Normal distribution vs.exponential

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the modeling of bus headway times, specifically the use of normal distribution versus exponential distribution. Participants explore the reasons behind the assumption of normal distribution in certain articles, despite inter-arrival times typically being modeled with exponential distribution. The conversation touches on theoretical aspects, assumptions in modeling, and the implications of combining different distributions.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants question why normal distribution is assumed for bus headway times when exponential distribution is more common for inter-arrival times.
  • One participant suggests that the assumption of normal distribution may be due to factors like passenger boarding and alighting times affecting the overall travel time.
  • Another participant notes that the normal distribution is not an example of an exponential distribution, clarifying a misunderstanding about their relationship.
  • There is a suggestion that if bus headways are exponential and stop times follow a different distribution, their sum may not be exponential, potentially leading to a normal approximation under certain conditions.
  • Participants express uncertainty about the implications of combining different distributions and the appropriateness of the normal assumption in this context.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the appropriateness of the normal distribution assumption for bus headway times. Multiple competing views remain regarding the relationship between normal and exponential distributions and their application in this context.

Contextual Notes

There are unresolved questions regarding the assumptions made in the modeling of bus travel times, particularly concerning the support of the distributions and the conditions under which a normal approximation might be valid.

Mark J.
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Sorry because I have asked this other times but still not getting a reasonable answer:

For bus headway times why in several articles they make assumption of normal distribution??
Generally inter-arrival times are modeled using exponential distribution but in some papers
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/atr.5670250304/abstract
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0191261586900366

normal distribution is assumed.
Which are the reasons to make this assumption?
Maybe because the real time is calculated including time for passengers to enter in bus and departing?
Maybe because of normal distribution quality of modeling deviations from some point (scheduled time) ?

Please help
Regards
 
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Exponential distributions are a family of distributions that include the normal distribution. Generally, whenever something can be modeled by an exponential distribution and there is no addition information to clearly specify which specific exponential distribution is to be used, a normal distribution will be assumed for various reasons that include the central limit theorem and some basic results from information theory (the normal distribution has the greatest amount of "uncertainty" associated with it out of all exponential distributions, and so, in a sense, it makes fewer assumptions than the others).
 
Yes but it is rather vague.
I was thinking if travel time = bus headway + time spent at the stop then if bus headways for example are exponential and time spent at the stop some other distribution than I gues their sum is not exponential but someway renewal process so maybe there will be some approximation to normal?
 
Number nine, the normal distribution is not an example of an exponential distribution.

Mark, reading the second paper (pdf found here http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~maged/publications/Optimal%20Holding%20Times.pdf ) I see that the amount by which a bus is late is modeled as a normal distribution, but I don't see where they talk about the amount of time between buses being a normal distribution (which doesn't really make sense because the distribution should have only non-negative numbers as its support)
 
Office Shredder you are totally right.
Anyway is there any orientation about normal assumption in bus travel time modeling you can give please?
Best regards
 
Number nine, the normal distribution is not an example of an exponential distribution.

I interpreted the OP (perhaps incorrectly) as being about something from the exponential family of distributions, of which the normal distribution is a member. In retrospect, that's almost certainly not what he's talking about.
 

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