Solar Flare & CME: August 9, 2011 X6.9 Flare

[Astronuc]

On August 9, 2011 at 3:48 a.m. EDT, the sun emitted an Earth-directed X6.9 flare, as measured by the NOAA GOES satellite. These gigantic bursts of radiation cannot pass through Earth's atmosphere to harm humans on the ground, however they can disrupt the atmosphere and disrupt GPS and communications signals. In this case, it appears the flare is strong enough to potentially cause some radio communication blackouts. It also produced increased solar energetic proton radiation -- enough to affect humans in space if they do not protect themselves.

There was also a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this flare. CMEs are another solar phenomenon that can send solar particles into space and affect electronic systems in satellites and on Earth. However, this CME is not traveling toward and Earth so no Earth-bound effects are expected.

NASA has captured some incredible videos

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News080911-xclass.html

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News080411-dblpunch.html

There was a big blast on June 7.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News060711-blast.html

The June 7 eruption was discussed here - https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=505203

 

[Drakkith]

That 2nd link had a REALLY cool animation! Thanks Astronuc!

 

[rednus6]

Holy cow.. the CME on June 7 looks massive..

 

[Dotini]

A 40 minute video from NASA on recent progress in understanding and predicting CME's.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7m1XqyOOChY&feature=player_embedded

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/18aug_cmemovie/

Decades of questions above flares, CME's and the solar wind have been building up. Now, in the last five years, a fleet of some 16 NASA heliophysics missions are altering our whole view of our magnetic variable star, according to NASA scientists. In 2016, a mission to the corona itself is in the works!

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

 

[Dotini]

X-flares of Solar Cycle 24:
Feb. 15, 2011 (X2)
March 9, 2011 (X1)
Aug. 9, 2011 (X7)

Before these three, the previous X-flare occurred on Dec.14, 2006, (X1) during old Solar Cycle 23.

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=10&month=08&year=2011

http://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html?PHPSESSID=dq2qbkedtih967l3bnmp7nfci2 <-- classification of flares

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/18aug_cmemovie/ <-- Earth engulfed by CME

 

[Dotini]

A new X-class flare is reported: http://spaceweather.com/ <-- archive Sept 7, 2011

This one is an X2.1, with possible CME to arrive at Earth, ETA Sept 8-10.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

 

[Drakkith]

A new X-class flare is reported: http://spaceweather.com/ <-- archive Sept 7, 2011

This one is an X2.1, with possible CME to arrive at Earth, ETA Sept 8-10.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

Any idea what we should expect here on Earth when it hits? I'm down here in Louisiana, it would be awesome if I got a chance to see an aurora or something.

 

[Dotini]

Any idea what we should expect here on Earth when it hits? I'm down here in Louisiana, it would be awesome if I got a chance to see an aurora or something.

Quick guess is "no way!"

Perhaps if you lived in Michigan or Minnesota...

Respectfully,
Steve

 

[Drakkith]

Quick guess is "no way!"

Perhaps if you lived in Michigan or Minnesota...

Respectfully,
Steve

To cold up there!

 

[Dotini]

More X-class flares are occurring, with Earth directed CME's possibly on the way.

http://spaceweather.com/ <-- archive September 24, 2011
SATURDAY X-FLARE: Behemoth sunspot 1302 unleashed another strong flare on Saturday morning--an X1.9-category blast at 0940 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

The movie also shows a shadowy shock wave racing away from the blast site. This is a sign that the blast produced a coronal mass ejection (CME). Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the CME could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 26 at 14:10 UT (+/- 7 hours); click here for an animated forecast track.

UPDATE: Sunspot AR1302 followed today's X2-flare with an M7-flare nearly as strong (movie). So far none of the blasts has been squarely Earth-directed, but this could change as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead. AR1302 is growing and shows no immediate signs of quieting down.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

PS: These videos of recent aurora are inspiring:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_OPOb6xoao&feature=related

 

[Dotini]

http://spaceweather.com/ <-- archive Sept 29, 2011
REVERBERATIONS: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 26th, sparking one of the strongest magnetic storms in years. At the peak of the Kp=8 disturbance, auroras were sighted around both poles and more than half a dozen US states. Magnetic reverberations continued for more than 48 hours. Here is the view from forests of Skibotn, Norway, two days after the CME impact:

 

[Dotini]

Over the years I've seen a number of NASA videos where the sun appears to react to comets, once reaching out and snapping off the tail of a distant comet! Naturally I've never whispered this to a soul, because coincidence seemed a more likely explanation. Now, I'm not so sure since NASA itself is openly musing about this.

http://spaceweather.com/ <-- archive Oct 3, 2011
COMET AND CME: A comet discovered by amateur astronomers on Friday, Sept. 30th, disintegrated in spectacular fashion the very next day when it plunged into the sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the comet's last hours. The end was punctuated by an unexpected explosion; click on the image to set the scene in motion:

Watch the movie again. The timing of the CME so soon after the comet dove into the sun suggests a link. But what? There is no known mechanism for comets to trigger solar explosions. Before 2011 most solar physicists would have discounted the events of Oct. 1st as pure coincidence--and pure coincidence is still the most likely explanation. Earlier this year, however, the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) watched another sungrazer disintegrate in the sun's atmosphere. On July 5, 2011, the unnamed comet appeared to interact with plasma and magnetic fields in its surroundings as it fell apart. Could a puny comet cause a magnetic instability that might propagate and blossom into a impressive CME? The question is not so crazy as it once seemed to be.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

 

[Drakkith]

Perhaps something akin to the butterfly effect?

 

[Dotini]

Here is a very nifty piece from NASA explaining how the sun snipped off Encke's tail, having to do with opposite magnetic fields between the comet and the CME. The CME has as little mechanical force as a baby's breath, so the analogy to a butterfly could well be appropriate.

It would be interesting to learn how a short period comet and a CME came to have opposite magnetic fields.



Respectfully submitted,
Steve

 

[Dotini]

After checking in on spaceweather.com most every morning for a few years, I am gathering the impression that CME's will often collide with one or another of the inner planets, and sometimes even a stray passing comet. Has anyone else noticed this? Is there a known reason for the sun to be reaching out and touching nearby planets and comets, or is merely coincidental?

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

 

[Drakkith]

After checking in on spaceweather.com most every morning for a few years, I am gathering the impression that CME's will often collide with one or another of the inner planets, and sometimes even a stray passing comet. Has anyone else noticed this? Is there a known reason for the sun to be reaching out and touching nearby planets and comets, or is merely coincidental?

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

From what I've seen, CME's are usually massive in scale and expand as they move outwards. It's almost inevitable that they hit something it seems to me.

 

[Astronuc]

01.25.12 - M8.7 Solar Flare and Earth Directed CME
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News012312-M8.7.html (video available)

01.19.12 - Long duration M3.2 Flare
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News011912-M3.2flare-cme.html

 

[davenn]

And a X1.8 in the last ~24 hrs :)
Unfortunately not Earth directed tho

cheers
Dave

 

[pbrekke]

But a medium small radiation storm I'm progress..

 

[davenn]

But a medium small radiation storm I'm progress..

a little difficult to understand :(

any MAGNETIC storming at the moment is not as a result of this flare
The CME that was produced won't get to Earth vicinity till the 30th - 31st Jan and
even then its prediced to just miss us see spaceweather.com

cheers
Dave

 

[pbrekke]

Some CMEs accelerate high energy protons (proton shower or Solar Energetic Protons). They will follow the Suns magnetic fields than are bent towards the Earth from the west limb of the Sun. Thus the radiation level reached S2 on NOAAs scale. These particles penetrate satellites and can harm humans in space... Some of this is explained in my new book..

http://www.springer.com/about+springer/media/pressreleases?SGWID=0-11002-6-1337821-0https://www.amazon.com/dp/146140570X/?tag=pfamazon01-20

 

[Radrook]

Coronal mass ejections also help shield the Earth from the far more penetrating cosmic rays.

Forbush decrease

A Forbush decrease is a rapid decrease in the observed galactic cosmic ray intensity following a coronal mass ejection (CME). It occurs due to the magnetic field of the plasma solar wind sweeping some of the galactic cosmic rays away from Earth. The term Forbush decrease was named after the American physicist Scott E. Forbush, who studied cosmic rays in the 1930s and 1940s.





Observation


The Forbush decrease is usually observable by particle detectors on Earth within a few days after the CME, and the decrease takes place over the course of a few hours. Over the following several days, the solar cosmic ray intensity returns to normal. Forbush decreases have also been observed by humans on Mir and the International Space Station (IIS), and by instruments onboard Pioneer 10 and 11 and Voyager 1 and 2, even past the orbit of Neptune.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbush_decrease

Here is an article that discusses the effects of solar flares on cosmic rays further.

Who's Afraid of a Solar Flare?
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2005/07oct_afraid/

 

[Astronuc]

A solar tornado - video from NASA's Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO)

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=132883751

Images/videos of solar flares provided on same page.

 

[Dotini]

We may be in for a "big one" on March 8th, around 0625 UT. It's an incoming CME from an X5 flare.
http://spaceweather.com/ <--archive Mar 7, 2011

Much will depend upon the orientation of Earth's magnetic field as to any adverse affects upon earthly powerlines, pipelines, etc.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

 

[davenn]

.....Much will depend upon the orientation of Earth's magnetic field as to any adverse affects upon earthly powerlines, pipelines, etc.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

This time of the year is very good for maj aurora displays ... that is... March and October
The inclination of the Earth's axis and magnetic field relative to the sun lend well to good displays during moderate to major solar activity.

I don't see aurora from where I have been living for the last 12 yrs (Sydney, Australia)
But back in southern New Zealand and during each of the solar max years most of the major aurora I have witnessed have been during the months of March and October.

just arrived from IPS in the email...

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 12/04
ISSUED AT 07/2239Z MARCH 2012
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

An X5/X1 solar flare sequence occurred early on March 07. Both produced
fast full-halo CME's which are likely to impact the Earth later
on March 08.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 08-09 MARCH 2012
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
08 Mar: Minor to major storm conditions. Possible severe storm conditions at high latitudes.
09 Mar: Active to Minor storm

IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc@ips.gov.au


those in hi latitudes and dark skies, get your cameras ready :)


cheers
Dave

 

[davenn]

I have been downloading solar images daily from the net for more years than I care to remember... well for as long as they have been available (early '90's ). Concerning the spot group that has been producing these latest flares, I noticed something interesting.

The magnetogram showed reverse polarity in part of the active group see attached image
I have cropped the image to just the active regions as the full image is just too big to post here

Note that in the southern hemisphere that the white regions of magnetic polarity lead the black regions for the 3 active regions visible. In the northern hemisphere this will be opposite and can be seen is the active region on the right edge and the larger active region right of centre. BUT the other part of that central active region has the white leading the black as in the southern hemisphere.

Am just posting an interesting observation :)

I have has a passion for solar astronomy since the early 1970's when I started doing daily sunspot drawing using (a way back then) an 8" Newtonian stopped down to ~ 3" and eyepiece projection onto a board that I had sheets of paper with a 6" circle drawn on.

cheers
Dave

 

[Astronuc]

Coronal mass ejection from monster sunspot AR 1476 due May 14
http://Earth'sky.org/space/huge-sunspot-ar1476-turned-our-way-might-produce-x-flare

MAY 11, 2012 10:17 CDT (15:17 UTC) Space weather forecasters at NOAA estimate a 75% chance of M-class solar flares and a 20% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours from the large sunspot AR 1476. This sunspot is directly facing our planet, so if a flare does occur its effects on the space weather environment are likely to pass our way. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center said today (May 11, 2012):

. . . .

Some cool pics.

http://spaceweather.com/images2012/12may12/hmi4096_blank.jpg

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=11&month=05&year=2012
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=12&month=05&year=2012