# Probability distribution: Estimate the size of the fox population

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In summary, a probability distribution is a mathematical function used to estimate the likelihood of different outcomes in a situation. It can be applied to estimate the size of animal populations, such as the fox population, by analyzing data and creating a probability distribution. The accuracy of the estimate depends on the quality and quantity of data used, and can be improved by increasing sample size, using advanced statistical methods, and considering other factors that may affect the population size. Probability distribution can also be used for other animal populations besides foxes, making it a valuable tool in conservation and management efforts.
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In a park , 200 foxes are tagged. In 100 sighting, 14 were tagged. Estimate the size of the fox population ?

This is how approached .

200 tagged : Population 14 tagged : 100
(200x100/14)= Estimated Population = 1,429

I wonder if this is right !

I get the same number. I would use the reasoning that approximately 14% of the total population was tagged, and 200 is 14% of about 1429 (rounded to the nearest integer). :)

Thx

## What is a probability distribution?

A probability distribution is a mathematical function that describes the likelihood of different outcomes occurring in a given situation. It shows how the total probability is distributed among all the possible outcomes.

## How is probability distribution used to estimate the size of a population?

A probability distribution can be used to estimate the size of a population by taking a random sample and using statistical methods to calculate the probability of each individual in the sample belonging to a certain population. This can then be extrapolated to estimate the size of the entire population.

## What factors can affect the accuracy of estimating the size of a population using probability distribution?

Some factors that can affect the accuracy of estimating the size of a population using probability distribution include the size and representativeness of the sample, the precision of the statistical methods used, and any underlying assumptions made about the population.

## What are some common probability distributions used in population estimation?

Some common probability distributions used in population estimation include the normal distribution, Poisson distribution, and binomial distribution. The choice of distribution depends on the specific characteristics and data of the population being studied.

## How can probability distribution be used to improve conservation efforts for a specific species?

Probability distribution can be used to estimate the size and distribution of a species population, which can inform conservation efforts such as setting population goals, identifying critical habitats, and monitoring changes in population over time. It can also be used to predict the impact of different conservation strategies on the population.

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