Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[artis]

Ordinary Russians are shocked by the war. Men fighting in Russia are shocked by the war. They say they expected that the civilians would welcome them - that is, they thought Zelensky government was supported by a narrow and hated minority, and are surprised to find otherwise

Nah it's worse yet, from what I'm reading in Russian dissident twitter accounts the military drills that happened at Ukraine border just before the invasion a week ago, were full of obligatory recruits, all of them young, they were given live ammo, and their phones were confiscated. Then when the drills ended they were simply sent into Ukraine and most were given very little info on why.

Russians knew that Russian lads won't be excited about killing their own kind so they simply lied to them and pushed them, you won't most likely see this on CNN but given the situation and details I have a high confidence this is true. The countless amateur videos from Ukrainian fighters also confirm this

 

[fresh_42]

Can you guys across the pond take in that many people?

Germany has had 890,000 immigrants in 2015 alone, all non-European, which made integration harder.
No problem to have some fellow Europeans more.

 

[DennisN]

By the way, recently I came to think of another interesting part of history which, if I remember correctly, is an example of US pilots (in UN) actually engaging Russian pilots (during the Korean War, one of the hot spots during the Cold War):

"MiG Alley" was the name given by United Nations (UN) pilots during the Korean War to the northwestern portion of North Korea, where the Yalu River empties into the Yellow Sea. It was the site of numerous dogfights between UN fighter pilots and their opponents from North Korea (including some unofficially crewed by Soviet airmen) and the People's Republic of China. Soviet-built Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-15 were the aircraft used during most of the conflict, and the area's nickname was derived from them. It was the site of the first large-scale jet-vs-jet air battles, with the North American F-86 Sabre."

Source: MiG Alley (Wikipedia), see also MiG Alley - Soviet role.

 

[Maelstorm]

Which is one reason why the hate campaign against Russians or wide range of people inside Russia is counterproductive.
Ordinary Russians are shocked by the war. Men fighting in Russia are shocked by the war. They say they expected that the civilians would welcome them - that is, they thought Zelensky government was supported by a narrow and hated minority, and are surprised to find otherwise. Duh - wouldn´t it have been an easy job for Russian intelligence to find realistic estimates of Ukrainian public opinion and inform the soldiers who were going to meet the civilians?

Those reports have been broadcast here in the US as well. There are protests happening in Russia. Some very prominent Russians have been speaking out against it. In fact, yesterday, two Russian oligarchs publicly denounced the war, and rumors are circulating that quite a few more are privately telling Putin to stop it. Our news also reported that Putin's generals advised against this. It has also been reported here several times that the soldiers don't really know why they are there, where they are going, or what they are doing. That might have changed within the last couple of days though. However, the soldiers don't like this either.

I can see a scenario where the military rebels against Putin and we have a coup d'etat on our hands.

After doing some research, I found that it seems that Russia has had the same form of government for the past 400-500 years. Land of the Tsars indeed.

 

[Maelstorm]

Nah it's worse yet, from what I'm reading in Russian dissident twitter accounts the military drills that happened at Ukraine border just before the invasion a week ago, were full of obligatory recruits, all of them young, they were given live ammo, and their phones were confiscated. Then when the drills ended they were simply sent into Ukraine and most were given very little info on why.

Russians knew that Russian lads won't be excited about killing their own kind so they simply lied to them and pushed them, you won't most likely see this on CNN but given the situation and details I have a high confidence this is true. The countless amateur videos from Ukrainian fighters also confirm this

Actually, it has been mentioned once or twice.

 

[fresh_42]

Please avoid discussing American history here. It is not doable. And Stalin-Ribbentrop is very borderline, too.

 

[Maelstorm]

Well I know other Americans that are friends of mine who say the same, so naturally I thought I would write some history here but I was told politely that I'm a fool and wasting my time so sorry I guess I'm going to leave those parts out.

I remember about the cold halting the German advance. But those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it. As it turns out for some people, they repeat it anyways.

 

[fresh_42]

 

[artis]

And Stalin-Ribbentrop is very borderline, too

And Putin's health is also borderline (as you said)... and Ukraine doesn't have a borderline now. So many borderlines I'm confused

 

[fresh_42]

And Putin's health is also borderline (as you said)... and Ukraine doesn't have a borderline now. So many borderlines I'm confused

The crucial point is that many people use comparisons to
a) justify what otherwise cannot be justified
b) distract from the - for them unpleasant - discussion
c) diminish someone's guilt by relativization

None of these rhetorical methods is appropriate.

I am well aware of the Russian citizens in the Baltic States. Again: Justifications for the murderer of children are not welcome.

 

[artis]

@snorkack , Russians , not all of them, are known to have this "hero complex" , those that have it outside of Russia are rather annoying because to them everything revolves around Russian history and the history of republics gets sort of "forgotten" , sadly I can say similar things about some Americans I have met, I think it's a problem for all large nations.

 

[mathwonk]

I am very grateful for all the perspectives given here, especially by people whose families and countrymen lived through history which for me (except for the "Cuban missile crisis") is mostly stories from a book.

 

[Astronuc]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-collapses/ar-AAUraGd

Announcements of aircraft supplied by EU nations appears to be premature. I have to wonder why authorities are making such pronouncements before implementation. Quite possibly, those donating nations don't want to advertise the fact.

Slovakia’s small fleet of MiG-29s are the country’s only fighter jets, and they are being serviced by Russian workers under contract, making their transfer a tough sell in Bratislava.

The Slovakian government is also engaged in talks with Poland to provide protection of Slovak airspace, and until that deal is reached, they need their MiG-29s.

Ooops!

 

[fresh_42]

People here are starting to hoard iodine pills.

 

[fresh_42]

Source? I think they have bombs, but bombs are not missiles. In particular, you can shoot down planes.

There is currently est. 15-20 nuclear missiles on German soil, all under full US control. Germany doesn't have its own bombs, and therefore doesn't need missiles either. I would be surprised if there was more than - possibly wide range - artillery.

 

[Frabjous]

There is currently est. 15-20 nuclear missiles on German soil, all under full US control. Germany doesn't have its own bombs, and therefore doesn't need missiles either. I would be surprised if there was more than - possibly wide range - artillery.

I believe that the US has eliminated nuclear artillery from its arsenal. I believe the bombs are to be released to Germany in the event of war.

 

[fresh_42]

I believe that the US has eliminated nuclear artillery from its arsenal. I believe the bombs are to be released to Germany in the event of war.

The news a few seconds ago talked about up to 20 nuclear bombs in Rheinland-Pfalz.

 

[Frabjous]

The news a few seconds ago talked about up to 20 nuclear bombs in Rheinland-Pfalz.

“Germany has no nuclear weapons of its own, but it stores 20 or fewer U.S. B-61 nuclear gravity bombsat Büchel air base, and maintains a fleet of aging Tornado fighter bombers to deliver them.”
from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/orde...s-debate-in-germany-touches-a-raw-nato-nerve/

 

[morrobay]

Cold War 2 is better than WW3. So why not divide Ukraine: East Ukraine, West Ukraine. This is time for diplomacy

 

[fresh_42]

So why not divide Ukraine: East Ukraine, West Ukraine.

Because it can't be that Russia is simply taking what it wants. Who will be next? Kasachstan?

 

[fresh_42]

“Germany has no nuclear weapons of its own, but it stores 20 or fewer U.S. B-61 nuclear gravity bombsat Büchel air base, and maintains a fleet of aging Tornado fighter bombers to deliver them.”
from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/orde...s-debate-in-germany-touches-a-raw-nato-nerve/

I guess the silos still exist, empty or not.

And thanks to Trump the INF no longer exists.

 

[Frabjous]

And thanks to Trump the INF no longer exists.

While not claiming that the withdrawal was a good thing, I do not think that it was calamitous. The military utility of nuclear weapons is actually fairly limited and given their costs, the days of 10’s of thousands of warheads are not coming back.

 

[fresh_42]

While not claiming that the withdrawal was a good thing

It simply means that Europe is a potential battlefield of nuclear war again, not less!

 

[Frabjous]

It simply means that Europe is a potential battlefield of nuclear war again, not less!

Strategic use in Europe never disappeared, and it is not clear that tactical is ever coming back.

 

[Astronuc]

I've seen headlines and pictures of a long (40 mile/64 km) Russian military convoy headed to Kyiv.

Edit/update on the convoy. It appears to have stalled.
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083...talled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

I hope they stop, turn around and go home. Enough already.

I also read a headline and summary that claimed Russian soldiers are knocking holes in the fuel tanks of their vehicles rather than continue into the conflict. I don't know the veracity of that claim, but if so, it would be an interesting turn. I don't know from where Business Insider collects their information.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-troops-have-punched-holes-their-own-gas-tanks-2022-3

I just wish Russia would stop this insanity and go home. Too much violence already.

 

[StevieTNZ]

The State of the Union is occurring. Biden opens it with remarks about the illegal invasion by Russia of Ukraine.

 

[Klystron]

Sorry if this has been answered before, but I do have a question:

What threat does Ukraine pose to Russia, if Ukraine join NATO?

Among other issues, NATO defensive weaponry installed in Ukraine inhibits Russia to her west.

“Germany has no nuclear weapons of its own, but it stores 20 or fewer U.S. B-61 nuclear gravity bombsat Büchel air base, and maintains a fleet of aging Tornado fighter bombers to deliver them.”
from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/orde...s-debate-in-germany-touches-a-raw-nato-nerve/

Aging or not, do not discount attack by Tornados. While modern technology of the battle space reduces the role of aircraft for information gathering, these fighter bombers stand off and deliver ordnance in manner as difficult to counter as sea/air/ground launched cruise missiles, with increased discretion and adaptability of a crew.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Aging or not, do not discount attack by Tornados. While modern technology of the battle space reduces the role of aircraft for information gathering, these fighter bombers stand off and deliver ordnance in manner as difficult to counter as sea/air/ground launched cruise missiles, with increased discretion and adaptability of a crew.

They also uh, drop nuclear weapons, which seems like a thing no one would ever discount.

 

[Astronuc]

Some insight into Putin and the current situation from Fiona Hill.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340

“Every time you think, ’No, he [Putin] wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would,” Hill said. “And he wants us to know that, of course. It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we’re going to do to head them off.”

Rather sobering perspective.

Hill: It doesn’t mean that he’s going to annex all of them and make them part of the Russian Federation like they’ve done with Crimea. You can establish dominance by marginalizing regional countries, by making sure that their leaders are completely dependent on Moscow, either by Moscow practically appointing them through rigged elections or ensuring they are tethered to Russian economic and political and security networks. You can see this now across the former Soviet space.

We’ve seen pressure being put on Kazakhstan to reorient itself back toward Russia, instead of balancing between Russia and China, and the West. And just a couple of days before the invasion of Ukraine in a little-noticed act, https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance. This is significant because Azerbaijan’s leader has been resisting this for decades. And we can also see that Russia has made itself the final arbiter of the future relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia has also been marginalized after being a thorn in Russia’s side for decades. And Belarus is now completely subjugated by Moscow.

But amid all this, Ukraine was the country that got away. And what Putin is saying now is that Ukraine doesn’t belong to Ukrainians. It belongs to him and the past. He is going to wipe Ukraine off the map, literally, because it doesn’t belong on his map of the “Russian world.” He’s basically told us that. He might leave behind some rump statelets. When we look at old maps of Europe — probably the maps he’s been looking at — you find all kinds of strange entities, like the Sanjak of Novi Pazar in the Balkans. I used to think, what the hell is that? These are all little places that have dependency on a bigger power and were created to prevent the formation of larger viable states in contested regions. Basically, if Vladimir Putin has his way, Ukraine is not going to exist as the modern-day Ukraine of the last 30 years.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

Cold War 2 is better than WW3. So why not divide Ukraine: East Ukraine, West Ukraine. This is time for diplomacy

This won’t work. Putin’s vision remains fixed. The totality of it remains unknown. But there are clues. What will he do with Ukraine? My thoughts and theory:

It appears as if the plan is for Belarus to take up the land in the West of Ukraine- a thin tract snaking beside Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. Thereby creating another border between NATO nations and Russia. Putin feels insecure and there is no way he would leave this area to Ukraine if he takes it. This could also explain the actions and conviction that we are seeing from Lukashenko- where he will be his defense against NATO. Land and energy, as well as security is something he would want- he’s already rich enough.

With Russia then claiming the Southern portions of Ukraine as to box it in. The last phase would be taking Moldova much later- because if they got away with taking Ukraine then this would be a piece of cake. This would establish security in the Black Sea and allow him to exercise more dominance in the area later on. This plan fufills all the needs that he has. The President of Ukraine will be appointed by him. This is the triunion.

Allowing Ukraine to split and remain independent is incompatible with his vision. Placing a nuclear-ready arsenal in Western Ukraine (given to Belarus) and sprawling out of Belarus in the West extends his reach to Western Europe considerably. Finally, at least seven NATO nations that he feels in control of- with nukes pointed right at all of them. How perverse is that? Think about it. He doesn’t have that now, but he would have that then with this arrangement. This is why he wants Ukraine. Taking Ukraine without doing this is pointless.

His vision likely does not include nuclear war until after this plan is complete. He is not ready- that he needs Ukraine tells us this. He is a perfectionist. He probably is uncomfortable with thoughts of nuking any other country until he has achieved this vision. This vision of how it would go down. How it would be organized and how he would be assured that he could win if he had to. And I don’t think he has releasing a nuke in his vision EVER- all this effort is just precaution. If he cannot take Ukraine, then this vision cannot be completed and he may become more impulsive and unstable. He will not drop this vision unless he can find another one that meets his needs of feeling secure- this probably won’t happen because he is closed off to the information he would need to establish one that works. Anyway, my theory.