Setting is like this: I have 52cards of 4 shapes. that's 13 each. I take one card out and put it in a hat. now with 51card I draw 3 consecutive cards. It happens to be that I picked 3 diamonds. Now I want to find the probability of the card in the hat be a diamond. My friend said it should be 10/49 since 3 diamonds are out, but I disagree. I think those 3 diamonds with only one draw doesn't give enough information to favor other shapes than diamond at all, since the one card draw happened before any additional information, and 3 consecutive draws cannot affect previous draw in any way making the first draw independent of the second draw.