Andy Resnick said:
Fair enough- I don't claim to be an expert in modern theories of evolution. I am familiar (in passing only) with the idea of a 'fitness landscape'- I particularly enjoyed Kauffman's "Origins of Order" book.
I only had a chance to look at the antibiotics paper, and it linked to their previos work here:
http://www.genetics.org/cgi/content...e6e0cef6ea851836a298ba0e&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha
I don't think we mean 'predictive' in the same way. For example, using in vitro (forced?) evolution as a predictive model for 'natural' evolution is fine. But surely, the researchers did not predict *which substitutions* would be made by the evolving/mutating bacteria.
I see what you mean by "predictive" now. I don't think its that simple though, because mutations are certainly chaotic (I don't use the word random here since certain areas of the genome are more prone to mutation than others, which in itself makes part of the process of mutation "non-random"). However, I don't think because the MS has chaotic elements it cannot be "predictive", it only means you cannot take a reductionist approach.
Similarly, your local weathermen/women are pretty good at predicting weather--So long as we are only talking a few days out, because the inherit chaos in the system (weather systems or over the long term, climate systems).
What I think that a great many biologist have realized over the last half century, is that biology (and its children disciplines) are not reductionist to the degree we can appreciate in physics or chemistry and never will be because of the complexity and chaos of biological systems (not all systems, but the more we "zoom out" the more complex these systems become)--That's the problem with letting all 'you physicists' in on biology, I kid, I kid!


There are a seemingly endless supply of variables that make long term predictions (because of inflections and new set points to systems) hard. In the short term though, such predictions to evolutionary change are "doable" (see John Endler's guppies), when we can account for the strongest variables.
That also isn't to say that long term evolutionary change
couldn't be predictable, I'd just feel rather sorry for the poor chap that has to write the algorithm
Andy Resnick said:
As another example- let's say I send you and a <ahem> harem out into space for several generations. We know there are genes that respond to microgravity conditions, and we even know which ones (in a few model organisms). However, I can't predict how your genome will evolve in response to your new environment.
Right, we don't necessarily "know" how the genome will evolve, but in some cases (short term let's say) we can certainly predict the outcome of the change. Let's consider a more down to Earth example (pun intended

. Suppose we took a bunch of white beach mice and transplanted their populations to gradually darker and darker backgrounds while introducing a strong selective pressure introduced by a visual hunter.
We could predict that those mice will get darker and darker coats matching the background and we might even try and predict the changes in the genome that accompany those phenotypical changes. It could be an inactivating mutation in the melanin gene, or a inactivating mutation in the receptor for melanin vacuoles, or the gene for the enzyme which cleaves promelanin, or the gene for the enzyme which activates the promelanin cleavage enzyme, or an even more radical change like the down-regulation of melanin sequestering cells, or or or etc. And if so, where in the gene? Is it a mutation that leads to altered splice sequence, a frame shift, a base deletion?
The problem is then, that evolution has many more solutions to environmental problems than we have the ability to imagine. So the question becomes, which is the more "important" prediction. From the reductionists view probably that "change in the gene", however biology is a "systems game" and the larger "system level" prediction is the one I'd argue is more important here for understanding the biology.