Prove that the tail of this distribution goes to zero

In summary, the theorem states that the limit of the probability of a random variable being greater than or equal to a certain value approaches zero as that value approaches infinity. The proof uses Heine's definition of limit and a monotonically increasing sequence to show this. The equation used in the proof is derived from the law of continuity of probability.
  • #1
CGandC
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Theorem: Let ## X ## be a random variable. Then ## \lim_{s \to \infty} P( |X| \geq s ) =0 ##

Proof from teacher assistant's notes: We'll show first that ## \lim_{s \to \infty} P( X \geq s ) =0 ## and ## \lim_{s \to \infty} P( X \leq -s ) =0 ##:

Let ## (s_n)_{n=1}^\infty ## be a monotonically increasing sequence with ## \lim_{ n \to \infty } s_n = \infty ##. The sequences ## \{ X \geq s_n \}_{n=1}^\infty ## and ## \{ X \leq -s_n \}_{n=1}^\infty ## are decreasing sequences with zero intersection:

##\bigcap_{n=1}^{\infty}\left\{X \leq-s_n\right\} = \bigcap_{n=1}^{\infty}\left\{X \geq s_n\right\} = \emptyset ##,
hence from continuity of probability:

##
\begin{aligned}
&0=\mathbb{P}(\emptyset)=\mathbb{P}\left(\bigcap_{n=1}^{\infty}\left\{X \geq s_n\right\}\right)=\lim _{n \rightarrow \infty} \mathbb{P}\left(X \geq s_n\right) \\
&0=\mathbb{P}(\emptyset)=\mathbb{P}\left(\bigcap_{n=1}^{\infty}\left\{X \leq-s_n\right\}\right)=\lim _{n \rightarrow \infty} \mathbb{P}\left(X \leq-s_n\right)
\end{aligned}
##

Hence we'll deduce:

##
\lim _{s \rightarrow \infty} \mathbb{P}(|X| \geq s)=\lim _{s \rightarrow \infty}(\mathbb{P}(X \geq s)+\mathbb{P}(X \leq-s))=0
##
and we're finished.Questions:
1. I understand that the proof above is according to Heine's definition of limit, but if so I don't understand why we took ## (s_n)_{n=1}^\infty ## to be a monotonically increasing sequence and not an arbitrary sequence? ( we'd also like to prove for sequences that do go to infinity but are not necessarily monotonically increasing ).
2. Why does the equation ## \mathbb{P}\left(\bigcap_{n=1}^{\infty}\left\{X \geq s_n\right\}\right)=\lim _{n \rightarrow \infty} \mathbb{P}\left(X \geq s_n\right) ## hold? how did we go from the left side to the right side?Thanks in advance for any help!
 
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  • #2
CGandC said:
Questions:
1. I understand that the proof above is according to Heine's definition of limit, but if so I don't understand why we took ## (s_n)_{n=1}^\infty ## to be a monotonically increasing sequence and not an arbitrary sequence? ( we'd also like to prove for sequences that do go to infinity but are not necessarily monotonicallyincreasing ).

2. Why does the equation ## \mathbb{P}\left(\bigcap_{n=1}^{\infty}\left\{X \geq s_n\right\}\right)=\lim _{n \rightarrow \infty} \mathbb{P}\left(X \geq s_n\right) ## hold? how did we go from the left side to the right side?

What happens if [itex]s_n[/itex] is not necessarily strictly increasing? Since the minimum of an intersection is the maximum of the minima, we have [tex]
\bigcap_{n=1}^N \{X \geq s_n\} = \{X \geq \max_{1 \leq n \leq N} s_n\}.[/tex] Define [tex]
M_N = \max_{1 \leq n \leq N} s_n.[/tex] Then [itex]M_n[/itex] is an increasing sequence with [itex]M_n \to \infty[/itex]. Then [tex]
\begin{split}
\mathbb{P}\left( \bigcap_{n=1}^\infty \{X > s_n\}\right) &= \lim_{N \to \infty} \mathbb{P}\left(\bigcap_{n=1}^N \{X \geq s_n\}\right) \\
&= \lim_{N \to \infty} \mathbb{P}(\{X \geq M_N\}).\end{split}[/tex]
 
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  • #3
Thanks alot! everything's crystal clear now!

I also found an answer to my second question which stems from the law of continuity of probability which says the following ( in case anyone's interested ):
Let there be a monotonically decreasing sequence of events ## A_1 \supseteq A_2 \supseteq ... ## in probability space ## ( \Omega , \mathbb{P} ) ##. Then: ## \mathbb{P}\left( \bigcap_{n=1}^\infty A_n \right) = \lim_{n \to \infty } \mathbb{P}( A_n) ##
 

1. How do you prove that the tail of a distribution goes to zero?

To prove that the tail of a distribution goes to zero, you would need to use mathematical techniques such as integration or limit theorems. These methods involve analyzing the behavior of the distribution at the extreme ends and showing that it approaches zero as the values get larger or smaller.

2. Why is it important to prove that the tail of a distribution goes to zero?

Proving that the tail of a distribution goes to zero is important because it helps us understand the behavior of the distribution at the extreme ends. It can also provide insights into the overall shape and characteristics of the distribution, which is crucial in many scientific fields such as statistics, economics, and physics.

3. What does it mean when the tail of a distribution goes to zero?

When the tail of a distribution goes to zero, it means that the probability of observing extreme values becomes increasingly small as the values get larger or smaller. This indicates that the distribution is becoming more concentrated around the mean or median, and the chances of observing extreme values are decreasing.

4. Can you prove that the tail of a distribution goes to zero for any type of distribution?

Yes, it is possible to prove that the tail of a distribution goes to zero for any type of distribution. However, the specific methods and techniques used may vary depending on the characteristics of the distribution, such as its shape, skewness, and kurtosis.

5. Are there any limitations to proving that the tail of a distribution goes to zero?

Yes, there are limitations to proving that the tail of a distribution goes to zero. Some distributions, such as heavy-tailed distributions, may not have a well-defined tail or may have a tail that does not go to zero. In these cases, alternative methods may be needed to analyze the behavior at the extreme ends of the distribution.

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