High School Probability of future event as predicted by laws of nature

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The probability of a sunrise tomorrow is considered to be 1.000000, indicating certainty based on natural laws. However, discussions arise about the need for specificity in probability calculations, particularly regarding the sample space and the denominator used in calculations. Theoretical scenarios, such as creating multiple copies of the universe to observe outcomes, highlight the complexities involved in determining probabilities. Additionally, unique circumstances, like an experimenter at the poles, could challenge the assumption of certainty. Overall, while the probability of a sunrise is deemed absolute, the underlying calculations and assumptions warrant careful consideration.
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every sure event like sunrise has probability of one
does the sample space of this kind of sure event contain only one event?
 
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The probability of a sunrise tomorrow is 1.000000.
In general, you would need to be more specific about how you got your number. But in a case like that, "1" will do.
 
Yes, until that day when the Sun fails to rise.
 
FactChecker said:
Yes, until that day when the Sun fails to rise.
And that's when the you need to get into exactly what's in the denominator of your probability calculation. For example, if you made 10,000 perfect copies of the universe and allowed each one to run 24 hours, then you might use sunrise_successes/10,000 as your probability. But you would still have to explain why you didn't get the same result from all 10,000. And, of course, directions to the nearest successful universe would also be handy.
 
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.Scott said:
The probability of a sunrise tomorrow is 1.000000.
An experimenter camped out at the north or south pole might disagree.
 
jbriggs444 said:
An experimenter camped out at the north or south pole might disagree.
The OP's from India - and he's not the guy who says that except for one night, he's never played poker before.
 

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