Odds of genetic trait inheritance using probability?

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SUMMARY

This discussion focuses on predicting the inheritance of two competing genetic traits, Trait A and Trait B, with probabilities of 50.1% and 49.9% respectively, over 8,000 generations. The estimated fertility rate is 2.36 children per woman. The conversation highlights the application of classical Mendelian genetics and the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium to model the expected distribution of phenotypes. The user seeks a method to accurately calculate the dominance of these traits, indicating prior attempts using binary logistic regression and monohybrid crossing were unsuccessful.

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  • Understanding of Mendelian genetics, including dominant and recessive traits.
  • Familiarity with Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium principles.
  • Basic knowledge of probability theory as it applies to genetics.
  • Experience with statistical modeling techniques, such as binary logistic regression.
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  • Research the application of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in predicting allele frequencies.
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itlivesthere
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I'd like to find out a way to predict how dominant a particular trait would be over the course of a particular number of generations. There will be only two traits going head to head, each with a particular probability of outcome.

Let's say the probability that Trait A will display as the phenotype of the population's offspring would be 50.1% (501 per 1000 births).
Let's say the probability that Trait B will display as the phenotype of the population's offspring would be 49.9% (499 per 1000 births).
The estimated total fertility rate is 2.36 children per woman.

I understand that many more variables would be needed for accurate figures, but I'm more interested in a general result to begin with.

Over the course of 8,000 generations of offspring and a constant fertility rate of 2.36, which percentage of the population would display the phenotype of Trait A or of Trait B?

(Note: I've tried binary logistic regression and even monohybrid crossing, but I seem to be screwing it up somehow.)
 
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itlivesthere said:
I'd like to find out a way to predict how dominant a particular trait would be over the course of a particular number of generations. There will be only two traits going head to head, each with a particular probability of outcome.

Let's say the probability that Trait A will display as the phenotype of the population's offspring would be 50.1% (501 per 1000 births).
Let's say the probability that Trait B will display as the phenotype of the population's offspring would be 49.9% (499 per 1000 births).

It's not clear what kind of genetics you're describing. In classical Mendelian genetics the phenotypes resulting from various combinations of dominant (D) and recessive traits (R) will be:

DD=D, DR=D, RD=D, RR=R. Thus the recessive phenotype will appear in 1/4 of the first generation on average.

Where did you get the distribution you described?

EDIT: If you have codominance with 2 alleles, then the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium should hold between heterozygous (pq) and homozygous (p or q) offspring: That is p + q = 1 and p^2 + 2pq + q^2 = 1. Why couldn't you just plug your frequencies into this?
 
Last edited:
SW VandeCarr said:
EDIT: If you have codominance with 2 alleles, then the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium should hold between heterozygous (pq) and homozygous (p or q) offspring: That is p + q = 1 and p^2 + 2pq + q^2 = 1. Why couldn't you just plug your frequencies into this?

Correction to the first equation which should be (p+q)^2 = 1.
 

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