Probability of an event in n tries

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In summary, the probability for an event to happen at least one time in n successive tries, where the probability of the event is m/n in each try, can be calculated using the formula P=1-(1-p)^n. This can also be simplified as 1 - (1-m/n)^n, which is approximately 1 - e^-m for large n. The formula is simpler and removes the dependence on n.
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Delta2
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IF the probability for an event to happen in one try is m/n , what is the probability for the event to happen at least one time in n successive tries. In each try the probability of event is m/n.

I care mainly for the formula that I suppose it involves m and n but if you kind enough to provide the reasoning it is welcomed.
 
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If you use the probability ## p ##, the probability it won't happen in ## n ## tries is ## (1-p)^n ## and so the probability of one or more occurrences is ## P=1-(1-p)^n ##.
 
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I'm not sure if it is worth point this out, but for large n

##1 - (1-p)^n = 1 - (1-\frac{m}{n})^n \approx 1 - e^{-m}##
 
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Thanks both I couldn't imagine it was so simple, I was thinking it the hard way (computing the probability for the event to appear exactly k times and then summing from k=1 to n). I also was thinking of a way to remove the dependence of n from the formula, so thanks @StoneTemplePython too.
 
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1. What is the formula for calculating the probability of an event in n tries?

The formula for calculating the probability of an event in n tries is: P(event) = 1 - (1 - p)^n, where p is the probability of the event occurring in one try.

2. How do you interpret the probability of an event in n tries?

The probability of an event in n tries represents the likelihood of the event occurring at least once within n tries. This means that in n repeated trials, there is a P(event) chance that the event will happen at least once.

3. Can the probability of an event in n tries be greater than 1?

No, the probability of an event in n tries cannot be greater than 1. This is because a probability represents a value between 0 and 1, where 0 means the event is impossible and 1 means the event is certain to occur. Therefore, the probability cannot exceed the upper limit of 1.

4. How does the number of tries affect the probability of an event?

The number of tries, n, directly affects the probability of an event. As n increases, the probability of the event occurring at least once also increases. This is because with more tries, there are more opportunities for the event to happen.

5. Can the probability of an event in n tries be negative?

No, the probability of an event in n tries cannot be negative. As mentioned earlier, a probability represents a value between 0 and 1. Therefore, a negative probability is not a valid concept in this context.

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