foreign (attempts at) donations as evidence of this.

yes, that is a big part of it, and Haiti is an interesting case. because the other side of the island is the Dominican Republic, and they aren't the basket case that Haiti is. are these people not closely related? what could be the difference? it certainly must be culture and politics. so we've got to find a way to breach that sensitive topic of cultural diversity and just outright state that some cultures provide superior outcomes compared to others.

not that all of us can't improve, of course. for example, much of Cuba's poverty has been a direct result of us kicking the **** out of them with sanctions.

 

[mheslep]

The above dovetails with my post and implies that if the cultural drivers for low fertility rate are extended to the rest of the world, we'll reach an equilibrium population level that is indefinitely sustainable.

Agreed.

 

[WhoWee]

yes, that is a big part of it, and Haiti is an interesting case. because the other side of the island is the Dominican Republic, and they aren't the basket case that Haiti is. are these people not closely related? what could be the difference? it certainly must be culture and politics. so we've got to find a way to breach that sensitive topic of cultural diversity and just outright state that some cultures provide superior outcomes compared to others.

not that all of us can't improve, of course. for example, much of Cuba's poverty has been a direct result of us kicking the **** out of them with sanctions.

A dependence on external support restricts self sufficiency - doesn't it? What did Russia do to improve the economy of Cuba - did they build finance a tourist industry (as the US Black Caucus wanted to do) or perhaps assist them in developing a manufacturing base? Cuba's economy seemed to stop growing when the US investors were chased away - when Castro took control. At some point direct investment into productive and competitive assets is required.

 

[Proton Soup]

A dependence on external support restricts self sufficiency - doesn't it? What did Russia do to improve the economy of Cuba - did they build finance a tourist industry (as the US Black Caucus wanted to do) or perhaps assist them in developing a manufacturing base? Cuba's economy seemed to stop growing when the US investors were chased away - when Castro took control. At some point direct investment into productive and competitive assets is required.

self-sufficiency is not a very good argument. no one is self-sufficient on a small enough scale.

yes, cuba subsisted for a long time on the soviets paying them a premium for things like sugar. which could work OK until the soviets had money problems of their own and couldn't support them. and no, it's not like cuba chose the best economic system, but still much of the problem for them was indeed our economic warfare against them. they actually have some resorts now, and europeans can visit, but not we americans. even venezuela's president seems to have some trust in their medical system (and probably much more privacy there).

cuba does have problems, but it's not all internal.

 

[mheslep]

Interesting time history of fertility rates, all countries 1960 to now, courtesy Google's PDE. Some large countries selected to track. I'd thought China's rate would have dropped the most over time but it appears Mexico and S. Korea dropped faster.

Hit the play button.
http://www.google.com/publicdata/ex...R&ifdim=country&pit=1250654400000&hl=en&dl=en

 

[Physics-Learner]

i tend to be an isolationist. fix my own country, and let others fix their countries. curtailing our growth does not help when our politicians entice immigration.

do not allow immigration and keep up the economy - a very easy solution to overpopulation.

 

[WhoWee]

i tend to be an isolationist. fix my own country, and let others fix their countries. curtailing our growth does not help when our politicians entice immigration.

do not allow immigration and keep up the economy - a very easy solution to overpopulation.

I'm not sure the President of the US agrees with your position.
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Oba...r/2011/08/19/id/408008?s=al&promo_code=CE10-1

"Ariz. Gov. Jan Brewer: Obama Acts Like He's Above Law on Immigration"

 

[Physics-Learner]

we have been encouraging immigration way before obama, so that can't be blamed totally on him. the wealthy are intentionally doing what they can to have its population dependent on them.

we, the people, really need to start taking control back. as i understand it, this is the main objective of the tea party.

 

[WhoWee]

we have been encouraging immigration way before obama, so that can't be blamed totally on him. the wealthy are intentionally doing what they can to have its population dependent on them.

we, the people, really need to start taking control back. as i understand it, this is the main objective of the tea party.

This isn't about "blame" - this is a current issue.

 

[OmCheeto]

we have been encouraging immigration way before obama, so that can't be blamed totally on him. the wealthy are intentionally doing what they can to have its population dependent on them.

we, the people, really need to start taking control back. as i understand it, this is the main objective of the tea party.

I thought the Koch brothers were funding the Tea Party?

Anyways, over population is a serious, localized problem. How many boat loads of Americans do you see trying to escape to Haiti, or boat loads of Italians trying to escape to Tunisia, or Brits escaping to Pakistan?

I'm afraid my solution to the problem might seem a bit too eugenic to most people, so I'll keep it to myself.

 

[WhoWee]

I thought the Koch brothers were funding the Tea Party?

Did you read that in one of these threads?

 

[OmCheeto]

Did you read that in one of these threads?

I overheard it somewhere. Don't remember where.

Is US News a reliable source?

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs...-funding-koch-brothers-emerge-from-anonymity"
February 2, 2011
...
But it has now come out how involved they have been in funding Tea Party groups, Americans for Prosperity, FreedomWorks, and Citizens for a Sound Economy ($12 million).
...

Or has this been debunked?

Anyways, I thought Physics-Learner's post was a bit dichotomous, which was why I posted my comment, and also why I tried bring us back on topic, which I know will be very hard, since probably everything will be going off topic for the next 15 months.

 

[Evo]

Anyways, I thought Physics-Learner's post was a bit dichotomous, which was why I posted my comment, and also why I tried bring us back on topic, which I know will be very hard, since probably everything will be going off topic for the next 15 months.

I believe some people are going to try to hijack every thread to make it about the upcoming election. Stand by for some serious new rules in the next month or two.

 

[OmCheeto]

I believe some people are going to try to hijack every thread to make it about the upcoming election. Stand by for some serious new rules in the next month or two.

I can only imagine the volumetric increase in the; "How dare this forum infringe on my right to free speech!" posts.

I of course, will be cheering on my beloved Mentors.

But back to the topic for a moment. Physics-Learner's post:

i tend to be an isolationist. fix my own country, and let others fix their countries. curtailing our growth does not help when our politicians entice immigration.

do not allow immigration and keep up the economy - a very easy solution to overpopulation.

somewhat mirrors my comment:

...
Anyways, over population is a serious, localized problem. How many boat loads of Americans do you see trying to escape to Haiti, or boat loads of Italians trying to escape to Tunisia, or Brits escaping to Pakistan?
...

I haven't run the numbers, but I'd guess America is probably 99% immigrantly populated, and 100% if you go back about 35,000 or so years. I consider myself very lucky to occupy the last habitable, and un-overpopulated places on earth, and would be very sad to see it fill up.

Perhaps my eugenic solution could be ixnayed, if we could just show people, over the internet, all over the world, what life would/could be like if there were not so many of us.

ps. I have to leave now and go to the river. There is a deserted island with my name written all over it.

pps. My eugenics idea was to offer every male on the planet 2 months wages(tax free! Yo! Tea Partiers! I said tax free!) to get a vasectomy. Problem solved. Economics rules!

ppps. I'd be first in line. I am so broke.

 

[Proton Soup]

so... are the Koch Brothers big fans of Ron Paul?

 

[Char. Limit]

I do feel that overpopulation is a global problem (that is, it affects the entire globe), but we can give local solutions. My personal favorite: mandatory birth control to everyone under 21.

 

[OmCheeto]

I do feel that overpopulation is a global problem (that is, it affects the entire globe), but we can give local solutions. My personal favorite: mandatory birth control to everyone under 21.

Mandatory!?

Why you little fascist, communist, Marxist, do-it-my-way-or-the-highway, self centered...

umm...

When did we become so open minded, that we let our brains fall out?...


http://gresham.katu.com/news/news/4...-challenged-mother-fighting-heroin-addiction"

My other solution? Mandatory sterilization for heroin addicts.

oh wait. I just read the end of the story:

Kilburn and Gibson said they are praying that their 2-day-old son survives. Also, we did ask the boy's father if he had ever thought about using birth control and he responded "I'm getting fixed."

Two months salary about 10 years ago would have solved this problem...

Money talks... Heroin addicts are human...

ps. Char, Please marry your girlfriend and have children. Otherwise, http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/" rules.

pps. Dear Jesus, please put your hands on all the tummys and scrots of idiots, crack hoes, and heroin addicts, such that they not make more devil babies.