Metaphysical probability statements

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the concept of probability in relation to metaphysical statements, particularly regarding the existence of entities such as God. Participants explore the implications of assigning probabilities to statements that are either true or false, questioning the meaningfulness of such probabilities from a realist perspective.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants question how it is meaningful to assign a probability to a metaphysical statement if the statement is either true or false.
  • One participant suggests two contexts where probability makes sense: error of measurement and quantum indeterminacy, noting that sharper measurements could lead to definitive probabilities of 0 or 1.
  • Another participant expresses familiarity with the error of measurement but struggles to understand how probability applies to statements with definite answers.
  • A participant argues that 'probability' indicates uncertainty despite all variables being considered, suggesting that it may not necessarily imply a true probability but rather an unknown fixed outcome.
  • One participant asserts that metaphysical statements lack a basis for belief, leading to skepticism about the applicability of probability statements to them.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the applicability and meaningfulness of probability in the context of metaphysical statements. No consensus is reached regarding the validity of assigning probabilities to such statements.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight limitations in understanding how probability relates to metaphysical claims, particularly regarding the nature of truth and measurement in this context.

disregardthat
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I have seen often that statements that refer to a probability of some particular metaphysical thing's existence, e.g. god, is characterized as a good and meaningful statement. I can accept this, but I have also seen this in the context of realism - which for me makes little sense.

My question is: how is it meaningful in a realist perspective to postulate a probability of some statement (for example regarding some thing's existence) if the statement is either true or false?
 
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I believe I raised this issue before here.

There are two ways I see probability making any sense. A: error of measurement. Which means the probability magically changes if you take sharper measurements until it becomes 0 or 1. B: Quantum indeterminacy.
 
Kajahtava said:
I believe I raised this issue before here.

There are two ways I see probability making any sense. A: error of measurement. Which means the probability magically changes if you take sharper measurements until it becomes 0 or 1. B: Quantum indeterminacy.

A is a context which I am familiar with, and I have no trouble accepting any such statement of probability. I am not familiar with B, but I guess it is in the context of the wave-function. That is, a model of the probability of a certain outcome in the future. B is relatively equivalent to A, at least in this case. However, when it comes to statements which have definite answers, I can not see how probability can apply.
 
Well, 'probability', it just means that even with all the variables, we still cannot know what happens.

It just means that not all variables are dependent on others, but just seem to come into play on their own.

I wouldn't per se say it means a 'probability', it can also mean that it's a fixed outcome, but that there's just no way of knowing in advance? Which then is a measurement idea again.
 
Kajahtava said:
Well, 'probability', it just means that even with all the variables, we still cannot know what happens.

It just means that not all variables are dependent on others, but just seem to come into play on their own.

I wouldn't per se say it means a 'probability', it can also mean that it's a fixed outcome, but that there's just no way of knowing in advance? Which then is a measurement idea again.

If so, there must be some basis for belief that some statement is true or not. Metaphysical statements have no such basis, so I do not see how a probability statement about them can make sense. Your definition of probability does not seem to apply to metaphysical statements.
 

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