MIT researchers forecast global economic collapse by 2030

[Greg Bernhardt]

MIT researchers forecast "global economic collapse" by 2030

A new study from researchers at Jay W. Forrester's institute at MIT says that the world could suffer from "global economic collapse" and "precipitous population decline" if people continue to consume the world's resources at the current pace.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sidesho...rchers-predict-global-economic-190352944.htmlAnything we don't already know? Can anyone find the actual study?

 

[Evo]

The only study I can find is the one from 1972.

 

[Astronuc]

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sidesho...rchers-predict-global-economic-190352944.html

Anything we don't already know? Can anyone find the actual study?

A lot of folks are citing the Yahoo article.

There is no press release or report on the MIT Sloan site. I'll wait to read the report. It would help to know the authors or the title.
http://mitsloan.mit.edu/newsroom/press-releases.php

I did find:

Twelve million copies of the recently published report were distributed in thirty-seven different languages around the world. While there are those, such as former governor of the Federal Research Board and Yale economist Henry Wallich, who strongly disagree with the findings of detailed in both the Limits to Growth as well as the more recent MIT study conveying similar findings. Wallich believed that the regulation of economic growth would be equivalent to “consigning billions to permanent poverty.”

http://www.inquisitr.com/215867/glo...searchers-predict-next-great-depression-2030/

Beside the Limits of Growth report in 1972, there was apparently an update in 2002, and it appears the MIT study may be a 40 year update.

http://www.clubofrome.at/archive/limits.html
Synopsis of Limits to Growth - The 30 Year Update
http://www.clubofrome.at/archive/pdf/limits.pdf

 

[Evo]

Yeah, that's the same stuff I found, nothing recent. Odd.

 

[Useful nucleus]

They edited the yahoo article and added:

Correction: This post has been edited to reflect that MIT has not updated its research from the original 1972 study.

 

[Evo]

They edited the yahoo article and added:

Correction: This post has been edited to reflect that MIT has not updated its research from the original 1972 study.

BUWAHAHA! What idiot made that mistake?

 

[russ_watters]

If the graph in the Smithsonian link are what Turner put together and bases his conclusion that the 1972 study is on track, it looks to me like he couldn't be much wronger on most:

Non-renewable resources: Original prediction shows a steeply accelerating drop and the actual curve barely deviates from linear.

Food per capita: Prediction was that it is leveling off and instead it is increasing sharply and roughly linearly.

Services per capita: Not sure what that one means, but it is actually fairly close to the prediction -- but the curve isn't smooth.

Population: Close to the prediction.

Industrial output: Not smooth, but slightly below prediction.

Pollution output: Curves overlap at the start of the prediction, but toward the end the prediction increases sharply while the actual output does not. Looks like the prediction is exponential pollution growth while the actual is a linear to slight flattening of growth.

See, the problem with comparing exponential curves and linear ones over short timeframes is they can appear to overlap for a while when in actuality the deviation is constantly increasing.

 

[Astronuc]

They edited the yahoo article and added:

Correction: This post has been edited to reflect that MIT has not updated its research from the original 1972 study.

Well - they changed the story.

They also removed the reference to the Forrester Institute.

 

[Evo]

I wonder if that Yahoo "reporter" is in hiding now?

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Wow, I'm going to do the right thing here and lock my own thread lol :D