Omicron Variant: Infectious But Less Virulent?

[berkeman]

(Has this already been discussed in the Omicron or other thread?)

So the initial data show that the Omicron variant is way more infectious than the original and Delta variant, but it is significantly less virulent than the previously-predominant Delta variant. We've also discussed how one virus can "displace" other viruses (other variants of Covid and the flu viruses) -- does that mean that a very infectuous but less virulent variant of Covid like Omicron can actually be a good thing?

 

[hutchphd]

I think the latest evidence from South Africa is encouraging. Of course having a very contagous but not-quite-as-lethal virus in general circulation puts us in a high stakes gamble for the next roll of the mutation wheel !
May you live in interesting times.

 

[jim mcnamara]

I don't think there is a good /bad thing in this latest variant. Not the way to look at it. All bad might be a better choice.
Here is why:
https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/22...ure-of-vaccines-and-the-cdcs-variant-forecast

What we are seeing, e.g., diminished hospitalization and short stays, is more the result of vaccinations and previous Covid infections, we are running low on naive patients (never exposed). The net fatalities will be just as bad.

Because of the greater number of cases: 5% percent bad results in 50 million patients impacts hospital resources about the same as 25 million cases with 10% bad results. (my example numbers not real) Same numbers of deaths, long Covid, same DLY - disabled lost years.

So more transmissible means a faster buildup of hospital stays as well.

One nit: transmissible should really be thought of as more fit - in the evolutionary sense ...in case someone who deals with this stuff happens to read this post. Omicron is taking over.

 

[bhobba]

I think it is too early to know - but initial results are encouraging.

I came across the following interesting statistical analysis:
https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/22/omicron-oddity-case-numbers-dont-predict-deaths/

At the moment, I think we need measures to slow it down, such as accelerating the third vaccine dose until we know more. Regardless we have Omicron specific boosters coming early next year, which will undoubtedly help.

Thanks
Bill

 

[CoolMint]

This should explain why deaths will be fewer with Omicron which causes more bronchitis and less pneumonia. https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection