mathwonk said:
The current discussion of whether Putin is mad or just pretending to be seems a repeat fom 2014-15:
https://www.newsweek.com/2015/04/10/impeccable-logic-behind-putins-madman-strategy-318529.html
Unfortunately I am also reminded of a sentence at the end of chapter XXXI in vol. 3 of Churchill's history of WW2 in regard to Pearl Harbor, something like: "Madness is however an affliction which in war carries with it the advantage of surprise."
And that is the sole reason why Hitler managed to attack the USSR and almost capture Moscow, Stalin was bit reluctant to believe that the other guy could be just as big of a schizo as himself, the famous Soviet spy Richard Zorge told him multiple times that the Japanese won't attack Soviets but instead Germans will and Stalin being Stalin though the "Zorge" is just messing with his mind...
That is the conclusion from known correspondence between spies and the Soviet intelligence at that time
Rive said:
This 'war' is rather strange. As it seems so far, from the 'red army' no air support, minimal logistics, all time low morale, no recon, no patrols, no occupation/territory keeping. Only (!) numbers thrown in.
?
At this rate Ukraine may have some chance.
Well there is one thing some overlook here and it is the fact that you are absolutely right , not only Russia has chosen the most complicated and demanding attack plan of all of them , that is to attack from all sides simultaneously but that Russia so far has done very little and very targeted bombing and mainly relied on troops formed as it seems by teens aka those that barely turn 18 and form the obligatory military service.
Which from a tactical viewpoint is bit weird. I for one think they thought Ukraine will be an easy target so sent their "cheapest" , but now they are seriously reconsidering for sure.
It seems to me Putin is sort of mumbling for now , not sure what is the strategy here, do they do that because they want to preserve as much of Ukraine as possible in order if they capture it that they don't have to rebuild it , I don't know. But I don't believe that someone like Putin and his pantheon of army strategists used the best part of last 8 years to come up with a failed and dumb plan that ridicules them for no benefit and let's Ukraine win.
I do think Ukraine has showed better performance than expected even by Russians so that definitely plays a part, but I don't think Putin will just end this with a "peace agreement" and apologize and go home.
As of now I think he will either "stop playing around" and bomb the holy cow out of Ukraine not caring about demolishing Ukraine to the ground anymore because his persona has been ridiculed by the Ukrainians who are willing to fight tooth to nail.
Or he will negotiate some deal where NATO is never allowed to even look or think about Ukraine ever and he keeps Crimea but promises to leave rest of Ukraine alone or something along those lines, but given Zelensky's stance and Ukrainian fighting this is unlikely. So I think he will either accept loss (yeah right...) or perform a "controlled demolition" on Ukraine.
Pretty much the only thing that could make him reconsider for a more peaceful outcome is his own Russian people and their increased opposition and his rich friends who could in theory poison his own tea for a change because in Russia nobody is immune from an assassination, It's not like he has no enemies at home, it's just that it's extremely hard to get to him since he has the whole Russian state special forces as his personal bodyguards but still someone close to him with a lot of influence could in theory pull some strings.
Just like Stalin was denounced not by outsiders but by his own inner circle, and till this day his death cannot be ruled out as an assassination and a power grab within the Politburo because trust me there was plenty of teeth grinding within that community.
