North Korea about to launch ICBM test and/or space satellite

[signerror]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/04/world/asia/04korea.html

Neighboring governments were on heightened alert on Friday, and had navy ships with missile-tracking radar deployed in waters near North Korea. For its part, the North reportedly moved jet fighters closer to the launching site and threatened counter-attack if any government tried to stop it.

“It’s too early to say for sure whether the object the North is launching is a satellite or a missile,” said Lee Jong-joo, a government spokeswoman in Seoul. “But our principled position is that whether this is a missile or something else, it threatens peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.”

The countdown could begin as early as Saturday morning, and North Korea says its rocket will blast off sometime between then and Wednesday. It warned aircraft to stay clear of its easterly trajectory over northern Japan, toward the Pacific.

 

[rootX]

I was thinking what's preventing them to attack North Korea. Longer they wait, harder it gets to attack NK IMO.

 

[Woody101]

Since the only place in the U.S. that this missle could reach is Alaska I would guess that the current administration will do little to prevent the launch:rofl:

Seriously though the thought of a nuclear tipped missle in the hands of that mad man are a very sobering although but I don't see how he can be stopped without some sort of attack and I am sure that would provoke an all out war with North Korea and I don't think that we or the rest of the world are prepared for that.

Who was it that said "The trouble with politicians is they always leave us with one more war to fight"

 

[mheslep]

Since the only place in the U.S. that this missle could reach is Alaska ...

That's the ~1000kg payload. The 100kg payload can reach anywhere.

 

[misgfool]

I was thinking what's preventing them to attack North Korea. Longer they wait, harder it gets to attack NK IMO.

Why should they attack? Just let NK boast and the trade embargo takes care of the rest. Sure NK may have a nuke, but they know that using it will be their demise.

 

[Phrak]

North Korea is within China's sphere. They get some use allowing Kim the Ill a long leash. He seems to be their test monkey.

 

[Wellesley]

Why should they attack? Just let NK boast and the trade embargo takes care of the rest. Sure NK may have a nuke, but they know that using it will be their demise.

There have been sanctions imposed against North Korea since the Korean War. Since 2007 (maybe a little later), the U.S. has placed severe embargoes on NK. Has this stopped them from creating these missiles?

 

[misgfool]

There have been sanctions imposed against North Korea since the Korean War. Since 2007 (maybe a little later), the U.S. has placed severe embargoes on NK. Has this stopped them from creating these missiles?

No, I guess not, but what difference does it make? If they want to make missiles and let their people starve, so be it. We have much more important issues to solve. I just don't see, what makes their actions newsworthy.

 

[Hurkyl]

I just don't see, what makes their actions newsworthy.

A few things, I assume.

The most obvious serious problem is that they are firing the vehicle for a weapon of mass destruction through Japanese airspace -- a nation with which they have a tense relationship -- and I believe without permission as well.

There's also a symbolic bit of firing towards the United States.

And also, there is the sticky issue that their leader is widely believed to be unstable -- so any capability (and demonstration) of the ability to use said weapons is worrysome.

Oh, and from the news article, this would seem to be a direct challenge to the international community that has banned NK From firing such missles.

 

[misgfool]

A few things, I assume.

The most obvious serious problem is that they are firing the vehicle for a weapon of mass destruction through Japanese airspace -- a nation with which they have a tense relationship -- and I believe without permission as well.

There's also a symbolic bit of firing towards the United States.

But the sea is also in the East, so it could also be a coincidence. And you can choose whether it is symbolical or not.

And also, there is the sticky issue that their leader is widely believed to be unstable -- so any capability (and demonstration) of the ability to use said weapons is worrysome.

Oh, and from the news article, this would seem to be a direct challenge to the international community that has banned NK From firing such missles.

Looks like China isn't a part of the consensus within the international community. Without China there is little that can be done to NK.

 

[Wellesley]

But the sea is also in the East, so it could also be a coincidence. And you can choose whether it is symbolical or not.

True, the sea is in the east, but why send it over Japan and cause commotion, when they could have sent it over China, or Russia and avoid world condemnation?

 

[OAQfirst]

Looks like China isn't a part of the consensus within the international community. Without China there is little that can be done to NK.

I can't blame China for worrying about a refugee crisis if war comes a knockin on NK's door. Still, there's a lot that can be done without China's blessings, including forceful action.

 

[misgfool]

True, the sea is in the east, but why send it over Japan and cause commotion, when they could have sent it over China, or Russia and avoid world condemnation?

I guess one shouldn't bite the feeding hand.

 

[misgfool]

I can't blame China for worrying about a refugee crisis if war comes a knockin on NK's door. Still, there's a lot that can be done without China's blessings, including forceful action.

Such as?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Japan has stated that they will shoot it down if it enters their airspace. NK has threatened to retaliate if that happens.

SEOUL, South Korea (AP, AFP) – North Korea's military has threatened immediate retaliation if "even the slightest effort'' is made to intercept a rocket that it plans to launch in the next few days...

http://mb.com.ph/articles/201205/north-korea-threatens-retaliate

There is also concern that it may not be carrying a satellite. Given the posture of NK, we have to assume that it could be anything. For one, we have to assume that they might try to nuke Japan. If it is true that it could reach the mainland US with a smaller payload, then that is certainly a huge concern. How do we know it doesn't have a smaller payload than claimed?

I almost think we should destroy it where it sits. But we may well destroy it after launch. We already have a good bit of the Navy sitting nearby and waiting.

 

[signerror]

Japan has stated that they will shoot it down if it enters their airspace.

Can they do that? This is an ICBM - as far as I know, there is no practical way to shoot one down after the boost stage.

There is also concern that it may not be carrying satellite. Given the posture of NK, we have to assume that it could be anything. For one, we have to assume that they might try to nuke Japan.
I almost think we should destroy it where it sits.

I think I agree.

 

[misgfool]

For one, we have to assume that they might try to nuke Japan.

C'mon. That is a rather bold assumption. Do you have any facts to support that?

 

[Hurkyl]

C'mon. That is a rather bold assumption. Do you have any facts to support that?

He never said it was the most likely possibility -- he simply said we have to assume it.

 

[misgfool]

He never said it was the most likely possibility -- he simply said we have to assume it.

Ok, but would you disagree, if we base our actions on the most likely possibility? In any case you have to have at least some evidence to back up all assumptions regardless of their likelihood.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Ok, but would you disagree, if we base our actions on the most likely possibility? In any case you have to have at least some evidence to back up all assumptions regardless of their likelihood.

This is a military matter. We have to consider all possibilities and provide for a reaction in each case. I seriously doubt that anyone could put hard numbers on the "likelihood" of each possibility - esp given that we are dealing with a madman.

 

[Hurkyl]

In any case you have to have at least some evidence to back up all assumptions regardless of their likelihood.

North Korea plans to shoot an ICBM towards Japan, a country it is unfriendly towards. :tongue:

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Can they do that? This is an ICBM - as far as I know, there is no practical way to shoot one down after the boost stage

It is easiest to hit before the boost stage. I don't know the publically stated limitations beyond that; nor do we have anyway to know if the claimed limitations are true. Our true abilities here are certainly most highly classified.

I would guess that the publically stated limitations are those of the National Missile Defense program.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Then there is the little matter of a million people being ready to attack Seoul.

 

[misgfool]

This is a military matter. We have to consider all possibilities and provide for a reaction in each case. I seriously doubt that anyone could put hard numbers on the "likelihood" of each possibility - esp given that we are dealing with a madman.

It is possible to put cases to some order and obviously it is prudent to prepare for all possibilities. Now I know that the preemptive doctrine is appealing, but remember that the aggressor is the one making the first strike.

North Korea plans to shoot an ICBM towards Japan, a country it is unfriendly towards. :tongue:

Well, that is a good start. Keep it coming. :)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Whether or not preemptive action should be taken is the question of the day. The problem is that we don't have any reliable information.

The key to avoiding WWIII without an endless MAD arms race [Mutually Assured Destruction] has been "trust but verify".

The potential for preemptive action results from Korea's posture and unpredictability. The lesson all emerging powers must learn -the one that NK doesn't understand - is that with power comes grave responsibility. One small miscalculation could inadvertently escalate to a global nuclear conflict.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Well, that is a good start. Keep it coming. :)

No one needs to justify our national defense when faced with such an unknown. Maybe you require justification, but you will see just how little that matters. What's more, Japan is claiming a violation of airspace.

 

[OAQfirst]

Such as?

Forceful action, up to and including war. We did it in Iraq and Afghanistan, if I recall correctly. Not very promising options, but China had little weight in the matter. Now we have a cruel man who tosses around violent rhetoric and isn't fooling anyone with his "space program."

 

[misgfool]

The problem is that we don't have any reliable information.

Exactly. Let's not forget this.

The potential for preemptive action results from Korea's posture and unpredictability. The lesson all emerging powers must learn -the one that NK doesn't understand - is that with power comes grave responsibility. One small miscalculation could inadvertently escalate to a global nuclear conflict.

Have you considered the possibility that the preemptive strike may trigger a conflict as well?

 

[Hurkyl]

Not that it matters, but I think we're past the point where the adjective "preemptive" applies.

 

[Count Iblis]

All this talk about shooting down the missile has only made things far worse. Of course, Japan will not shoot down the rocket. They will only shoot down some debris if they threaten to fall on Japan.

What would happen if the launch fails and Kim thinks that's because Japan shot it down?

 

[misgfool]

No one needs to justify our national defense when faced with such an unknown.

That is a very dangerous policy for all. Including you.

Maybe you require justification, but you will see just how little that matters.

I know, I guess I'm still hoping that the US comes to it's senses. As you said "with power comes responsibility".

Forceful action, up to and including war. We did it in Iraq and Afghanistan, if I recall correctly. Not very promising options, but China had little weight in the matter. Now we have a cruel man who tosses around violent rhetoric and isn't fooling anyone with his "space program."

Yes, I believe I have heard of these excursions. But unlike weak Iraq or Afghanistan, NK may actually have nuclear devices, chemical or biological weapons etc. And it has its artillery aimed at Seoul with a population of 10 million. Attacking NK may mean the destruction of Seoul. Are you sure you wish to take that risk?

 

[misgfool]

Not that it matters, but I think we're past the point where the adjective "preemptive" applies.

What do you mean?

 

[Count Iblis]

A long range missile that takes several days to be fueled is not a practical weapon. The North Koreans need to develop long range solid fuel missiles that can carry a nuclear warhead. Also, they need to develop thermonuclear devices.

While a few Hiroshima sized bombs would do huge damage, they won't win a war for North Korea.

 

[OAQfirst]

Yes, I believe I have heard of these excursions. But unlike weak Iraq or Afghanistan, NK may actually have nuclear devices, chemical or biological weapons etc. And it has its artillery aimed at Seoul with a population of 10 million. Attacking NK may mean the destruction of Seoul. Are you sure you wish to take that risk?

It's not my risk or decision to make. Now you're going on a tangent that is far from my original reply: "there's a lot that can be done without China's blessings, including forceful action."

 

[misgfool]

It's not my risk or decision to make. Now you're going on a tangent that is far from my original reply: "there's a lot that can be done without China's blessings, including forceful action."

I was referring to the US as a nation with "you". Now could you personally integrate me back to your reply, since I not entirely following you logic. I would still, however, like to hear what are the forceful actions available while considering the risks.