billschnieder
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On the contrary, it is at the root of your misunderstanding. When I suggestedstevendaryl said:That distinction has nothing to do with anything I've said.
P(\alpha \wedge \beta) = \int d\lambda P(\lambda) P(\alpha | \lambda) P(\beta | \alpha, \lambda)
You said
Apparently unaware that if you are right that the Probability at Bob does not depend on the setting at Alice (not that you are), thenNo, absolutely not. Not according to a local realistic model. That's the whole point of Bell's argument, is that the probability of Bob getting a spin-up result cannot depend on Alice's device setting
P(\beta | \lambda) = P(\beta | \alpha, \lambda)
The only time when those two are not equal is when Bob's probability is dependent of Alice's setting. In other words, the equation I gave is ALWAYS CORRECT, but yours in ONLY CORRECT WHEN THERE IS INDEPENDENCE.
But you are thinking that the outcome at Bob does not depend on Alice's setting. In other words, the outcome at Bob is a function of β and λ only ie F'(β,λ). And then you get confused by assuming that this means the probability of Bob's result is independent of the setting at Alice's detector. As I have explained, just because Bob's outcome does not depend on Alice's setting does not mean the probability calculated for Bob's outcome does not depend on Alice's setting. In fact, it must depend on Alice setting if you rely on any kind of coincidence counting.