Republicans no longer a viable party?

[turbo]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304223804576446493806299046.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Please don't talk sense. It enrages the trolls.

 

[ParticleGrl]

Are you certain about this?

The real rate for 5 year treasuries is NEGATIVE. Think about that- its CHEAPER to borrow money than to pay cash upfront. My question is- why aren't we exploiting this to rebuild some of our crumbling infrastructure?

 

[mheslep]

Because there is no free lunch. There is only so much money to borrow, and that which the government borrows, even if cheaply done, can not be borrowed to fund the private sector, that is, the government is crowding out the private sector.

 

[ParticleGrl]

Because there is no free lunch. There is only so much money to borrow, and that which the government borrows, even if cheaply done, can not be borrowed to fund the private sector, that is, the government is crowding out the private sector.

We don't have a dearth of available cash-on-hand. Companies are sitting on billions in cash right now that they aren't investing in anything. How exactly is this crowding out supposed to be happening? The normal story with crowding out involves higher interest rates- which is an important part of the story. Right now, any investment with a positive real rate is BETTER than a 5 year treasury. What is getting crowded out?

Again, the demand for treasuries is so high that the real interest rates on five years are actually negative- this is not exactly a sweet deal for the lender. Also, rebuilding crumbling infrastructure can't help but be an obvious boon to the economy- putting idle construction resources to work, while lowering the cost of doing business for private firms.

And finally, much of the purchase of treasuries are foreign governments (in particular China, which has been using treasuries to control the renminbi)- IF China doubled its holdings of US treasuries, how does US competitiveness suffer?

EDIT: Bear in mind, crowding out is generally important in economies at or near full capacity. The US has above 9% unemployment.

 

[mheslep]

We don't have a dearth of available cash-on-hand. Companies are sitting on billions in cash right now that they aren't investing in anything. How exactly is this crowding out supposed to be happening? The normal story with crowding out involves higher interest rates- which is an important part of the story. Right now, any investment with a positive real rate is BETTER than a 5 year treasury. What is getting crowded out? ...

Right, Microsoft, GM, etc are not being crowded out, the smaller businesses and private investors are. They are not sitting on large sums of cash and can't get it from the banks, who have it invested largely in T Bills.

“Approximately a third of the decline in capital investment as a share of cash flow is directly attributable to the crowding out by the U.S. Treasury,” borrowing the savings of Americans ahead of all other borrowers, Greenspan told CNBC in an interview.

“Those numbers are significant,” Greenspan said. The same is happening in the United Kingdom, but “so far, it’s most dominant in the United States.”...

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Greenspan-Treasury-Crowding-Out/2010/12/03/id/378841?s=al&promo_code=B3B7-1

Edit: more ...

...Greenspan noted that major corporations like Microsoft and I.B.M. are not affected by crowding out in a deficit of this size—the deficit would have to increase two-fold to affect such major entities. The ‘who is being affected’ then, said Greenspan, “are ones which are known to be B-rated corporations. Where the shortfall is in investment is very largely in small businesses and in construction.”

I can attest the commercial construction business in the US has completely crashed in many places.

 

[SixNein]

Did you see the spending 2009-2011 increases via federalbudget.com shown graphically in post #221 by T2Glenn?
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3404244&postcount=221

Yes I seen it. The argument is about why short-term deficit (the last 2 years) is going up. My position is that its primarily due to the recession. Both loss of revenue and increase demand for safety net programs have contributed to it. Others seem to take the position that its all Obama's doing.

 

[mheslep]

Yes I seen it. The argument is about why short-term deficit (the last 2 years) is going up. My position is that its primarily due to the recession. Both loss of revenue and increase demand for safety net programs have contributed to it. Others seem to take the position that its all Obama's doing.

The President now has the responsibility for the anemic economy in July 2011, nearly four years after the beginning of the recession. The President has the responsibility for not only doing nothing about reining in the entitlement programs, but actively blocking and mocking ideas on the table.

 

[ParticleGrl]

Right, Microsoft, GM, etc are not being crowded out, the smaller businesses and private investors are. They are not sitting on large sums of cash and can't get it from the banks, who have it invested largely in T Bills.

This is nonsense. Interest rates on treasuries are LOW, not high. What is the mechanism for crowding out? Read your economics text- the way crowding out works is that interest rates go up, and certain capital investments aren't profitable. Right now, rates are rock bottom.

The story of crowding out doesn't make sense right now. If you buy a treasury right now, you LOSE money. Banks should be clamoring for any investment that ISN'T a treasury.

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Greenspan-Treasury-Crowding-Out/2010/12/03/id/378841?s=al&promo_code=B3B7-1

Greenspan flat out made-up a number. He "thinks" its high, and he "supposes" its true. The actual data is that banks have excessive reserves- their money isn't tied up in treasuries, its not tied up at all. They are sitting on loanable cash.

I can attest the commercial construction business in the US has completely crashed in many places.

Which may be true, but it isn't related to crowding out. Interest rates (again) are absolute rock bottom.

I don't have data on hand, but my guess is (with 9% unemployment) there isn't as much demand, so companies have no reason to expand.

 

[edward]

Why were the Repubicans so afraid of a budget surplus in 2001??[unacceptable source deleted]

 

[mheslep]

This is nonsense. Interest rates on treasuries are LOW, not high. What is the mechanism for crowding out? Read your economics text- the way crowding out works is that interest rates go up, and certain capital investments aren't profitable. Right now, rates are rock bottom.

The story of crowding out doesn't make sense right now. If you buy a treasury right now, you LOSE money. Banks should be clamoring for any investment that ISN'T a treasury.

Not if you are a major bank and can borrow from the Fed at http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm" , and can then turn around and buy T Bills at 3%.

Greenspan flat out made-up a number. He "thinks" its high, and he "supposes" its true.

The former federal reserve chairman say's there's crowding out, a lot of it. If you have a counter reference I'd like to see it, as I'm not interested in your opinion of Greenspan.

The actual data is that banks have excessive reserves- their money isn't tied up in treasuries, its not tied up at all. They are sitting on loanable cash.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/11/09/banks-choosing-treasury-bonds-over-loans/"

According to the Federal Reserve’s latest weekly measure of bank assets and liabilities, released every Friday, banks held 1.37 trillion of Treasury and Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac debt securities at the end of October and $1.37 trillion of commercial and industrial loans

Which may be true, but it isn't related to crowding out. Interest rates (again) are absolute rock bottom.

Really? For small businesses and investors, you know this how? Because you read the prime rate and just know that ACME Construction can borrow at prime plus one?

 

[mege]

SixNein and mheslep I think are debating a moot point regarding how things get budgeted (wrt to the deficit graph). Since the numbers there are total debt owed by the government, how the money is allocated/budgeted doesn't really matter. That is showing how our spending has increased passed our revenues and the last few years that difference has spiked significantly. No matter how the money comes in or goes out - that difference is too great, and that's the point which is being lost in the discussion about budgetary spending.

@ParticleGrl - How much of the 'crumbling infrastructure' is actually federal property? Interstates are mostly funded by fuel tax from various levels (shared local/federal) and water/utility systems are managed locally. Unless you want to allow state/county/city governments to start 'charging' to the treasury - how is this going to happen? Another stimulus? How's that high-speed railway coming along? I think more people need to be looking towards their local governments for these issues. Far too many put all issues on the federal government's shoulders without regard for whom the bill really should be going to (including local politicians).

 

[edward]

mheslep

The banks aren't loaning to small businesses.

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100325/BIZ/703259908/1005



mege stated,

I think more people need to be looking towards their local governments for these issues. Far too many put all issues on the federal government's shoulders without regard for whom the bill really should be going to (including local politicians).

Right now it is difficult to find a state or local government that isn't in the dumper financially.

 

[ParticleGrl]

Not if you are a major bank and can borrow from the Fed at 0.00000000001%, and can then turn around and buy T Bills at 3%.

But literally ANY other investment the bank could make is BETTER. Are you really arguing that treasuries (with their negative real rate) are a good buy? In fact, SUCH a good buy that they are being chosen over other investments?

The former federal reserve chairman say's there's crowding out, a lot of it. If you have a counter reference I'd like to see it, as I'm not interested in your opinion of Greenspan.

In the article, Greenspan reference no data. He actually says things like "I can't prove it", "I suspect", etc. He doesn't actually reference any data. Here is a nobel laureate in economics addressing just this crowding out issue in May (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/the-doctrine-of-immaculate-crowding-out/). The blog post has a chart of corporate AAA and BBBs. Rates are low.

He is making my exact point (and the point anyone who actually passed econ 101 should also be making) government distorts the market BY CHANGING INCENTIVES. It distorts pricing. Crowding out is specifically distortions of the interest rate from excessive borrowing. If the interest rate is very low, then what is the mechanism for crowding out?

Really? For small businesses and investors, you know this how? Because you read the prime rate and just know that ACME Construction can borrow at prime plus one?

Because rates are low, across the board. See AAA and BBB yields above. Every piece of data that exists suggests rates are very, very low.

If companies are having trouble getting loans its not because the banks money is tied up in treasuries, lots of banks haves excess reserves right now. Maybe its the passage of Dodd-Frank (so called "regime uncertainty"), or maybe they're currently very risk-averse, or maybe the bank's long term outlook on various small business is grim (and so they judge the loan very risky). However, its not because treasuries are an attractive investment, because they aren't.

Banks Choosing Treasury Bonds Over Lending...

This article is from 2009. It is now 2011. Things change. In particularly, treasury rates were MUCH, MUCH higher due to "the flight to quality" that happened after the panic. The banking system more or less froze up temporarily.

How much of the 'crumbling infrastructure' is actually federal property? Interstates are mostly funded by fuel tax from various levels (shared local/federal) and water/utility systems are managed locally. Unless you want to allow state/county/city governments to start 'charging' to the treasury - how is this going to happen? Another stimulus?

Why not another stimulus? Maybe one specifically focused on upgrading parts of the power grid, US airports, etc. There are certainly parts of the country where high-speed rail would actually be useful once built, why not build it? Right now, the government can borrow money essentially for better than free, why not use that ability? Also, I wouldn't put crumbling infrastructure in quotes- ever look at the report card on America's infrastructure?

 

[mheslep]

... However, its not because treasuries are an attractive investment, because they aren't.



This article is from 2009. It is now 2011. Things change. In particularly, treasury rates were MUCH, MUCH higher due to "the flight to quality" that happened after the panic. The banking system more or less froze up temporarily.

In 2009? What are you talking about? Look, http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/Historic-LongTerm-Rate-Data-Visualization.aspx" , while the Fed funds rate and interbank rates are ~0.nothing.

 

[mheslep]

... If the interest rate is very low, then what is the mechanism for crowding out?
...
Because rates are low, across the board. See AAA and BBB yields above. Every piece of data that exists suggests rates are very, very low.

Across the board? No. Those are low ratings for commercial paper to corporations, likely still huge, not small businesses.
"[URL
As to why there's crowding out:[/URL]

...In mid-2011, the supply of ordinary bank credit to firms and households continues to fall from what it had been in mid-2008. Although large corporate enterprises again have access to bond and equity financing, bank credit is the principal source of finance for working capital for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) enabling them to purchase labor and other supplies.
...
Why should zero interest rates be causing a credit constraint? After all, conventional thinking has it that the lower the interest rate the better credit can expand. But this is only true when interest rates—particularly interbank interest rates—are comfortably above zero. Banks with good retail lending opportunities typically lend by opening credit lines to nonbank customers. But these credit lines are open-ended in the sense that the commercial borrower can choose when—and by how much—he will actually draw on his credit line. This creates uncertainty for the bank in not knowing what its future cash positions will be. An illiquid bank could be in trouble if its customers simultaneously decided to draw down their credit lines

If the retail bank has easy access to the wholesale interbank market, its liquidity is much improved. To cover unexpected liquidity shortfalls, it can borrow from banks with excess reserves with little or no credit checks. But if the prevailing interbank lending rate is close to zero (as it is now), then large banks with surplus reserves become loath to part with them for a derisory yield. And smaller banks, which collectively are the biggest lenders to SMEs, cannot easily bid for funds at an interest rate significantly above the prevailing interbank rate without inadvertently signaling that they might be in trouble. Indeed, counterparty risk in smaller banks remains substantial as almost 50 have failed so far this year.
...

 

[mheslep]

mheslep

The banks aren't loaning to small businesses.

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100325/BIZ/703259908/1005

Thanks, yes I know.

 

[ParticleGrl]

In 2009? What are you talking about? Look, ten year T's were 4%, now they are 3%, while the Fed funds rate and interbank rates are ~0.nothing.

5 year treasuries dropped from near 3% to around 1%, and 5 years is what I've been consistently discussing.

The fed funds rate and interbank rates don't have much to do with the deficit, so why even bring them up?

As to why there's crowding out..

Your article is NOT about crowding out. You are confusing different things. The argument that the article is making is that a low interbank rate makes it hard for small banks to get money from larger banks. This is related to the fed funds rate, but doesn't have much to do with the deficit. The US could have no deficit, but (if the argument is correct), the low interbank rate would still be squeezing small banks.

I'm not sure I buy the argument, I'll have to think about it more, but it is at least lucid. However, it isn't really related to the deficit, so its sort of tangential to what we've been discussing.

 

[mheslep]

5 year treasuries dropped from near 3% to around 1%, and 5 years is what I've been consistently discussing.

The fed funds rate and interbank rates don't have much to do with the deficit, so why even bring them up?

In answer to your question about why banks would be holding treasuries, and why they are not loosing money on them as you stated in 248.

Your article is NOT about crowding out. You are confusing different things. The argument that the article is making is that a low interbank rate makes it hard for small banks to get money from larger banks. This is related to the fed funds rate, but doesn't have much to do with the deficit. The US could have no deficit, but (if the argument is correct), the low interbank rate would still be squeezing small banks.

McKinnon demonstrates how small investment/borrowing is failing despite low prime rates, which normally should not happen. The low Fed/interbank rates makes the purchase of T bills possible, especially in a risky environment, i.e. federal borrowing is indeed crowding out retail borrowing. If the large borrowing for the deficit did not exist, the small banks would have no choice but to lend retail again to generate income.

 

[SixNein]

The President now has the responsibility for the anemic economy in July 2011, nearly four years after the beginning of the recession. The President has the responsibility for not only doing nothing about reining in the entitlement programs, but actively blocking and mocking ideas on the table.

He put entitlement programs on the table. Let's be honest, a deal could have been reached with trillions in spending cuts plus additional revenue from taxes. Ideologically, one party doesn't want tax increases, so the entire thing is being stalled. In addition to the above, presidents have been kicking the problem down the road for decades. So let's not pretend this problem has emerged with the election of Obama.

As far as the bad economy, did you expect the economy to recover from such a deep recession overnight with some of our global economic partners still in disarray?

 

[ParticleGrl]

In answer to your question about why banks would be holding treasuries, and why they are not loosing money on them as you stated in 248.

It was rhetorical, I was making the point that treasuries are a terrible investment right now, which goes against the general story of crowding out.

McKinnon demonstrates how small investment/borrowing is failing despite low prime rates, which normally should not happen. The low Fed/interbank rates makes the purchase of T bills possible, especially in a risky environment, i.e. federal borrowing is indeed crowding out retail borrowing. If the large borrowing for the deficit did not exist, the small banks would have no choice but to lend retail again to generate income.

McKinnon's argument has nothing to do with treasuries. You haven't read correctly. The argument is that small banks are illiquid because large banks aren't providing liquidity. McKinnon's argument only works if small banks don't have the money to loan anybody. I'm not entirely sure I buy it, but if debt overhang has hurt the liquidity of small banks, its plausible. But this story has NOTHING to do with crowding out. Its more about liquidity constraints in small banks. I'm not sure I buy McKinnon's story, but given the large debt overhang that could be hurting them, it seems plausible.

You want to turn it into a crowding out argument by insisting that the large banks are buying treasuries with their money, and implying that the TED spread is creating an incentive to buy treasuries. This doesn't hold up- the spread is a bit smaller than its historical norm. While LIBOR is certainly low, so are the treasury rates. Borrowing interbank to buy treasuries isn't any more profitable than normal.

 

[WhoWee]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304223804576446493806299046.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

From your link:
"Why Buying Treasurys Isn't As Crazy as It Might Seem"

I don't think your link supports your original post: my bold

"however, investors have been willing to gobble up US debt."

 

[WhoWee]

The real rate for 5 year treasuries is NEGATIVE. Think about that- its CHEAPER to borrow money than to pay cash upfront. My question is- why aren't we exploiting this to rebuild some of our crumbling infrastructure?

Do you mean the "shovel ready" projects - didn't the stimulus address those?

 

[WhoWee]

Why were the Repubicans so afraid of a budget surplus in 2001??


http://investmentwatchblog.com/how-the-republican%C2%ADs-are-conning-america/

Have we forgotten what happened to the economy after September 11, 2001?
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d02700r.pdf

 

[OmCheeto]

Why were the Repubicans so afraid of a budget surplus in 2001??

I asked the same thing a while back and got the following answer:

...

Once there was concern that there would not be enough low-risk paper around if the US government paid down its debt. I don't think that's a problem at present.

So assuming it is not (a proposition I would be glad to hear arguments on, either way), why would it be beneficial except in the short term for the US government to run large debts? I understand the "we must stop the Axis powers"-type emergency spending, as well as the Keynesian "we must pump money into the sagging economy"-type spending. But supposing that neither applies (surely not the former, and with good fortune not the latter, at least soon enough), I don't see why debt would be preferred.

Unfortunately, I don't know what "low-risk paper" is, nor why it's shortage would be bad.

Trying to figure out what it is from it's use in context is a bit difficult, as what some people called "low-risk paper", turned out to be a bit of a misnomer:

http://247wallst.com/2008/03/27/quants-gone-wil/"
Posted: March 27, 2008 at 7:51 pm

As the meltdown began, holders of CMOs/CDOs/SIVs realized they couldn’t measure the true value of this supposedly low-risk paper and quickly found their assets and liabilities mismatched with billions lost in the squeeze.

My guess is that it is similar to a low risk investment.


Having these acronyms spelled out doesn't help me any, but their initial popularity and current lack of popularity seems to say something:
CMO = Collateralized mortgage obligation (first created in 1983 by the investment banks Salomon Brothers and First Boston)
CDO = Collateralized debt obligation (The first CDO was issued in 1987 by bankers at now-defunct Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. ... Global investors began to stop funding CDOs in 2007, contributing to the collapse of certain structured investments held by major investment banks and the bankruptcy of several subprime lenders.)
SIV = Structured Investment Vehicles (Invented by Citigroup in 1988, SIV's were popular until the market crash of 2008.)
ref = wiki

ps. all bolding mine

pps. I know this doesn't seem to tie into why the Republicans may or may not be a viable party anymore, but I think it is a piece of the systemic puzzle of "what's destroying America?".

 

[Proton Soup]

it looks like the place to be now is investing in the federal reserve. member banks receive 6% on capital invested, and dividend payments are up significantly in the past few years. from table 11, dividend payments have nearly quadrupled in the past decade.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/annual-report/files/2010-annual-report.pdf

 

[SixNein]

From your link:
"Why Buying Treasurys Isn't As Crazy as It Might Seem"

I don't think your link supports your original post: my bold

"however, investors have been willing to gobble up US debt."

Did you bother reading the article or did you simply stop at its title?

 

[CAC1001]

Why not another stimulus? Maybe one specifically focused on upgrading parts of the power grid, US airports, etc. There are certainly parts of the country where high-speed rail would actually be useful once built, why not build it? Right now, the government can borrow money essentially for better than free, why not use that ability? Also, I wouldn't put crumbling infrastructure in quotes- ever look at the report card on America's infrastructure?

Because it likely wouldn't stimulate and would only drive the country deeper into debt. Every dollar of increased government spending must correspond to one less dollar of private-sector spending. Probably the most nortorious example is Japan which spent half their GDP trying stimulus and lots of infrastructure projects, with very anemic economic growth. Today they have the highest level of debt-to-GDP in the Western world (about 230%) and a AA bond rating. As for high-speed rail, that would take years. America isn't like China where they can just build it. There are much more stringent construction and materials standards here, issues of property and eminent domain, and also the environmental impact for either every acre or mile (I forget which) of the railroad would have to be assessed. It also likely would cost the state governments more as it would have to be subsidized. Even in the European countries where it is used, it is subsidized, with the lines that lose large amounts of money being closed down. Infrastructure itself also takes time, as one cannot just suddenly start spending a bunch of money on infrastructure.

That said, if fiscal stimulus was/is workable, in addition to infrastructure, I'd say one major area to gun up spending is on the national defense, as the military needs a lot of vehicles, equipment, and weapons replaced and upgraded, and also a lot of newer equipment might be simpler and thus cheaper to maintain, allowing a reduction in the defense budget in the future opposed to what it otherwise would need to be.

There's also the corruption issues. If one decided to gun up defense or infrastructure spending, there would probably be a major lack of accountability regarding how a lot of the money is spent and thus a lot spent on stuff it shouldn't be.

 

[CAC1001]

On the Republicans and spending during the Bush years, well President Bush and the Republicans decided to govern as big-government conservatives. They made no attempt whatsoever at being limited government conservatives.

 

[WhoWee]

Did you bother reading the article or did you simply stop at its title?

Your statement was not supported by your link.

 

[htf]

Outsider's View

I am German and when watching this spectacle I have to rub my eyes in disbelief. This completely destroys my picture of America! My picture of America was that the US politicians are all patriots and at the end of the day the do what is best for the country - at least they try to do so.

But now I have the feeling there are irrational fundamentalists at work. They have already caused great damage to America's renown. They pretend to be patriots but they are scarifying the nation's future for their goals and are trying to turn back the clock. Can people be so stupid to ignore the consequences of their actions?

America is in deep trouble and running into dept at that frighting speed can't go on forever. But is also seems clear to me that low taxes for the super-rich and cutting welfare spending can't be the answer. This is ruthless client politics (I hope this is the right word). So there has to be a consensus between all parties and social classes how to get out of this mees - maybe this is a typical German attitude.

I am trying to understand what caused these hardened fronts. The only explanation I found is, that America is afraid of loosing their role as the last remaining superpower and that the Chinese will eventually become number one (an idea I don't like at all). Maybe you insiders can comment on this!

I hope, thing will take a turn to the better for America!