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atyy said:
In contrast, with ordinary probability, we don't have to be optimists about it, we can quantify it using probability, eg. using a Frequentist p value or a Bayesian posterior.
I disagree. For probability theory to be HELPFUL, in the sense of providing useful tips on how to bet on future occurrences (I'm using "bet" in a loose sense here--if I take a plane, I'm betting my life that it won't crash), the future relative frequencies should be roughly what is predicted by my probability theory. If that isn't the case, then I've wasted my time computing probabilities. But whether the future turns out the way probabilities predict is luck. They may not.
I think a major question is whether such optimism is rational. In Deutsch-Wallace MWI, the unique rational assignment of weights is according to the Born rule of the true amplitudes.
If a counting assignment of weights is rational, then it would seem that the Deutsch-Wallace assignment is not unique, contrary to their claim.
I'm only claiming that a counting assignment of weights is AN approach to dealing with nondeterminism. If all you have to go on is a set of possibilities, and you have no basis for distinguishing the different possibilities, then a counting weight is as good as anything. It's sort of a "minimalist" assumption.
The case of quantum mechanics is a little more complicated, because we do have other information that simply the number of possible outcomes. We have the amplitudes, as well. Various people have argued that if we assume that a weight is derivable from amplitudes, then something like the Born rule is the only possibility consistent with certain other criteria for reasonableness.
Basically, we decide that a particular way of assigning weights is best because the other alternatives have unmotivated, ad-hoc elements that we find objectionable. There's the same sort of thing going on in statistical mechanics. We compute such things as entropy by making the assumption (or maybe definition) that for a thermally isolated system in equilibrium, all states with the same energy are equally likely. We don't really know that that's the case, but we have no basis for assuming anything different.
But that doesn't address how we could come to know the weights in the first place - how we could come to their definition of a rational behaviour?
I don't think that that's mysterious, at all. We perform the same experiment a bunch of times, and compute relative frequencies. Then we assume that they reflect some kind of probability, and we develop a theory to allow us to calculate it. If the relative frequencies hadn't turned out that way, we would have discarded the theory.
How could you know whether you are in a good world or bad world, in at least a probabilistic sense?
I think it's just an assumption. If we don't assume that future relative frequencies can be calculated, then we can't make predictions about the future. We can't do science. We can't do technology. We can't do medicine. So we assume that we live in a nice, predictable world, because we have no other way to reason about it. If our assumption is wrong, then we're screwed. But as I said, we might as well be optimists about it.