Projected supply of pandemic influenza vaccine sharply increases

[Moridin]

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2007/pr60/en/index.html

23 OCTOBER 2007 | GENEVA -- Recent scientific advances and increased vaccine manufacturing capacity have prompted experts to increase their projections of how many pandemic influenza vaccine courses can be made available in the coming years.

Last spring, the World Health Organization (WHO) and vaccine manufacturers said that about 100 million courses of pandemic influenza vaccine based on the H5N1 avian influenza strain could be produced immediately with standard technology. Experts now anticipate that global production capacity will rise to 4.5 billion pandemic immunization courses per year in 2010.

 

[jim mcnamara]

Um, I don't mean to sound pessimistic, but my understanding of influenza vaccines is that:
1. they are not 100% effective
2. they reduce mortality, but do not eliminate it
3. they reduce disease retransmission in populations with high immunization rates.

So, if we are actually able to immunize 4.5B humans 8 weeks before a flu pandemic hits, then we lose (based on 1919 flu data) 10% of 50 million deaths instead of 50 million.

Which is a big win.

But my q's:

1. how do we handle the "if" the clause. Ever been to Pakistan or the "Violencia" sections of Peru? There are going to be huge populations that will never get the vaccine.

2. And if all my neighbors are Sante FE NM kooks, and decide not to get shots, I'm going to be barraged by such a high titer of virsues that I'll get sick anyway.

Both of these are social and legal questions, not really scientific, but we live in a world of human beings... and you know how well Science, Politics, and Religion mix.