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Probability related to an Appointment Scheduling Simulation

  1. Jan 5, 2007 #1
    I am trying to simulate the performance of a web booking/scheduling system and although there are many features of this problem that intrigue me the one currently giving me fits is demonstrated below.

    Assume that a dentist has 8 appointments per day and that each appointment time is equally desireable from the perspective of the patient.

    Assume that 3 dentists working together as a group each have appointments via the traditional call and book method averaging 6 of the 8 daily appointment slots. In other words, some days they have more or less than 6 bookings but in the aggregrate they each have 6 bookings per day.

    Then using a web based (last-minute/day-before) self-booking system where a prospective client picks 3 preferred time slots what is the probability that one of those 3 time slots would be available with at least 1 dentist? With 2 dentists? How can one solve this and similar problems?

    Thanks,
    Bernie
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Jan 5, 2007 #2
    Since the distribution is not given,a fair assumption is to take exactly 6 bookings that day
    Let us say he books 1,2,3 as his time slot(of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
    We first compute the probability that all the 3 time-slots are filled with all the dentists
    Pr(of the 6 appointments,3 appointments fall in 1,2,3 for 1 dentist)=5C3/8C3=P(slots are filled for dentist 1)=5/28
    So the probability that the slots are filled for all the dentists=(5/28)^3=
    So the probability that atleast 1 slot is empty = 1-(5/28)^3
    0.9943

    For it to be available with 2 dentists=1-(5/28)^3-3C1*(5/28)^2*(23/28)
    =0.9157
     
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