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cyrusabdollahi said:Is that your philosophy, can't think of a solution, so just give up all efforts and say it can't be done?
Not at all -- but I don't see any value in debating pie-in-the-sky figures.
- Warren
cyrusabdollahi said:Is that your philosophy, can't think of a solution, so just give up all efforts and say it can't be done?
Not at all -- but I don't see any value in debating pie-in-the-sky figures.
One option would be to outsource even more of our manufacturing and go to a nearly 100% service economy (including overseas services to pay for our goods). I'll bet that would take at lest 20% out of the commercial sector since manufacturing uses lots more energy than service.
Even in the short term, and even if that would be good for the economy to oursource that much of it, how does that help? 20% is not a significant fraction of the problem and its an amount that we'd make back up in 5 years or so anyway.selfAdjoint said:Well, can we at least discuss options for a 20% across-the-board reduction in energy usage? One option would be to outsource even more of our manufacturing and go to a nearly 100% service economy (including overseas services to pay for our goods). I'll bet that would take at lest 20% out of the commercial sector since manufacturing uses lots more energy than service.
Any comments?
Unfortunately, the laws of physics make it impossible for even the smartest EE to reduce our energy consumption by a significant amount without changing how we live. Ie...cyrusabdollahi said:Now how would we actually achieve those gains? You don't seem to ever advance any possible methods.
That is the job of smart EE's like you to figure out.
Actually, you're talking percentage points there, not percent of usage. You're talking cutting 20% from the 33% that residential uses right now. That's actually a 60% drop in energy usage for residential.Lets just play with a number here. Let's say, for instance, we can make some cuts in power use. A modest 5% in industry, 20% in commercial, and 20% in residential. You are talking of nearly 45% TOTAL ENERGY REDUCTION.
Actually, you're talking percentage points there, not percent of usage. You're talking cutting 20% from the 33% that residential uses right now. That's actually a 60% drop in energy usage for residential.
So how do we do that? Simple: eliminate all heating and air conditioning, since they are on the order of 75% of your energy usage. Is that a viable solution? No.
I didn't say it wasn't possible, I said it wasn't viable (that subtlety has been a problem in this thread several times...). Just being possible is not good enough. It needs to be viable and it is not viable.cyrusabdollahi said:That is just because you think it is impossible to eliminate all heating and air conditioning. In fact, its not. Its called making a sacrifice.
Perhaps you think that is an acceptable sacrifice, but I don't and I suspect that a high fraction of the population would consider that unacceptable as well. That and the fact that it would utterly destroy the economy are what make it not viable.It won't kill you. As I said before, it is a necessity only for the very old and the very young. I realize doing that is a big pain in the butt for everyone, but that's the price you pay when you have no other options. You start to cut back to the bare necessities.
That and the fact that it would utterly destroy the economy are what make it not viable.
People have had heat for hundreds of years and many people most certainly would die without it.
Computers, or electronics of any kind? No - they require air conditioning.
I think I asked you before if you are a "dark-ages environmentalist" and didn't get a response. It would appear that you are. You may consider such sacrifices to be acceptable, but that puts you in a very tiny fringe.
Huh? How do you phase out heat? And what would replace the economics of HVAC? These things account for a significant fraction of our economic output - they'd need to be replaced with something else.cyrusabdollahi said:That is why you would have to phase it out.
Now you're starting to be reasonable, but you're not seeing the flaw in your logic: the amount of heat required is proportional to temperature difference. If you live in a place where the average winter temperature is 30F and you drop your thermostat from 70 to 50, you've dropped your heating usage by 50%. Few people would find that acceptable and that isn't enough to meet your goal. And what if you live in Maine...?Ok, fair. Then you limit the total heat output. Make it so that the amount of heating you can get in your home is tolerable. This is one option to reduce heating usage. So your house won't be a warm sunny day in mid january. Its the price you have to pay.
Try running it outside on a hot summer day and see what happens. Most are good up to around 85 F before you start running into major problems.My computer does not have an A/C unit. Does yours? Does anyone else's?
You could probably redesign personal computers to allow them to run at an ambient temp of 90+F, but it would require a reduction in their functionality. Commercially, I think you underestimate how much of an effect computers have: most office buildings have to get cooling even in the winter because of their computers.For large networks and mainfraims, of course you will need it. But that's not going to be in every house in the United States.
The sacrifices you are talking about would drop us back so far it is difficult to classify you any other way. Simply put, the sacrifices you are talking about require giving up a lof of what we consider modern life. That's what I call "dark ages environmentalism".For the second time, no I am not. I am saying that if you want to reduce the amount of power we use, you will have to make some sacrifices. That does not make me a 'dark ages environmentalist.'
I didn't propose cutting power usage, you did. I'm saying that we can't cut power usage without irreparable damage to our economy and modern life. The problems of pollution and foreign oil dependence can be overcome by changing the way we generate power - they don't require decreasing our power usage.Its called there is simply no other alternative. If you want to reduce the power usage, you have to make cuts somewhere. Do you know of any places that we can make cuts, because I would like to know?
Huh? How do you phase out heat? And what would replace the economics of HVAC? These things account for a significant fraction of our economic output - they'd need to be replaced with something else.
Now you're starting to be reasonable, but you're not seeing the flaw in your logic: the amount of heat required is proportional to temperature difference. If you live in a place where the average winter temperature is 30F and you drop your thermostat from 70 to 50, you've dropped your heating usage by 50%. Few people would find that acceptable and that isn't enough to meet your goal. And what if you live in Maine...?
You could probably redesign personal computers to allow them to run at an ambient temp of 90+F, but it would require a reduction in their functionality. Commercially, I think you underestimate how much of an effect computers have: most office buildings have to get cooling even in the winter because of their computers.
I didn't propose cutting power usage, you did. I'm saying that we can't cut power usage without irreparable damage to our economy and modern life. The problems of pollution and foreign oil dependence can be overcome by changing the way we generate power - they don't require decreasing our power usage.
The reason it is called 'clean coal' is because it is not burned! It is gassified by heating to 2000 F which breaks it down into it's constituent chemical building blocks. These are then distillated and so what were harmful emmissions become useful by-products such as anhydrous ammonia and ammonium sulfate for use as agricultural fertilisers, phenol for use in manufacturing wood resins and naphtha and liquid nitrogen which have many uses.russ_watters said:One caveat about coal - coal is plentiful and cheap and because of that it is the primary obstacle to change in our energy usage. "Clean coal" is a smokescreen (pun intended). It is certainly possible to make coal "clean", but what is meant by that? Coal has impurities and releases all sorts of nastyness (including, ironically, uranium) into the atmosphere when it is burned.
Since the US energy demand increases by, say, 1.5% annually, we'll be back to the same demand in about 3 years, yet will have spent billions of dollars in a futile attempt to improve efficiency by this insignificant amount.cyrusabdollahi said:That gives a new total of 94.984%. So in electricity alone, we have skimmed off ~4.191% (Not too bad)
You sure have added up lots of numbers, but you still haven't provided even a single technique by which such savings could be made -- other than wearing sweaters in the winter, of course.cyrusabdollahi said:It is very possible to make great strides in efficiency, *if we want to*.
other than wearing sweaters in the winter, of course.
HVAC is roughly half of a building's energy usage (commercial or industrial). Energy is roughly $1.5 trillion or 15% of the US GDP (based on 100 quadrillion btu of annual usage at 5 cents per kwh). Someone check my math.cyrusabdollahi said:No, phase out the use of air-conditioning. You say it is significant, but I am curious as to how significant it is. Can you provide a statistic for that?
Just saying that doesn't tell us anything at all about how you'd go about doing it or what effect it would have.They would have to be replaced, but again that's the price you have to pay.
In my opinion, such baby-steps are counterproductive because they waste time. While we take baby-steps, the situtaion just keeps getting worse.Might not meet the goal, but it will take a step in the direction of the overall goal none the less.
It works out largely the same either way. In offices, the computers are responsible for most of the HVAC anyway. Whether you pipe the air conditioning to the computer itself or just to the room, the heat from the computer is still going back to the hvac unit.Then you cool the individual computers themselves, not the entire office building.
We already have a technology that works just fine. It's the subject of this thread.Don't get me wrong. If we can maintain our way of life, and find better ways to get power while reducing the effects on the environment, GREAT! But I find this very hard to believe, because when most of the world gets out of 3rd world status, we will have a major energy crisis on our hands. Eventually, cuts will be inevitable. (Unless we get some technologies that can supply the increased demands within that time frame, which is debatable)
People may be calling it different things, then: http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/powersystems/cleancoal/Art said:The reason it is called 'clean coal' is because it is not burned!
"Clean coal technology" describes a new generation of energy processes that sharply reduce air emissions and other pollutants compared to older coal-burning systems...
Initially, the demonstration portion of the program, the Clean Coal Power Initiative, is providing government co-financing for new coal technologies that can help utilities meet the President's Clear Skies Initiative to cut sulfur, nitrogen and mercury pollutants from power plants by nearly 70 percent by the year 2018. Also, some of the early projects are showing ways to reduce greenhouse gases from coal plants by boosting the efficiency at which they convert coal to electricity or other energy forms.
That technology is not off the drawing-board yet, and I think in the near-term we need to use technology that has already proven itself to be commercially viable. We could be building nuclear power plants now and in just a few years make a significant dent in our fossil-fuel dependence. Not these single-digit differences - in a couple of decades we could all but eliminate fossil fuel energy production.It is gassified by heating to 2000 F which breaks it down into it's constituent chemical building blocks. These are then distillated and so what were harmful emmissions become useful by-products such as anhydrous ammonia and ammonium sulfate for use as agricultural fertilisers, phenol for use in manufacturing wood resins and naphtha and liquid nitrogen which have many uses.
The CO2 produced is captured and as I outlined in an earlier post can be used to help extend the useful life of oil wells or simply sequestered underground.
The net result is there are zero emmissions from a plentiful raw material source with none of the longterm environmental / health risks associated with nuclear power.
Compared to the magnitude of the problems we're talking about, I don't consider 7.5% to be "immense" - I don't even consider it worth talking about. Coal power alone is currently half of our electricity generation.With regard to the US reducing it's usage of power one of the most obvious ways to do this without changing a single thing in how power is currently used is by converting the supply system to use HTS cables.
The amount of power currently lost through electrical resistance in the transmission grid is immense.
http://www.answers.com/topic/electric-power-transmissionTransmission and distribution losses in the USA were estimated at 7.2% in 1995 [1], and in the UK at 7.4% in 1998. [2]
Again, the numbers we're talking about are miniscule (I'm skeptical of that $100,000 a year savings, but anyway...). Such motors have been demonstrated at 97.2% efficient whereas conventional electric motors are up to 96.8% efficiency - a difference of less than 1%.Another interesting area under development is HTS motors, prototype 36.5 MW (47,000 HP) ship propulsion motors have been produced for the US navy weighing 1/3 and taking up 1/2 the space of conventional motors of the same rating. Many ships have already transitioned to electrical propulsion systems making the next step to HTS systems far simpler. It is estimated that if a cruise ship used a HTS propulsion system it would save ~$100,000 a year on fuel.
We already have a technology that works just fine. It's the subject of this thread.
Yes, I've glossed-over thos issues a little bit. The productivity losses we'd see due to people being uncomfortable at work would be huge. Our kids would not be as well educated because they can't pay attention in school if they are sweating. Disease would increase due to poor indoor environmental conditions. When I say that HVAC is one of the things that makes the modern world the modern world, it isn't just about comfort alone - comfort is required for making the world run as efficiently and productively as it can.TheStatutoryApe said:Cyrus I think that there's a bit of a conflict with trying to decrease energy usage. Yearly we want to make sure that more and more people have clean water, food, clothes, shelter, heat/air, medical care, education, transportation, jobs, ect ect... in essence if we try to meet these goals more people are going to be using more energy yearly. I'm sure that these are goals you would whole heartedly endorse and would like to see met on a larger percentage yearly.
All that nuclear waste could still fit inside a single football stadium and we could put it just about anywhere. But why even bother? As I said before, we could even leave it where it is now, not hurting anyone or anything.cyrusabdollahi said:Well, let's assume the world is peaceful. There is no disputes, we are all one big global community. We all use nuclear power, and we have eliminted all needs on fossil fuels. What would be the amount of nuclear waste produced by these production plants? Also, where would you propose we put all that nuclear material?
A 1000 MWe light water reactor uses about 25 tonnes of enriched uranium a year, requiring the mining of some 50,000 tonnes of uranium ore. By comparison, a 1000 MWe coal-fired power station requires the mining, transportation, storage and burning of about 3.2 million tonnes of black coal per year. This creates around 7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide not to mention sulfur dioxide, depending on the particular coal. Solid wastes from a coal-fired power station can be substantial and cause environmental and health damage.
Your information is a couple of decades out of date - see Dakota Gasification Company's Great Plains Synfuels Plant. http://www.dakotagas.com/ BTW The process was first developed and used by the Germans during WW2 to provide fuel for the luftwaffe.russ_watters said:People may be calling it different things, then: http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/powersystems/cleancoal/ That technology is not off the drawing-board yet, and I think in the near-term we need to use technology that has already proven itself to be commercially viable.
We could be building Clean Coal Plants now and reduce harmful emmissions to zero without the headache of disposing of nuclear waste or incurring the high costs >$300 m each in decommissioning the plants at the the end of their useful life. http://www.nrc.gov.edgesuite.net/failover.html Apart from disposing of the spent fuel remember when the plant is decommissioned much of the construction material is also irradiated and needs to be disposed of safely.We could be building nuclear power plants now and in just a few years make a significant dent in our fossil-fuel dependence.
, nearly half of this for treatment of the wastes stored on the site.
If fossil fuel is the most environmentally friendly, cost effective way to go why would we want to eliminate it? Especially as somebody here already pointed out there is only enough nuclear fuel for 30 years anyway and as I already pointed out enough coal to last 300 years, with the added advantage the resource is yours and so doesn't incur the problems involved in achieving a stable energy supply from politically unstable regions of the planetin a couple of decades we could all but eliminate fossil fuel energy production.
7 1/2% equates to something like 12 power stations. That sounds worth talking about to me. But then again you seem so keen to push the notion that anybody advocating saving power is a 'dark age environmentalist' I can see why you are so dismissive of substantial savings with no loss in standard of living.Compared to the magnitude of the problems we're talking about, I don't consider 7.5% to be "immense" - I don't even consider it worth talking about.
Precisely so the infrastructure is already in place to support clean coal power plants.Coal power alone is currently half of our electricity generation.
HTS motors are far more efficient than conventional motors at low speed. The $100,000 figure I quoted was the lowest end of the scale.http://www.answers.com/topic/electric-power-transmission Again, the numbers we're talking about are miniscule (I'm skeptical of that $100,000 a year savings, but anyway...). Such motors have been demonstrated at 97.2% efficient whereas conventional electric motors are up to 96.8% efficiency - a difference of less than 1%.
http://www.amsuper.com/products/library/Maritime_Reporter_final3_sk1_73002_final.pdf (you'll note this is from the source you quoted)HTS Propulsion Systems Operate Equally Efficiently at any Speed As noted earlier, HTS propulsion systems have the additional advantage of being able to operate just as efficiently down to low speeds, which is especially important for cruise ships, coastal merchant ships and warships that spend much of their time operating at partial loads. Overall, the fuel savings from efficiency gains of HTS machines depend on the operating scenario but preliminary calculations suggest that fuel savings from $100,000 to $500,000 per ship per year can be expected for many ship types.
It seems only diesal direct drive ships are built, for which I am sure there must be good technical reasons but you'll be pleased to know they are also working on HTS generators too.Oh, and where does the electricity come from to power such motors? From an oil-fired gas-turbine engine that could have been connected directly to the screws anyway.