Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[bob012345]

Russia has been expelled by the UN human rights council:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/07/russia-suspended-un-human-rights-council-ukraine

Weak. Why aren't they expelled from the Security Council? Or from the U.N. period? The United Nations needs to have minimum standards for membership.

 

[Astronuc]

Russia has been expelled by the UN human rights council:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/07/russia-suspended-un-human-rights-council-ukraine

Why am I not surprised. I listened last night to an interview with the coroner from Bucha. It was troubling to listen to the descriptions of those who were executed, on the streets, as well as in buildings.

I'm getting tired of western commentators say things like 'it looks like war crimes', or 'there will be an investigation of war crimes'. The whole war, i.e., unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Putin's forces, is a war crime and more so a crime against humanity, and all actions by Russian military are de facto war crimes.

 

[artis]

You know , I am starting to entertain a possibility that isn't realistic now but might have been the better solution.
Now we are doing sanctions and all kinds of political twists but none of that actually changes the situation in Ukraine in any real way. All these sanctions and cutting on gas imports is like a sword with no hand hold, it is pushing into our enemy as much as it is cutting us up as well.

The way I see it is, the only reason Putin did not take Kyiv and murder Zelensky is because his army couldn't , they had too low of a morale and in the words of Girkin from Donbas, because Ukraine's soldiers are fighting on A level. It wasn't the sanctions that stopped that, it was real guns and real people fighting.

Maybe we should have done just some sanctions without hurting ourselves and instead just sent twice or thrice as much weapons and put some real power up against theirs, I know I did not say this before but it's just a thought.
The idea that by starving Russian "babushkas" they will form another paramilitary force and oust Putin from power in a similar way the Bolsheviks murdered the Czar is not only unlikely but somewhat naive.

This is like trying to stop a serial killer by taking away his food stamps, not really a viable way of stopping an aggressor.
Speaking of food, there are rumors rather realistic ones, that some Russian soldiers have skinned down and cooked some Ukrainian dogs for lunch. But then again dogs are consumed as meat in some parts of the world even in peace time so by that token not so horrible I guess. And some Russian troops are from the far east so that would explain stuff

 

[Klystron]

...
Now we are doing sanctions and all kinds of political twists but none of that actually changes the situation in Ukraine in any real way. All these sanctions and cutting on gas imports is like a sword with no hand hold, it is pushing into our enemy as much as it is cutting us up as well. ...

Look at the larger picture in a longer time frame. As an analogy, you cannot view a movie by glimpsing a few frames or follow the plot of a novel by reading one paragraph.

Military operations involve tedious logistics and careful planning. Feints, misdirection and frustration mark irregular warfare. Stories and war movies often have clean endings that adhere to a moral imperative. I can say from experience that modern wars never truly end, 'bad guys' often go unpunished, and innocents always disproportionally suffer.

[edit 20220408: added limiter 'often'. Thanks @PeroK ]

 

[phinds]

Military operations involve tedious logistics and careful planning. Feints, misdirection and frustration mark irregular warfare. Stories and war movies have clean endings that adhere to a moral imperative. I can say from experience that modern wars never truly end, 'bad guys' often go unpunished, and innocents always disproportionally suffer.

True dat !

 

[bob012345]

Russians discussed killings of civilians in radio traffic intercepted by Germany, officials say​

The conversations were intercepted from Russian military radio and include one Russian telling another that first you interrogate people and then you kill them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/07/...lings-russian-communications-intercepted.html

 

[phinds]

Russians discussed killings of civilians in radio traffic intercepted by Germany, officials say​

The conversations were intercepted from Russian military radio and include one Russian telling another that first you interrogate people and then you kill them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/07/...lings-russian-communications-intercepted.html

NYT is not a free/open site. Some other reference would be better.

 

[bob012345]

NYT is not a free/open site. Some other reference would be better.

https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...-bucha-a-0a191c96-634f-4d07-8c5c-c4a772315b0d

 

[Isopod]

A little breakdown of some of the weapons the West is pledging to Ukraine:

 

[Vanadium 50]

The United Nations needs to have minimum standards for membership.

Diplomacy only with people you already like doesn't get you very far.

 

[bob012345]

Diplomacy only with people you already like doesn't get you very far.

There are limits to diplomacy. Churchill took the decision not to negotiate with Hitler and he was right. What you do with leaders like Hitler is you destroy them, not make deals with them. Putin has instructed his troops to act like the SS in Ukraine so he is now beyond political redemption. There is no legitimate path for diplomacy with Russia so long as it is led by Putin. Western leaders should make that clear.

 

[Klystron]

NYT is not a free/open site. Some other reference would be better.

https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...-bucha-a-0a191c96-634f-4d07-8c5c-c4a772315b0d

FYI Der Spiegel site blocks my browser unless I agree to join. No problem as I can read NYT articles.

 

[phinds]

FYI Der Spiegel site blocks my browser unless I agree to join. No problem as I can read NYT articles.

Huh. NYT blocks my browser unless I join. No problem as I can read Der Spiegel articles.

Maybe it depends on how many freebies we've gotten from each site.

 

[BillTre]

Maybe it depends on how many freebies we've gotten from each site.

This is how NY Times wotrks. Some low number of articles/month.

 

[strangerep]

Russia has been expelled by the UN human rights council:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/07/russia-suspended-un-human-rights-council-ukraine

I know very little detail about how the UN is constituted, so I'm wondering whether "permanent" members of the security council are indeed truly permanent, or could be removed by a large majority vote by the General Assembly? Or is it totally impossible to remove a "permanent member" without disintegrating the entire UN?

 

[phinds]

This is how NY Times wotrks. Some low number of articles/month.

Right and I constantly reach my limit early

 

[strangerep]

Putin has instructed his troops to act like the SS in Ukraine [...]

Coincidentally, I watched a tv documentary last night about the "Barbarossa" operation in WW2. It's astonishingly "deja vu" how Stalin refused (delusionally) to realize that a massive Wehrmacht buildup on the USSR borders was just "performing exercises" according to Hitler.
I also hadn't realized how vehemently Hitler wanted his invading troops and SS to kill absolutely everyone.

 

[artis]

Look at the larger picture in a longer time frame. As an analogy, you cannot view a movie by glimpsing a few frames or follow the plot of a novel by reading one paragraph.

Indeed and in the longer time frame if I add in what has happened with the invasion so far I think I would be +- on the mark if I said that if Ukraine had better tools from the start they actually had a chance to inflict 2x as much damage to the Russians as they currently have , add to that the Russian mistakes and morale problems there I think there was a real possibility to make them suffer so much so that they have to retreat and can't even regroup to start a smaller single front in the east as they are doing now.
The Finns made the Red army suffer plenty back in 1940 in way more dismal conditions and eventually due to Red army mistakes won.

bad guys' often go unpunished, and innocents always disproportionally suffer.

Yes true, but again the suffering happened mostly because Ukrainian front was outnumbered in weapons systems. The actual number of men fighting is roughly equal (about 200k troops before invasion at the border, Ukraine has about 200k active members in total) and from Russian own commander rhetoric the Ukrainian side actually seems to fight more fiercely and are better prepared.probably not a popular opinion but the reality is that Ukraine somewhat suffers from the same problems Russia does, according to Transparency international Ukraine is in the 122nd place for corruption globally, that is just 14 spots above Russia IIRC.
https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/ukraine

I already gave the video explaining how Ukraine was asked to scrap their Soviet strategic bombers, some given back to Russia. Many of their weapons systems were left for total disrepair until 2014, sure enough with a pro Moscow president.

Anyway I'm just saying that the way it looks now it is by no means clear which side would have been the

disproportionally suffer.

(Soviets lost about 15k men in Afghanistan in 10 years, Russians have lost probably more than that in a month or so now, speaking about disproportion...)
and whether

'bad guys' often go unpunished

 

[artis]

US supplies to reinforce Poland is what it seems, I wonder what that large bulldozer is for, is that for making large trenches for border fortifications of tanks and such? @Klystron

 

[artis]

You can watch this video, switch on English subtitles, I finally found this version, it was in Russian TV before this invasion, some time ago.
You will be shocked, but this is just business a usual for them. @wrobel haven't you seen this in case?


From a military stance there is some truth to that, the "Suwalki corridor" or gap is indeed a weak point from a military approach.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/suwalki-gap.htm

Here is a short and good video explaining what this gap is about and how dangerous of a weakness it is.
I myself think there is only one way of both cementing NATO trust and solving the physical problem of defending the Baltics, simply there need to be much more NATO permanent troops stationed here. And we need some god damn weapons, I hope those SAM's arrive here soon...
It is rather risky to simply have that 5th article of NATO on paper but no "boots" on the ground and if in case Russia does pull off a successful "blitzkrieg" to take the Suwalki and encircle the Baltics those NATO fast response forces might not have time to arrive while the little force here on the ground might not be enough to hold off. Then what does NATO do?

 

[PeroK]

Stories and war movies have clean endings that adhere to a moral imperative.

That depends on the books you choose to read and the movies you choose to watch.

 

[pinball1970]

Diplomacy only with people you already like doesn't get you very far.

Not that clear cut regarding the voting. Some votes against expected and possibly a few abstentions but I did not expect these numbers.From the BBC today

“93 UN member states backed the US-led move to suspend Russia. But there are 193 UN members, so less than half voted in favour:

58 abstained, 24 voted against, a further 18 were out of the room having what UN diplomats wryly call a "strategic coffee break".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60991746

 

[PeroK]

Not that clear cut regarding the voting. Some votes against expected and possibly a few abstentions but I did not expect these numbers.From the BBC today

“93 UN member states backed the US-led move to suspend Russia. But there are 193 UN members, so less than half voted in favour:

58 abstained, 24 voted against, a further 18 were out of the room having what UN diplomats wryly call a "strategic coffee break".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60991746

Nevertheless, it's the first time that India has defied Russia. If India does not eventually recoil at the horror of the Russian atrocities, then the future of humanity is bleak indeed.

 

[artis]

A really good interview ,


I think Snider is right , nobody believed Ukraine can win this (I'll be honest I also didn't), now the prospect is real, the battle ground is also known in advance , Russians have been rather open about where they will be. They will be in the east and around Crimea and Mariupol where they already are. The time is also known, Putin will hold his 9th may WW2 victory parade in Red square as is done annually so he has about a month so Ukraine has about a month. It is then a surreal and violent form of a "Squid game" (yes I liked that show) now where the side that is able to hold out the longest and inflict the most damage wins.

This means basically one thing, there needs to be a huge column of weapons heading through Poland into Ukraine. Given we here have already donated about 1/3 of our annual defense budget in weapons to Ukraine, I ask where is Germany, France, UK and US ofcourse, the sum of money needed is so huge only they can pull it off together.

 

[vela]

Right and I constantly reach my limit early

Try using a private window in your browser to access the site. That's how I usually get around those kinds of limits.

 

[artis]

I updated myself this morning on some news. Sharing it in this post



This one is especially depressing , a 11 year old girl explains death and genocide so calmly


Some more destruction and rubble




By the way I just noticed something if you look at the word "rubble" it needs one less "b" to turn into the Russian currency. And it sounds almost the same from the start...

 

[pinball1970]

Nevertheless, it's the first time that India has defied Russia. If India does not eventually recoil at the horror of the Russian atrocities, then the future of humanity is bleak indeed.

Fair play to India
No one in their right mind would think these actions are ethical, justified.

The countries that abstained or voted against obviously have a mandate, no matter what do not vote against Russia.

Political or financial connections zero to do with ethics or humanitarian side.

Putin does not have a great record with forgive and forget with people who have criticized him.

 

[artis]

The countries that abstained or voted against obviously have a mandate, no matter what do not vote against Russia.

The same reason why China is building infrastructure in Africa in their "Belt and road" initiative.
They are sort of tying the hands of poor countries behind their backs so that not only they owe them a debt but they also feel "respect" towards China which might manifest as a refusal to condemn a potential future aggression by China towards it's neighbors.

Taiwan clearly comes to mind as an example.

China so far has been "tip toeing" their imperial policy like a ballet dancer with a rifle on their back. Successfully avoiding direct cruelty and violence (unless you count the domestic violence happening within China) but I myself share no illusion as to what China is capable and how they would do it in a second if they knew they could get away with it.

 

[MikeeMiracle]

Weak. Why aren't they expelled from the Security Council? Or from the U.N. period? The United Nations needs to have minimum standards for membership.

That would just further the narrative that the UN is controlled by the west and things like the decisions of prosecutions of the ICC are also a tool used by the west to further their own influence. Have they ever investigated alleged war crimes of western soldiers actions in the countless wars we have been involved with over the years? The US was even demanding that their own soldiers are exempt from prosecution. Why does this matter? It all feeds into the mindset that they are tools used by the west used to influence others. In effect Russia and China see everything stacked against them which has some basis of truth to it.

As a scientific forum if someone proposes a new theory we demand proof, evidence and cross referencing. These same standards should be applied to the coverage of geopolitical events, blindly believing one narrative without any attempts to understand the other side just entrenches peoples views and puts us on a path to further conflict, which I fear we are currently on.

 

[MikeeMiracle]

As for the responses to my previous thread about "over simplifying" the situation. You can't really get more over simplified than the default "Good vs Evil" narrative we are fed in our national media EVERY time we get involved in a conflict. It is almost never as simple as this and there are always two sides to all stories. The last time a simple "Good vs Evil" case existed was against Hitler IMO. What we consider "Good" or "Evil" just depends on which side of the fence you sit. One sides terrorist is another sides freedom fighter.