Is the US Economic Future Tied to Political Decisions and Global Dependencies?

[gregxy]

The folks on this forum seem quite smart and thoughtful.

Please take the attached poll and discuss the reasons for your choice.

 

[Evo]

You need to put more effort into your posts from now on.

 

[MarcoD]

I think the housing bubble collapse was bad for US citizens, but also ended a bad relation between consumers and, sometimes foreign, providers of cheap credit. The lay-offs in the finance industry means that money will follow the real economy more, which I think will translate to somewhat less consumption, but more jobs, -lower unemployment,- and a boom in US manufacturing.

With a lower external debt, and -I think- employment picking up, I would say things look pretty bright.

(Provided the Euro doesn't go bust and backlashes at the US banking sector. But I don't think it will.)

 

[ThomasT]

You need to put more effort into your posts from now on.

He asked a question. What would constitute "more" effort on his part wrt asking the question that he asked? And why does he "need" to "put more effort into (his) posts from now on"? Is that part of the PF Guidelines? And exactly how would you determine that one has put "enough effort" into their posts?

EDIT: Oh yeah, he asked us to elaborate/discuss the reasons for our choices. (Seems like a fairly good effort to me.) Anyway, I chose some unrest, standard of living will degrade, greater class separation ... because I think there will be some unrest, beyond the OWS demos, and because it seems inevitable to me that the standard of living for the majority of US workers will decrease, while the incomes of the richest 5% of Americans will continue to increase.

 

[skippy1729]

It all depends on the results of next years election. If the results are not good I am investing in long term food storage and ammo.

Skippy

 

[ThomasT]

It all depends on the results of next years election. If the results are not good I am investing in long term food storage and ammo.

Skippy

Ammo!?

 

[ThomasT]

It all depends on the results of next years election. If the results are not good I am investing in long term food storage and ammo.

Skippy

Come to think of it, that doesn't sound like a bad idea. Note to self: more canned goods and ammo. Wait a minute ... I don't own any guns. Note to self: buy some guns, then lots of ammo.

I don't like where I think this might be going.

 

[turbo]

I have guns and ammo, and two large chest freezers. I'm no survivalist nut by any means, but I was brought up to expect that people who grew food, caught fish, shot game, slaughtered livestock, should be able to preserve all that stuff with no waste. Most of my canned goods are home-canned preserved chili relishes, salsas, pickles, etc.

 

[Evo]

He asked a question. What would constitute "more" effort on his part wrt asking the question that he asked? And why does he "need" to "put more effort into (his) posts from now on"? Is that part of the PF Guidelines? And exactly how would you determine that one has put "enough effort" into their posts?

EDIT: Oh yeah, he asked us to elaborate/discuss the reasons for our choices. (Seems like a fairly good effort to me.) Anyway, I chose some unrest, standard of living will degrade, greater class separation ... because I think there will be some unrest, beyond the OWS demos, and because it seems inevitable to me that the standard of living for the majority of US workers will decrease, while the incomes of the richest 5% of Americans will continue to increase.

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[skippy1729]

I don't like where I think this might be going.

I don't either. I would much prefer being wrong and prepared than right and unprepared.

Skippy

 

[lisab]

Come to think of it, that doesn't sound like a bad idea. Note to self: more canned goods and ammo. Wait a minute ... I don't own any guns. Note to self: buy some guns, then lots of ammo.

So what you do is, buy lots of canned goods. Then find a way to turn the cans into ammo. There now - you're set for the end of the world!

 

[edward]

Apparently a lot of people are thinking about the food supply bit.

http://www.samsclub.com/sams/shop/product.jsp?productId=prod1620354

In 09 year there was an ammunition shortgage due to hoarding. I went to a Sportsmans Warehouse and the ammo shelves were empty. I found the same situation at Walmart.

 

[AlephZero]

Food might not be the only problem. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16037798

 

[Astronuc]

Census shows [nearly] 1 in 2 people are poor or low-income
http://news.yahoo.com/census-shows-1-2-people-poor-low-income-054325860.html

. . .
Many middle-class Americans are dropping below the low-income threshold — roughly $45,000 for a family of four — because of pay cuts, a forced reduction of work hours or a spouse losing a job. Housing and child-care costs are consuming up to half of a family's income.
. . .
About 97.3 million Americans fall into a low-income category, commonly defined as those earning between 100 and 199 percent of the poverty level, based on a new supplemental measure by the Census Bureau that is designed to provide a fuller picture of poverty. Together with the 49.1 million who fall below the poverty line and are counted as poor, they number 146.4 million, or 48 percent of the U.S. population. That's up by 4 million from 2009, the earliest numbers for the newly developed poverty measure.
. . . .

 

[lisab]

Apparently a lot of people are thinking about the food supply bit.

http://www.samsclub.com/sams/shop/product.jsp?productId=prod1620354

In 09 year there was an ammunition shortgage due to hoarding. I went to a Sportsmans Warehouse and the ammo shelves were empty. I found the same situation at Walmart.

Reminds me of Y2K. On Jan.1 2000, a woman I know in Texas didn't quite know what to do with the bushel of corn she had stashed under her bed.

 

[DrClapeyron]

Rising oil demand from Asia lead to a world-wide oil price increase from 2003-2008. I am likely to believe that as long as the price of oil does not again quintuple in the next five years you will not need guns and ammo to solve the U.S. economic problems.

The U.S. stock markets were directly affected by the rising price of oil and its subsequent drop. I am amazed to look back at the compensation oil executives and executives were receiving in other industries, prior to the 2008 drop, due merely to the rise in the price of oil. It sounds picky but it is true.

The economic future of this country is that the short-term inflation caused by oil will be followed by a long-term recovery in income for the average American to offset the short-term inflation. How this happens is not easy to explain.

 

[gregxy]

I would choose "stagnation through inflation" or "some unrest"

I think guns and gold can be eliminates since it is a "no win" situation
and the people in power would have too much at risk.

Deflation seems unlikely since there is so much debt and inflation reduces debt.

The US economy does seem to be improving. But here are two interesting articles
indicating problems.

The market moves in waves driven by scientific progress:
http://scienceprogress.org/2011/05/waves-of-innovation-2/
I can't see a next wave on the horizon.

Many retail investors are pulling money from the market and are unlikely to return:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45402485/

In addition the aging populations in the US, China and Japan look like a problem.

 

[ThomasT]

So what you do is, buy lots of canned goods. Then find a way to turn the cans into ammo. There now - you're set for the end of the world!

Not so fast! First, if I'm going to use the cans as projectiles, then I'll need to build (and maintain) a can delivery device. And if I'm going to use the cans as projectiles, then they must be full, which introduces the dreaded 'dinner or defense' dilemma. Then I have to retrieve them, and so on -- just lots of headaches.

Ok, so suppose I eat the stuff in the cans first, then fill the cans with explosives. But those are expensive, and I would probably blow myself up before having to use them against the marauding zombie hordes anyway.

And yes, the attackers will be zombies. I think that much is agreed upon. And it's well known that in order to kill (finally ... for good) zombies, then it's necessary to decapitate them -- which I don't think I can do by hurling canned goods at them.

The only option seems to be gigantic ninja throwing stars, which I can fashion from empty tin cans with a forge and the proper tools. Of course I'll need to take lessons for that, but that shouldn't be a problem in South Florida.

The only thing left to do will be to get about a million dollars to build a state of the art bunker, forge, and food storage ... thing. Thanks lisab, you've been an immense help.

EDIT: Was that off topic? If so, then I apologize to the gregxy. But I don't think it's entirely my fault. gregxy, you just need to put more effort into your posts.

 

[SunnyBoyNY]

The economy will get better as the finances will follow the real world more closely due to massive lay-offs and new regulations. Then, in a few years, things will go south again because of an additional bubble - the Pell grants (school loans).

Regardless of your political affiliations, isn't it clear that many political decisions (cheap mortgages, affordable school loans, wars) are simply profitable for certain entities in the US?

In any regards, I am glad that the living standard goes lower. Think about it- even the poorest people have access to a multitude of amenities. Immigration and cheaper labor will make the United States a clear world leader again. China is overheating and things might be very bad for both the East and the West but since the US imports stuff that was originally produced here, the US won't hurt that much. In the end, the US is less dependent on China than China on the US.