Probability of Getting Red at Least Once in Two Spins of a Wheel with 8 Colors

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The discussion revolves around calculating the probability of landing on red at least once when spinning a wheel with eight colors, including red, twice. Participants explore various probability formulas, initially struggling to arrive at the correct answer of approximately 0.234. Key points include recognizing that the total outcomes can be categorized into four scenarios: RR, RN, NR, and NN, with only three being favorable for at least one red. The conversation emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between probabilities of exact outcomes versus at least one occurrence, leading to the realization that the correct approach involves summing the probabilities of the favorable scenarios. Ultimately, the participants clarify their understanding of probability concepts, particularly in the context of independent events.
  • #31
So.. you'd have to multiply the 'no red x one red' with 'all' to make it a whole division(sp?)

Why I'm really thinking this way I'm not totally sure.
 
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  • #32
It's one red x all colours.

Why it's the right answer presents a difficulty :)
 
  • #33
But I'm thinking as above: " all is the possible and the rest is the probable(3). That would make perfect sense(?) uhm. It's as if you make a division into a sentence. O_o you'd have to multiply the 'no red x one red' with 'all' to make it a whole division "
 
  • #34
(1/8)(8/8) + (7/8)(1/8)

Why is the 1(8/8) at just one side?.. Because it doesn't have to be more of it? I'm a little confused at it's presentation. How do I transform it from that, to ((1/8) + (7/8)(1/8)(probable)) / (8/8/(possible))
 
  • #35
But that woulnd't make sense above cause then 8/8 is multiplied into both factors..
 
  • #36
Well approximately it's right because you have all the 3 spins and the probable and possible. But.. ah yes, it doesn't matter of course that you muliply the 8/8 into it because anything muliplied by 1 doesn't change.
 
  • #37
AND you get the possble into it also. Are we sure this is probability and not magic? *laughs*


But shoudn't I as I think, putting it into that / ? So I get the 8/8 at the bottom as the possible

And also I'm maybe a little confused as to how you would get to the answer from the other way around.
 
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  • #38
pace said:
So.. you'd have to multiply the 'no red x one red' with 'all' to make it a whole division(sp?)

Why I'm really thinking this way I'm not totally sure.

I can tell from the fact you keep writing (and presumably thinking) "one red" and "no red" that you haven't grasped the basics of spinning this wheel.

When you spin the wheel - just once - you get a colour, one colour - it's not like, say, pulling three beads out of a bag.

It's red or yellow or blue or …

But there will only be one colour.

The question is, what is that one colour?

Answer: it's either red or not-red.

Then you spin a second time, and again it's either red or not-red.

So when you describe (1/8)(8/8) + (7/8)(1/8), each of the "/8"s describe the result of one spin.

… possible … probable …

"possible" and "probable" are not words we use in mathematics - they don't mean anything!

Only "probability"! :smile:

It's one red x all colours.

You must specify which spin(s) you're talking about.

Try again, specifying the spin. :smile:
 
  • #39
I'm not sure how you say in english, but here(norway) it's G/M(gunstige(all the probable(or wanted)/mulige(all the possible outcomes), and use it alot(?) through probability.
 
  • #40
Yes, we do the same in English, as in "It's probable it will rain" or "It's possible I will win the lottery" - but not in mathematics!

(btw, I'm going out in a few minutes, so if you want another try, you'd better be quick … :smile:)
 
  • #41
heh, pulling out balls from a bag was my previous test.
I'm having these sentences in my mind, but they fall out again fast.

I must specify... one red(R) x all(=NN)or:(8/8) , (I have these RN NN things a lot in my mind here, lol) ? hm...
 
  • #42
pace said:
heh, pulling out balls from a bag was my previous test.
I'm having these sentences in my mind, but they fall out again fast.

Ah, that explains a lot!

You must get those balls out of your mind, and put them somewhere more appropriate! :smile:

I must specify... one red(R) x all(=NN)or:(8/8) , (I have these RN NN things a lot in my mind here, lol) ? hm...

No, it's the-first-spin-is-red-and-the-second-spin-can-be-anything. :smile:

Now what is (7/8)(1/8)?
 
  • #43
Riight, I'll get some balls. hehehe.

No I mean.. directly translated it's favorable/those that might happen.

They are strange words to me. Uh. (Edit: Or it's like I see the math and don't see the math. Strange)
 
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  • #44
can be anything... wow. (Edit: Yeah well that is I suppose my "those that might happen")

(7/8)(1/8) is first-spin-no-red x second-spin-one-red
 
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  • #45
I think I liked can-be-anything definition better.

hm, the 7/8 is a bit confusing to me. I'm abit visual and thinking 7/8 which is 'such a big number' is nothing falls unatural, but this is probably(whaha what a pun) quite normal.
 
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  • #46
pace said:
(7/8)(1/8) is no red x one red

Well, it's the-first-spin-is-not-red-and-the-second-spin-is-red.

So (1/8)(8/8) + (7/8)(1/8) is the probability of:
the-first-spin-is-red-and-the-second-spin-can-be-anything OR the-first-spin-is-not-red-and-the-second-spin-is-red.

Now, why is that the right answer? :smile:
 
  • #47
Good question.

Because we have all the variables? Not enough?! Because..... we have two spins, divided by a +.
First shows the probability-of-one red and probability-of-can-be-everything(uh), the second of probability-of-one-red and probability-of-one-red. We have all the possibilities of at least one red and we're all happy and comfortable.. or.

wow, how did all those sentences come all at once..


But I want the favorable/'can-be-anything' equotation, whaaaa.
 
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  • #48
Nearly there …

pace said:
Because we have all the variables?

That doesn't mean anything! :frown:

The original question was: What is the probability that the outcome will give the colour red at least once.

So we're looking for red-at-least-once.

So why is
red-at-least-once​
the same as
the-first-spin-is-red-and-the-second-spin-can-be-anything OR the-first-spin-is-not-red-and-the-second-spin-is-red?​
 
  • #49
Hm, because ...?

I have to go to work. I'll take little look into it before I reply again! This is fun and helpful.
 
  • #50
No, I was just kidding around when I said just the variables. I always hope I'm good at humour but I'm not.

My thought went as above(in case you haven't seen it):

we have two spins, divided by a +.
First shows the probability-of-one red and probability-of-can-be-everything(uh), the second of probability-of-one-red and probability-of-one-red. We have all the possibilities of at least one red.. Maybe I'm worse at this since it's language and not mathematics O_o
 
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  • #51
Or "Red at least once means 3 out of 4 outcomes. the 3 outcomes is defined by 'first spin is red', "third spin is not red", "fourth spin is red", and last as 'can be anything'" (Taking out my favorable/can-be-anything.

uh, something like that? Closer? Grr, I don't like getting math not to work, I get so focused on it.
 
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