Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

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The discussion centers on the complexities and potential consequences of the ongoing tensions in Ukraine, drawing parallels to historical conflicts. Participants express concerns about the motivations behind Putin's actions, suggesting he aims to expand Russian influence and possibly recreate aspects of the Soviet Union. The effectiveness of Western sanctions is debated, with skepticism about their impact on halting Russian aggression. There are fears that if the West does not respond decisively, the situation could escalate beyond Ukraine, potentially affecting other regions like Taiwan. Overall, the conversation highlights the precarious nature of international relations and the risks of underestimating authoritarian ambitions.
  • #751
PeroK said:
To misquote James Joyce: history is a nightmare from which we should all try to awaken.
You can well take the present to observe how a democratically elected president / prime minister / whatever turns into a dictator. Several persons in Europe and nearby are not quite there yet, but they do their best to get there.
 
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  • #752
PeroK said:
He wasn't appointed by a foreign power or by a military coup.The Russian people voted him in and stood back when political opponents were pushed out. They've done almost nothing to stop the rise of a dictator to a position of absolute power.
Most of the populace grew up under the Soviet system. There was a small window of opportunity ca. early 1990s, but the hardliners (nationalists) took control over the decade.
 
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  • #753
Astronuc said:
Most of the populace grew up under the Soviet system.
And it wasn't any better before.
 
  • #754
Astronuc said:
Most of the populace grew up under the Soviet system.
You might have thought that would have given them a belly full of dictatorship and made them less likely to succumb than those who couldn't imagine the horrors.
 
  • #755
fresh_42 said:
And it wasn't any better before.
No, of course not, but that is with what the people were familiar. That's what they knew.
 
  • #756
Well , even though @PeroK seems to dislike me for something which any intellectual person should have never got emotional about, here I have to partly agree with Perok.
If we look back at history at the beginning of the industrial revolution the conditions for workers were awful in all parts of the world. Capitalism back then was without "checks and balances" as we have them now, definitely not on that level.
The ideology of Karl Marx and Engels was popular at the time but it never reached the level of popularity where it could actually "spark" an assisted overthrow of government in any other place than Russia.

I think it is not just a coincidence that it was Russia where Communism began and ended. Yes the poor conditions of peasants and farmers under Czar contributed but also the mentality contributed. Different nations have different mentality. People in the east differ from those in the west not just by their language.
China is another example.

This does not mean that I label all people the same, I do not. But I have to agree from a first person experience with Russians that they tend to be more aggressive on average than a Brit or an American would be. This is my personal experience so no need to criticize it. That being said Russians are some of the best people I know, they are very helpful and such but they do have that "might makes right " type of emotional attitude towards stuff, that I cannot deny.
 
  • #757
Astronuc said:
No, of course not, but that is what the people had familiarity. That's what they knew.
One of the facts why returning to democracy in Germany worked after WW II is, that we had it before and democratic movements since the 19th century. It wasn't a start from scratch and wasn't for 80 years. Some ignore this too often in my opinion and then are surprised that the model does not work elsewhere, e.g. in the middle and not so middle east.
 
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  • #758
Anyway, this old Russian communist was praying to a bust of Stalin, begging him to return and save Russia once more. He prayed and prayed until one day, to his amazement, the bust spoke in the distinctive voice of uncle Joe.

All right, it said, I'll come back and save Russia. But, this time it will be no more Mr nice guy.
 
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  • #759
fresh_42 said:
One of the facts why returning to democracy in Germany worked after WW II is, that we had it before and democratic movements since the 19th century. It wasn't a start from scratch and wasn't for 80 years. Some ignore this too often in my opinion and then are surprised that the model does not work elsewhere, e.g. in the middle and not so middle east.
Exactly , on point. Russia has never had a democracy, those few years in the 90's doesn't count, it was more of a wild west, oligarchs grab all type of moment, while Yeltsin was busy getting drunk. (You can check youtube, he was drunk on visits often even)

This is the same reason the US spent billions (trillions? ) in Afghanistan and it all essentially is flushed down the toilet now. The taliban just ran that country over like a freight train.
I'm not saying there aren't people in the middle east or Afghanistan that don't want freedom I'm just saying that apparently their not in the majority. History and tradition is a powerful thing not to be erased that easily. Religion is too. Truth be told my opinion is that their religion is part of the problem but that is a whole different topic that this forums couldn't handle one bit, given how emotional some here get even so far.
 
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  • #760
fresh_42 said:
One of the facts why returning to democracy in Germany worked after WW II is, that we had it before and democratic movements since the 19th century. It wasn't a start from scratch and wasn't for 80 years. Some ignore this too often in my opinion and then are surprised that the model does not work elsewhere, e.g. in the middle and not so middle east.
At the risk of taking this thread further on a tangent, this is an extraordinarily simplistic analysis. It seems clear that human societies in all their forms are complex dynamical systems.

It's impossible, IMO, to boil down the success of democracy like this.
 
  • #761
PeroK said:
It's impossible, IMO, to boil down the success of democracy like this.
Surprisingly, I agree. However, it is equally too simplistic to ignore the effects of populism on societies. I'm sure the Russians dreamt of and had been promised a Western life in 1991. What they got instead was another system creeping silently into another oppression, which only recently revealed its full consequences. E.g. DW, BBC, and FB have been forbidden not earlier than these days.
 
  • #763
Transnistria already followed Donbas and Luhansk. There are Russian troops already in. At least they have a river as a new border. And it is easier. The whole country splits into two parts anyway: one part is Russian, the other part is Romanian.
 
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  • #765
This has done a good job of splitting the world between "haves" and "have nots". The former are the countries with sanctions. Is this a coincidence, or someone's plan?
 
  • #766
Keith_McClary said:
This has done a good job of splitting the world between "haves" and "have nots". The former are the countries with sanctions. Is this a coincidence, or someone's plan?
Where do China and India, with 40% of the world population between them, fit into that model? Is China a "have" or "have not"?
 
  • #767
PeroK said:
Where do China and India, with 40% of the world population between them, fit into that model? Is China a "have" or "have not"?
In 2011 China was in the bottom half:
imfchart.png

Reminds me of:
Russophrenia - a condition where the sufferer believes Russia is both about to collapse, and take over the world.
Bryan MacDonald
 
  • #768
Keith_McClary said:
In 2011 China was in the bottom half:
View attachment 297888
I guess that makes China a "have not"?
 
  • #769
As of now, 3% of the entire Ukrainian population has already left the country, and no end is in sight. I have never seen so many little children on one spot as in the news these days. The children's hospital in Kyiv that is currently operating in the basement has sent many to Germany, but many cannot be transported. They die under the hands of the surgeons and nurses. Also, orphans and handicapped children arrived here.

It is these pictures that make me angry. One bullet, we only need one bullet.
 
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  • #770
fresh_42 said:
As of now, 3% of the entire Ukrainian population has already left the country, and no end is in sight.
Wow. That's a lot.
 
  • #771
DennisN said:
I feel pretty much the same way. Personally, I'm sad, uncertain and actually quite angry, to be honest.
But I hope for the best.

Also, I'm thinking that taking some kind of action could help with the feelings, maybe make some donation or something, perhaps.

atyy said:
In Singapore, the Ukrainian embassy suggested a donation to the Red Cross.

I've made a donation to the Red Cross which will go to humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. I may make more, and I also saw that they have a service where you can donate an amount monthly (at least on the page for the Swedish branch of the Red Cross).
 
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  • #772
Russia issues jail warning over spreading 'fake' war information

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a bill introducing a prison sentence of up to 15 years for spreading information that goes against the Russian government’s position on the war in Ukraine.

The bill criminalising the intentional spreading of what Russia deems to be “fake” reports about the war was quickly rubber-stamped by both houses of the Kremlin-controlled parliament earlier Friday (NZT Saturday).

Russian authorities have repeatedly decried reports of Russian military setbacks or civilian deaths in Ukraine as “fake” reports. State media outlets refer to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rather than a “war” or “invasion.”

The law envisages sentences of up to three years or fines for spreading what authorities deem to be false news about the military, but the maximum punishment rises to 15 years for cases deemed to have led to “severe consequences.”
-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...-law-to-jail-russians-for-fake-reports-on-war
 
  • #773
StevieTNZ said:
Additionally, the draft law criminalizes the dissemination of “fake news.” Journalists deemed to be deliberately spreading disinformation would face a minimum fine of 4.7 million UAH ($195,000) and would acquire a criminal record. Those deemed to be repeatedly spreading “fake news” could be imprisoned for up to five years.
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-p...ng-disinformation-or-targeting-freedom-speech
 
  • #774
A German reporter in Moscow said 15years, yesterday.
 
  • #775
Star Trek - The Undiscovered Country said:
General Chang: "To be or not to be?" That is the question which preoccupies our people, Captain Kirk. We need breathing room.
Captain James T. Kirk: Earth, Hitler, 1938.
 
  • #776
fresh_42 said:
Nope. It started the other way round.
Was joke. Note lack of articles.
 
  • #777
There is a second migration going on. Finnland reports an increase of Russian tourists who - considering their luggage - are planning to stay.
 
  • #779
artis said:
a wild west, oligarchs grab all type of moment
And foreign "investors" like Bill Browder.
 
  • #780
fresh_42 said:
There is a second migration going on. Finnland reports an increase of Russian tourists who - considering their luggage - are planning to stay.
This is actually a problem, here in the Baltic republics we already have a historically high Russian population and if more come, well we cannot be sure that sometime in the future they don't change their mind and become Kremlin expansionist policy advocates. The population that is already here is somewhat split between those that love the local culture and condemn Russian aggression and those that when the first news of war came cheered on.

"A house divided against itself cannot stand" applies equally irrespective of where in the world that is.
 
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  • #781
artis said:
"A house divided against itself cannot stand" applies equally irrespective of where in the world that is.
Mr Putin's logic seems to be burn down half the house and hope the other will still stand!
 
  • #782
neilparker62 said:
Mr Putin's logic seems to be burn down half the house and hope the other will still stand!
I think Putin is a gambler. Gamblers sometimes take risks even in the face of clear danger to themselves. By no means there is a clear victory for him in Ukraine and the economic consequences are already severe.

I read on twitter that Russians have disabled Facebook and other western internet sites in Russian territory, it is now like in China or North Korea. Only difference between Russia and N.Korea is Russia has lots more resources and leverage.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...pletely-blocks-access-to-facebook-and-twitter

The one problem I see with the whole Ukraine deal, besides Zelensky seemingly getting more tired and weaker by the day, is that if let's say Russia take Ukraine and fully annexes it into Russia, what happens some years in the future? Does this stop or does Putin or whoever in the future builds up their military even more and then decides to show off with NATO...

For me right now the only safety guarantee in my mind is that Russians are bogged down in Ukraine and spending lots of energy there so they won't try to go further but what happens 10 years from now is a question.
 
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  • #783
I read in local news that Russians (well those that still think straight and follow all news not just local) are trying to escape Russia as they fear Russia will turn into what it once was - a totalitarian state where all freedom and ability to escape will be lost.
The train to Finland from StPetersburg is crowded , Russians are going away to Finland, Baltics, even Turkey.
Probably this won't happen for long as Kremlin is rumored to crack down and introduce martial law in Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ion-some-russians-try-flee-abroad-2022-03-03/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ee-homeland-Citizens-pack-trains-Finland.html

https://yle.fi/news/3-12343658

Some more website blocking
https://www.axios.com/russia-exodus-putin-ukraine-invasion-9b5694d6-2394-40a5-a629-9551fc74fb39.html
 
  • #785
Oldman too said:
I personally, already block axios, but that's a matter personal choice.
Well Facebook is also know to be a sweet spot of all kinds of misinformation but still I believe in a democracy you have to let all opinions be expressed as part of a free society. Clamping down and closing down everything from axios to Facebook is a sign of attack on freedom of speech I think.

 
  • #787
Just watched some videos that I had seen before and forgotten,
Covid disrupted my plans to visit Ukraine , I had some places in mind, one of them is this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_missile_forces_museum_in_Ukraine

Here is a Russian language vlog, with English subtitles available ,about some guys visiting the actual leftover missile silo for the RT-23 ICBM complex.
Ukraine truly had a huge nuclear potential back in the 90's, it had a considerable fraction of the USSR nuclear arsenal on it's land, among that they also had factories and design bureau that produced some of the missiles and their auxiliary equipment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuzhmash

Missiles produced at Pivdenmash included the first nuclear armed Soviet rocket R-5M (SS-3 'Shyster'), the R-12 Dvina (SS-4 'Sandal'), the R-14 Chusovaya (SS-5 'Skean'), the first widely deployed Soviet ICBM R-16 (SS-7 'Saddler'), the R-36 (SS-9 'Scarp'), the MR-UR-100 Sotka (SS-17 'Spanker'), and the R-36M (SS-18 'Satan'). During the Soviet era, the plant was capable of producing of up to 120 ICBMs a year. In the late 1980s, Pivdenmash was selected to be the main production facility of the RT-2PM2 Topol-M ICBM (SS-27 "Sickle B").

The most feared was "Satan" as it had a quick launch and was kept ready with it's gyroscopes spinning at all times to quicken the start. Had MIRV capability with up to 10 warheads within a single missile and 16 000km range A force to be reckoned with anywhere on the world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-36_(missile)
https://nuke.fas.org/guide/russia/icbm/r-36m.htmLooking back now seems like if they had kept at least a part of their arsenal and upgraded it to the latest missiles they themselves produced it could have been a strong deterrent against Russia, but the expert opinions I read vary from ones saying disarming was good either way to ones saying the opposite.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_UkraineHere is a good excerpt from BBC questions

I think Konstantin is right.
 
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  • #788
fresh_42 said:
There is a second migration going on. Finnland reports an increase of Russian tourists who - considering their luggage - are planning to stay.
I've read about it in Swedish newspapers.

Here's an article in English published today, from the BBC, with short interviews with the people leaving Russia:

War in Ukraine: The Russians leaving Russia for Finland (BBC, 5 Mars 2022)​

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60624500

Two quotes:

BBC Article said:
Some people are anxious to get out of Russia because there has been a persistent rumour that President Vladimir Putin's government might soon introduce martial law to deal with demonstrations against the invasion of Ukraine.

BBC Article said:
With flights to Europe halted, the only way out of the country is by car - crossing this border - or by train.
We spoke to one young Russian woman who was leaving for the West - one of the lucky ones who had an EU visa before the sanctions were announced. She was in despair at what has been happening.
"People in Ukraine are our people - our family," she said. "We shouldn't be killing them." Would she think of going back, I asked? "Not while our dreadful government is there. It is so, so sad."
She said most Russians don't want this war, but they risk going to jail if they try to stand up to Putin.
 
  • #789
artis said:
I think Putin is a gambler. Gamblers sometimes take risks even in the face of clear danger to themselves. By no means there is a clear victory for him in Ukraine and the economic consequences are already severe.
On the whole , I think we could probably do without this particular form of Russian Roulette!
 
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  • #790
DennisN said:
I've read about it in Swedish newspapers.

Here's an article in English published today, from the BBC, with short interviews with the people leaving Russia:
Let's just hope that Putin doesn't later declare them as disaffected Russian citizens that need 'protecting'.
 
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  • #791
Borg said:
Let's just hope that Putin doesn't later declare them as disaffected Russian citizens that need 'protecting'.
What shall we say? There are currently 263,000 Russians and countless German-Russians (ancestors mainly emigrated under Catherine the Great to occupy thinly populated areas in Russia, and their descendants returned in the last century) in Germany.
 
  • #792
Borg said:
Let's just hope that Putin doesn't later declare them as disaffected Russian citizens that need 'protecting'.
In the soft power spectrum this usage of "protecting Russian diaspora" has been constant since the late 90's , here in Baltics we have had it constantly. We even have Kremlin sponsored political parties and leaders that have tried to "push" certain policies using this "protection" as an issue.

In Ukraine this "protecting" turned physical , here it can't because we managed to get further away (NATO, EU, etc) from Russian influence than most former republics.
 
  • #793
artis said:
In the soft power spectrum this usage of "protecting Russian diaspora" has been constant since the late 90's , here in Baltics we have had it constantly. We even have Kremlin sponsored political parties and leaders that have tried to "push" certain policies using this "protection" as an issue.

In Ukraine this "protecting" turned physical , here it can't because we managed to get further away (NATO, EU, etc) from Russian influence than most former republics.
How ironic that Russians themselves are fleeing to Finland to escape such 'protection' ! The Kremlin hierarchy should perhaps pause to reflect how can it be that they have failed to supply safety and security even for their own population.
 
  • #794
artis said:
"The Russians knew they were journalists, and wanted them dead. "
 
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  • #795
Time to liberate Russia from Putin.
 
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  • #796
Press conference after a football match today:

(Manager) "I didn't even know that a blue whale has an a**h*** that is one meter wide. And this isn't the biggest a**h**** in the world."
 
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  • #797
An atheist, an orthodox Jew, and an orthodox Christian ...

What a menagerie! What comes along like a bad joke is the travel diplomacy that took place today. Bennett on a surprise visit in Moscow, then on a surprise visit in Berlin. I hope we will have a positive surprise tomorrow.
 
  • #798

'They shoot at anyone who tries to leave.' Ukrainians describe terror of living under Russian occupation​

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...of-living-under-russian-occupation/ar-AAUF7su

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine
March 4 (Reuters) - A growing number of Russians and Ukrainians are traveling to Mexico, buying throwaway cars and driving across the border into the United States to seek asylum, a trend that could accelerate as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has forced more than a million people to flee their homes.

U.S. border officials encountered about 6,400 Russians in the four months between October 2021 and January of this year, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data show. That's more than the roughly 4,100 apprehended during the entire 2021 fiscal year, which ended Sept. 30. The jump is similar for Ukrainians, with a little more than 1,000 apprehended since October 2021 through January, compared to about 680 for all of the last fiscal year.
https://www.reuters.com/world/more-russians-ukrainians-seek-asylum-us-mexico-border-2022-03-04/

I don't see many people fleeing to Russia. Why is that?!

Time free Ukraine and liberate Russia from Putin (and the oligarchs)!
 
  • #799
Astronuc said:
Time free Ukraine and liberate Russia from Putin (and the oligarchs)!
I see media noise about going after the oligarchs, but this will make it harder for crooks to steal from Russia and escape with the loot to the West. They will always leave loopholes for our oligarchs entrepreneurs.
 
  • #800
Putin holds scared flight attendants hostage, forces them to sit with him as he threatens world war conflict


Maybe they are wondering why they are there, and whether he is going to ask them to join the air force?
 
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