Probability of future event as predicted by laws of nature

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SUMMARY

The probability of a sunrise occurring tomorrow is established as 1.000000, indicating certainty based on natural laws. However, the discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying sample space and the conditions that contribute to this probability. It suggests that while the probability appears absolute, factors such as the existence of alternate universes and specific experimental conditions (e.g., being at the poles) could influence this certainty. The conversation highlights the need for clarity in probability calculations and the significance of context in interpreting results.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of basic probability concepts
  • Familiarity with sample space and event definitions
  • Knowledge of experimental design and replication
  • Awareness of philosophical implications of probability in natural laws
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  • Explore advanced probability theory and its applications in real-world scenarios
  • Research the concept of multiverse theory and its implications on probability
  • Study the effects of extreme conditions on natural phenomena, such as polar environments
  • Investigate the philosophical debates surrounding determinism and randomness in nature
USEFUL FOR

This discussion is beneficial for mathematicians, physicists, philosophers, and anyone interested in the intersection of probability theory and natural laws, particularly in contexts involving certainty and uncertainty in predictions.

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TL;DR
every sure event like sunrise has probability of one
does the sample space of this kind of sure event contain only one event?
 
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The probability of a sunrise tomorrow is 1.000000.
In general, you would need to be more specific about how you got your number. But in a case like that, "1" will do.
 
Yes, until that day when the Sun fails to rise.
 
FactChecker said:
Yes, until that day when the Sun fails to rise.
And that's when the you need to get into exactly what's in the denominator of your probability calculation. For example, if you made 10,000 perfect copies of the universe and allowed each one to run 24 hours, then you might use sunrise_successes/10,000 as your probability. But you would still have to explain why you didn't get the same result from all 10,000. And, of course, directions to the nearest successful universe would also be handy.
 
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.Scott said:
The probability of a sunrise tomorrow is 1.000000.
An experimenter camped out at the north or south pole might disagree.
 
jbriggs444 said:
An experimenter camped out at the north or south pole might disagree.
The OP's from India - and he's not the guy who says that except for one night, he's never played poker before.
 

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