I'm stuck on what I'm sure is a very simple problem. I'm trying to calculate predicted output for my share trading model. For example, for a strategy the probability of it winning on each trade may be 0.4 and hence a loss is 0.6. But for each trade it wins, my account balance is increased by 5% and each loss it loses 2%. How do I calculate how much I would have won or lost after n amount of trades? Can you break it down to on average each trade its a win or loss of x% so I can just use a simple compound interest formula to calculate expected profit after n amount of trades?