Life in Universe, statistical point of view

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the probability of life existing elsewhere in the universe, considering both basic and intelligent life forms. Participants explore statistical perspectives, theoretical frameworks like the Drake equation, and the implications of current scientific endeavors in the search for extraterrestrial life.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • One participant suggests that given the vast number of stars and planets, it seems more surprising not to find life than to find it, questioning if this aligns with general scientific consensus.
  • Another participant references the Drake equation as a tool that can yield vastly different conclusions about the existence of life based on varying parameters.
  • A different view emphasizes the difficulty of finding advanced life capable of communication, suggesting that while simple life may exist, advanced life is a significant achievement yet to be realized.
  • Some participants express a belief that many experts assume some form of life exists in the universe, supported by substantial investments in the search for extraterrestrial life.
  • One participant notes that public sentiment may lean towards the idea that humans are special, leading to skepticism about the existence of other life forms.
  • Another participant points out the abundance of common elements in living organisms and their prevalence in the universe, suggesting this supports the idea of life existing elsewhere.
  • One participant maintains an open-minded stance, indicating that the scientific community should remain receptive to evidence, regardless of personal beliefs about the existence of life beyond Earth.
  • A participant calculates the odds of life existing only on Earth, framing it as a statistical improbability given the vast number of stars.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views, with some suggesting a general belief in the existence of life elsewhere, while others emphasize the uncertainty and variability of the evidence. No consensus is reached regarding the probability or nature of extraterrestrial life.

Contextual Notes

Discussions involve assumptions about the parameters of the Drake equation and the unknown variables affecting the probability of life, which remain unresolved.

frankdrouin
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Hi,

I was having a discussion with a friend about the probability of life in the universe outside of earth.

From what i know, there are 70 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 stars and god knows how many planets. Given the low probability of life spawning on a single planet but the huge amounts of planets that add up my opinion is that not the biggest surprise in the universe would be not to find life.

By life we can think of basic life and intelligent life. Is it the generally accepted theory in accordance with my point of view or am i missing an important fact somewhere along the road?
 
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A nice example here is the Drake equation. It shows how a simple argument can be used to support both claims (we are alone, and there are many other planets with life). In the link I gave you, you will find two reasonable sounding sets of parameters leading to completely different results, at the very bottom of the "Historical estimates of the parameters" section.
 
CompuChip said:
A nice example here is the Drake equation. It shows how a simple argument can be used to support both claims (we are alone, and there are many other planets with life). In the link I gave you, you will find two reasonable sounding sets of parameters leading to completely different results, at the very bottom of the "Historical estimates of the parameters" section.

Tank you very much. The drake equation seems to be focusing on the chances that we find an advanced enough form of life that is able to communicate.

I think it is the most difficult and for sure the greatest achivement that could happen in mankind history.

But beyond that, my view was that is it safe to assume that some kind of life, from simple forms to highly advanced forms, exist in the universe. Is that a view shared by most experts on that question?
 
frankdrouin said:
But beyond that, my view was that is it safe to assume that some kind of life, from simple forms to highly advanced forms, exist in the universe. Is that a view shared by most experts on that question?

We spend many billions of dollars to find life elsewhere than Earth, so I think it is safe to assume that is the presumption "shared by most experts"...that it is out there and we expect to find it eventually.
 
most people would like to think they are very special in the universe, so they would say NO

we certainly are not the first in creation, so why would there not be others?
 
Though this is slightly off-topic I find it interesting that the four most commonly used elements found in living things are also four of the most common reactive elements in the Universe.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHON"

So I think there is definitely life out there too.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think that i sthe veiw "shared by most experts", but I think (and hope) that most of the scientific community is keeping an open mind and willing to except what the evidence says, rather than looking for the result they want. I myself am completely open on this one; I could believe the results either way.

Many of the variables involved (the variables in the Drake Equation) are completely unknown. As far as I'm concerned the issue is 50/50; the answer is either "yes" or "no."
 
frankdrouin said:
...From what i know, there are 70 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 stars and god knows how many planets...QUOTE]

Another way to look at it. If there is only life here, the odds are 1/70 000 000 000 000 000 000 000.
 

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