Need some guidance on sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

[knight92]

Hi, I have a set of results for which I wish to carry out sensitivity analysis. I have already googled it and it always comes up with examples on Microsoft Excel but I don't want to use excel for the sensitivity analysis. So can someone explain to me what sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are? As I understand it, its introducing 'what-if' scenarios but I have already completed my experiment and have the results.

The experimental results consist of hot water going into a radiator where the inlet and outlet temperatures are recorded giving delta temperature. Air passes through the radiator dissipating heat and the air temperature before and after passing through the radiator are measured. So I will be calculating the heat transfers. In this case should I introduce my own values just to show how the calculation of the heat transfer will change in case of a "what-if" scenario ?

Thank you.

 

[Stephen Tashi]

Why do you want to do uncertainty and sensitivity analysis?

Are you doing this project to learn what that type of analysis is? Did someone assign you to do such an analysis?

 

[knight92]

Why do you want to do uncertainty and sensitivity analysis?

Are you doing this project to learn what that type of analysis is? Did someone assign you to do such an analysis?

Yes I want to learn what the analysis is, I have tried looking it up except I can't wrap my head around to what it actually is?

 

[MarneMath]

Sensitivity analysis isn't just one thing. It requires many things and all require a good breadth of understanding of the subtle assumptions built into the test. If you wish to calculate a what-if scenario you may run a simulation and perform many of such runs and see how it handles in different environment. You may wish to assume (or see) if there exist a linear relationship and build a linear regression and then test the so called beta coefficients. You may wish to augment this by using a partial F-test by changing one variable at a time, this method being fairly common.

Uncertainty analysis is even boarder. Some of it may just be using the appropriate statistical estimation, at other time it's about accounting for bias, and even so it may even reference back to the experiment design, which is another thing all together.

So the first thing to do in this is to try to determine what kind of model do you wish to build.

 

[blue_raver22]

Hello,

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are important tools in the field of scientific research, especially in experimental studies like yours. Sensitivity analysis is the process of determining how changes in input parameters or variables affect the output of a system or model. It is used to identify the most influential factors in a system and understand how changes in those factors will impact the overall results.

Uncertainty analysis, on the other hand, is the process of quantifying the degree of uncertainty in your experimental results. It involves identifying and evaluating the sources of uncertainty in your measurements and calculations, and determining how they may affect the accuracy and reliability of your findings.

In your case, sensitivity analysis can help you identify which variables have the most significant impact on the heat transfer in the radiator. This will allow you to focus on those variables and potentially make adjustments to improve the efficiency of the system. Uncertainty analysis, on the other hand, can help you understand the potential errors and limitations in your measurements and calculations, and provide a more accurate representation of your results.

It is not necessary to use Microsoft Excel for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. There are various software programs and statistical methods that can be used for these analyses. However, if you are comfortable with Excel, it can also be a useful tool for conducting these analyses.

In terms of introducing "what-if" scenarios, it is not necessary to change your actual experimental results. Instead, you can use your existing data to simulate different scenarios and evaluate their impact on the heat transfer. This can help you understand the robustness of your results and identify any potential weaknesses or limitations in your experimental setup.

I hope this helps clarify the concepts of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for you. If you need further guidance, I suggest consulting with a statistician or a research methodology expert who can provide more specific advice based on your experimental design and data.

Best of luck with your analysis!