Solving the Mystery of \ln{v_{i}} in an Expression

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the logarithmic transformation of a product expression related to a statistical model, specifically focusing on the appearance of the term \ln{v_{i}} in the context of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for a GARCH(1,1) model. Participants explore the derivation and implications of this transformation, including the treatment of constants and variable parameters.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant expresses confusion about the origin of the term \ln{v_{i}} in their logarithmic transformation of the product expression.
  • Another participant points out a potential oversight regarding the factor of m in the original expression, although this does not directly address the main question.
  • A third participant clarifies the distinction between using a constant v and variable v_{i} in the product expression, noting how this affects the resulting logarithmic form.
  • A later reply elaborates on the context of the original expression, explaining that it relates to estimating parameters in a GARCH(1,1) model and how the transformation reflects the likelihood of observations under a normal distribution.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the specific derivation of the \ln{v_{i}} term, and there are competing interpretations regarding the treatment of constants versus variables in the expression. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the exact steps leading to the appearance of \ln{v_{i}}.

Contextual Notes

The discussion highlights potential limitations in understanding the assumptions underlying the transformation, particularly regarding the treatment of constants and the implications for the GARCH model. There are also unresolved mathematical steps in the derivation process.

Polymath89
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I have a problem taking the log of this expression \prod_{i=1}^m[\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi v}}\exp{(\frac{-u_{i}^2}{2v_{i}})}]

Now I would get \ln({\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi v}}})(\sum_{i=1}^m{\frac{-u_{i}^2}{v_{i}}})

The author gets, by ignoring the constant multiplicative factors, \sum_{i=1}^m (-\ln{v_{i}}-\frac{u_{i}^2}{v_{i}})

Can anybody tell me where the \ln{v_{i}} comes from and what I have done wrong?
 
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Polymath89 said:
I would get \ln({\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi v}}})(\sum_{i=1}^m{\frac{-u_{i}^2}{v_{i}}})

You are missing m (not that it answers your question).
 
Do you mean

\prod_{i=1}^m[\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi v}}\exp{(\frac{-u_{i}^2}{2v_{i}})}]

or

\prod_{i=1}^m[\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi v_i}}\exp{(\frac{-u_{i}^2}{2v_{i}})}]
 
I'm sorry, I just noticed the difference in the terms, first the author uses v as a constant, so he starts with this term:

\prod_{i=1}^m[\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi v}}\exp{(\frac{-u_{i}^2}{2v})}]

and then he gets, by ignoring the constant multiplicative factors:

\sum_{i=1}^m (-\ln{v}-\frac{u_{i}^2}{v})

Then he replaces v with v_{i}, so \prod_{i=1}^m[\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi v_i}}\exp{(\frac{-u_{i}^2}{2v_{i}})}]

and gets \sum_{i=1}^m (-\ln{v_{i}}-\frac{u_{i}^2}{v_{i}})

To put all of this in perspective, the author tries to estimate parameters of a GARCH(1,1) model and the first part(with v as a constant) is supposed to be an example of a Maximum Likelihood Estimation, where he estimates the variance v of a random variable X from m observations on X when the underlying distribution is normal with zero mean. Then the first term is just the likelihood of the m observations occurring in that order.
For the second part with v_{i}, he uses MLE to estimate the parameters of the GARCH model. v_{i} is the variance for day i and he assumes that the probability distribution of u_{i} conditional on the variance is normal. Then he gets \prod_{i=1}^m[\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi v_i}}\exp{(\frac{-u_{i}^2}{2v_{i}})}]

and \sum_{i=1}^m (-\ln{v_{i}}-\frac{u_{i}^2}{v_{i}})
 

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