Probability of future event as predicted by laws of nature

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    Future Probability
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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the concept of probability in relation to future events, specifically using the example of the probability of a sunrise occurring tomorrow. Participants explore the implications of defining probabilities for seemingly certain events and the nuances involved in such calculations.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Debate/contested, Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants assert that the probability of a sunrise tomorrow can be considered as 1.000000, suggesting a high degree of certainty.
  • Others challenge this by pointing out that such certainty is conditional and could be disrupted by unforeseen events, such as the Sun failing to rise.
  • One participant introduces a hypothetical scenario involving creating multiple copies of the universe to illustrate the complexities of calculating probabilities and the need for clarity regarding the denominator in such calculations.
  • Another participant notes that the context of the observer, such as being at the North or South Pole, could affect the interpretation of the probability of a sunrise.
  • There is a mention of the original poster's location, which may influence their perspective on the discussion.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus; multiple competing views remain regarding the interpretation of probability in this context and the factors that influence it.

Contextual Notes

The discussion highlights limitations in defining probabilities for certain events, including the dependence on specific conditions and the assumptions underlying the calculations presented.

shivakumar
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TL;DR
every sure event like sunrise has probability of one
does the sample space of this kind of sure event contain only one event?
 
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The probability of a sunrise tomorrow is 1.000000.
In general, you would need to be more specific about how you got your number. But in a case like that, "1" will do.
 
Yes, until that day when the Sun fails to rise.
 
FactChecker said:
Yes, until that day when the Sun fails to rise.
And that's when the you need to get into exactly what's in the denominator of your probability calculation. For example, if you made 10,000 perfect copies of the universe and allowed each one to run 24 hours, then you might use sunrise_successes/10,000 as your probability. But you would still have to explain why you didn't get the same result from all 10,000. And, of course, directions to the nearest successful universe would also be handy.
 
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.Scott said:
The probability of a sunrise tomorrow is 1.000000.
An experimenter camped out at the north or south pole might disagree.
 
jbriggs444 said:
An experimenter camped out at the north or south pole might disagree.
The OP's from India - and he's not the guy who says that except for one night, he's never played poker before.
 

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