- #1
Buzz Bloom
Gold Member
- 2,517
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I have noticed that many PF participants seem to favor a cosmological model that our universe is infinite (and flat), but some (like myself) favor a finite universe. I have become curious about the subjective probability distribution, so I am hoping that many PF participants will post their subjective estimate of the probability P that it is infinite (or Q=1-P that it is finite).
Here are my own personal subjective probability estimates.
P = 0.2. This means the probability the universe is infinite is 20%, and the probability it is finite is 80%. The data that has mostly influenced my estimates is
I also believe that if the universe is finite, is is hyper-spherical rather than some other topological shape. Also, if it is infinite, it is flat and not hyperbolic.
I also understand that there are many who have reasons to believe the universe is flat, but with the understanding that the current cosmological data cannot possibly distinguish between flatness and a non-flat curvature that is so close to flat that it is not possible to have evidence that distinguishes between these two possibilities. I am wondering if they find this point of view to be interpreted to mean that the probability is close to: 50% that the universe is finite and hyper-spherical, and 50% that is infinite and flat or hyperbolic. I would guess that those who believe in the importance of the flatness problem are likely to have this 50-50 view.
At the present time I do not know how long I will want to keep the poll open. At some point when I feel I have enough contributions, i will calculate and post the mean and standard deviation values.
ADDED May 29
I have decided to cancel this poll since there were NO votes cast during the two weeks since I posted the poll.
Here are my own personal subjective probability estimates.
P = 0.2. This means the probability the universe is infinite is 20%, and the probability it is finite is 80%. The data that has mostly influenced my estimates is
I also believe that if the universe is finite, is is hyper-spherical rather than some other topological shape. Also, if it is infinite, it is flat and not hyperbolic.
I also understand that there are many who have reasons to believe the universe is flat, but with the understanding that the current cosmological data cannot possibly distinguish between flatness and a non-flat curvature that is so close to flat that it is not possible to have evidence that distinguishes between these two possibilities. I am wondering if they find this point of view to be interpreted to mean that the probability is close to: 50% that the universe is finite and hyper-spherical, and 50% that is infinite and flat or hyperbolic. I would guess that those who believe in the importance of the flatness problem are likely to have this 50-50 view.
At the present time I do not know how long I will want to keep the poll open. At some point when I feel I have enough contributions, i will calculate and post the mean and standard deviation values.
ADDED May 29
I have decided to cancel this poll since there were NO votes cast during the two weeks since I posted the poll.
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