Probability of Machine A After Time: 1% Every 5 Days

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on calculating the failure probability of Machine A, which is stated to be 10% every 10 days. Participants clarify that this translates to a failure probability of 1% every 5 days, based on a straightforward division of the 10-day failure rate. However, using an exponential decay model, the survival probability after 10 days is 90%, leading to a calculated survival probability of approximately 95% after 5 days, resulting in a failure probability of about 5%. This highlights the importance of model selection in probability calculations.

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DarkFalz
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Hello,

i've been wondering about the following. If only this is information is given:

"each 10 days, the probability that machine A fails is 10%, after which the machine A receives
maintenance"

is it correct to say that each 5 days the probability is 10%/10= 1%?
 
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Assuming an exponential model for decay (typical for problems of this nature), the probability for survival after 10 days is .9 (90%), so the probability after 5 days is √.9 ~ .95, so the failure probability would be ~ .05 (5%).
 

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