This is a bit of a strange question but why does it seem like probability of something happening always seems to be less than the actual probability? For example I am running a UK lottery simulator and you'll notice that the times I win is ALWAYS lower than what the probability says it should be, why is it never higher? Why does it never go higher but instead always lower? In all 3 you see that the times I win is lower than the expected times to win, never does it go higher. 1 in 57 is higher than 1 in 59 1 in 1,033 is higher than 1 in 1,062 1 in 55,492 is higher than 59,984 Is it just a coincidence that the actual outcomes are always lower than what is expected? I've run the program 3 times now for a length of 15 minutes and the actual wins are always lower, never higher, why is this? As the game plays on to infinity it will end up equalling out but in the early stages it just seems that the actual probability is always lower than the expected probability.