Probability Question Without Knowing the Distribution

[Drewau2005]

Hello

Thank you to the contributors on this forum.
My question is not a homework question but rather concerns an idea I have been thinking of for some time.

Suppose there are two parties to an agreement whereby one party agrees to pay the other party a sum of money, should an asset not appreciate in a value by a percetage (say 5%) over a period of time (say 2 years).

How do you work out the probability of the asset increasing value by 5% ?

Many thanks in advance

Drew

 

[robert Ihnot]

Wouldn't it have something to do with what is the asset? And even then you would have to be pretty good to figure that--expecially if you had to also make a profit.