Meteorite crash recorded on video in Canada

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    Crash Meteorite Video
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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around a video recording of a meteorite crash in Canada, specifically on Prince Edward Island. Participants explore the implications of such events, the rarity of meteorite strikes, and the statistical odds of individuals being struck by meteorites. The conversation touches on historical examples of meteorite impacts and the challenges associated with meteorite collection.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Historical

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants question the probability of a meteorite landing on Earth and being recorded, highlighting the odds of such events.
  • Historical examples of meteorite strikes, including incidents in 1954 and 1992, are provided to illustrate the rarity and impact of these occurrences.
  • Estimates of the odds of an individual being struck by a meteorite range from 1 in 700,000 to 1 in several million, with some participants expressing skepticism about these figures.
  • Concerns are raised regarding the interpretation of statistics, particularly the implications of a high estimate suggesting many individuals would have experienced a meteorite strike.
  • Participants discuss the challenges of meteorite collection in Canada, noting bureaucratic hurdles and the potential increase in value for meteorites that have been recorded on video.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the statistical estimates of meteorite strikes and their implications. There is no consensus on the accuracy of the odds presented, and the discussion remains unresolved regarding the interpretation of these statistics.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight the dependence on definitions and the assumptions behind statistical estimates. The discussion also reflects on the rarity of meteorite impacts and the challenges faced in meteorite collection, which may not be universally applicable.

jtbell
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...near someone's front door on Prince Edward Island.

 
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This video is in contrast to the Toyota Tacoma truck advertisement of a fake meteorite strike:

 
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Interesting video until the final sequence when the interviewer asks, "what are the odds?". Odds, or probability, of what event? A meteor landing on Earth from the asteroid belts? This event being recorded by a security camera then recognized as such?
 
Examples

What are the odds?
  • Some researchers have estimated that the odds of any individual being struck by a meteorite in their lifetime are 1 in 700,000 to 1 in several million.
  • NASA has cited numbers in a similar ballpark, often around 1 in 1.6 million for a human lifetime.
Why So Rare?
  • Although the Earth is constantly bombarded by tiny bits of space debris, most burn up in the atmosphere as meteors (the “shooting stars” you see).
  • The number of meteorites that make it to Earth’s surface and are large enough to cause injury is extremely small.
  • Earth’s surface is approximately 70% water, and vast areas are uninhabited, so the chance of a meteorite landing in a populated area—let alone striking a person—is minuscule.
 
jedishrfu said:
Some researchers have estimated that the odds of any individual being struck by a meteorite in their lifetime are 1 in 700,000 to 1 in several million.
1 in 700,000 seems way high, as it suggests that about 10,000 of the 7 billion people now on earth will have experienced a meteorite strike at some point in their lives; more than one hundred such events per year worldwide. Or am I misunderstanding the statistic?
 
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Nugatory said:
1 in 700,000 seems way high, as it suggests that about 10,000 of the 7 billion people now on earth will have experienced a meteorite strike at some point in their lives;
The estimate does seem a bit too high.

Half of the victims will no longer be living on the Earth, so will be missing from the statistics. The other half of the living victims, will not yet have been victimised. That may be why there appear to be very few victims on Earth today.
 
Nugatory said:
1 in 700,000 seems way high, as it suggests that about 10,000 of the 7 billion people now on earth will have experienced a meteorite strike at some point in their lives; more than one hundred such events per year worldwide. Or am I misunderstanding the statistic?
Agreed. With only one known human hit by a meteorite in the past 70 years, that would suggest odds below 1:8 billion. Current population is 8 billion.

Baluncore said:
Half of the victims will no longer be living on the Earth, so will be missing from the statistics. The other half of the living victims, will not yet have been victimised. That may be why there appear to be very few victims on Earth today.
"Very few victims"? Assuming that one known victim is now dead (she'd be 104 years old), there would be no living victims.
 
Baluncore said:
The other half of the living victims, will not yet have been victimised
It will take on the order of 100 per year on average just to get enough hits in before the people currently alive but not hit have died before they're hit.
 
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I can see @davenn booking a trip to PEI.
 
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Astronuc said:
I can see @davenn booking a trip to PEI.
It hurt my ears! Should have a volume warning
 
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jtbell said:
...near someone's front door on Prince Edward Island.



That is so very cool 😍

thankyou for the link

That right there is the definition of a hammerstone. One that hits something manmade. ( building, road etc). That quickly bumps up the sale price substantially and then to add more value, it was video'ed to hit. Even more $$$$.
There's only one hassle, trying to get Canadian meteorites out if Canada is like trying to get the proverbial "blood out of a stone". It is done, but the paperwork etc is not fun, so my 2 fellow Canadian meteorite collectors tell me, after have gone through the process.

Dave
 
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