News Stimulus spending (split from cap& trade thread)

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The discussion centers on the effectiveness of Obama's stimulus spending, with participants debating whether it has adequately addressed unemployment. Some argue that while Obama has enacted significant stimulus measures, they have not sufficiently closed the unemployment gap, which remains around 10%. Critics suggest that the stimulus targeted projects that were not essential for economic recovery, leading to inefficiencies. Others contend that the overall amount of spending is historically large and should not be considered restraint. The conversation concludes with a consensus that the current stimulus has not met its intended goals and may require reevaluation or expansion.
  • #121


Chalnoth said:
I really really really don't get how you can possibly think, Nebula, that the money spent on entitlement and research programs isn't spent.

If the money is spent to utilize research facilities, it goes to the university or government that controls the facilities, and thus not into the economy. If it goes to entitlements, it can go into people's pockets. Again, it depends.
 
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  • #122


Nebula815 said:
If the money is spent to utilize research facilities, it goes to the university or government that controls the facilities, and thus not into the economy.
How are they not part of the economy? If it goes to utilize research facilities, for example, it will by large go to paying upkeep and maintenance for said facilities.

Nebula815 said:
If it goes to entitlements, it can go into people's pockets. Again, it depends.
How? The vast majority of entitlements are services (medical care being the largest).
 
  • #123


Chalnoth said:
How are they not part of the economy? If it goes to utilize research facilities, for example, it will by large go to paying upkeep and maintenance for said facilities.

Certainly. But maybe the facilities are already maintained by other money and the money charged is just used to help offset some of the cost, and is saved by the institution.

How? The vast majority of entitlements are services (medical care being the largest).

I mean via fraud and corruption issues and so forth, which tend to plague government programs.
 
  • #124


Nebula815 said:
Certainly. But maybe the facilities are already maintained by other money and the money charged is just used to help offset some of the cost, and is saved by the institution.
Do you really think that there are many institutions around that are flush with cash under the current economic conditions?

Nebula815 said:
I mean via fraud and corruption issues and so forth, which tend to plague government programs.
You have never quantified such things, nor shown how they aren't stimulative (e.g. money going to a senator's pet project may be corrupt, but it still stimulates the economy because it's still the government buying something).
 
  • #125


Chalnoth said:
Do you really think that there are many institutions around that are flush with cash under the current economic conditions?

I don't know. A lot of them sure charge a lot of money to attend!

You have never quantified such things, nor shown how they aren't stimulative (e.g. money going to a senator's pet project may be corrupt, but it still stimulates the economy because it's still the government buying something).

If it goes into people's pockets instead of directly to buying things, there is no way to know if it will be stimulative or not.
 
  • #126


Nebula815 said:
I don't know. A lot of them sure charge a lot of money to attend!
That's your only response? Seriously? Just for one small example, due to the budget crisis in California, the University of California has had to increase its tuition by 32% since this crisis began, just to make ends meet.

Nebula815 said:
If it goes into people's pockets instead of directly to buying things, there is no way to know if it will be stimulative or not.
But where does that happen, precisely?
 
  • #127


Chalnoth said:
That's your only response? Seriously? Just for one small example, due to the budget crisis in California, the University of California has had to increase its tuition by 32% since this crisis began, just to make ends meet.

I meant privately-owned institutions. California's problem is because every time they raise taxes, they increase spending further, so then an economic crises hits and the state goes bankrupt. Although I am not saying private institutions are per se flush with cash either. But I do not see how funding for research programs can stimulate the economy, as the facilities of the university must be maintained regardless of whether research is carried out or not.

But where does that happen, precisely?

Medicare and Medicaid are two. So is the public education system. It is the nature of any government program. To get more money year after year, the program will find ways to waste money. Oftentimes that meanshiring a lot of unecessary people for example.
 
  • #128


Nebula815 said:
I meant privately-owned institutions. California's problem is because every time they raise taxes, they increase spending further, so then an economic crises hits and the state goes bankrupt.
No, that would be a policy that actually makes sense. California's problem is that it is nigh impossible for the state to raise taxes (requires a 2/3rds majority), but the populace have been crying out for more social services.

Nebula815 said:
Although I am not saying private institutions are per se flush with cash either. But I do not see how funding for research programs can stimulate the economy, as the facilities of the university must be maintained regardless of whether research is carried out or not.
In this case, we'd be talking about labs staying open as opposed to being closed down due to lack of funds.

Nebula815 said:
Medicare and Medicaid are two. So is the public education system. It is the nature of any government program. To get more money year after year, the program will find ways to waste money. Oftentimes that meanshiring a lot of unecessary people for example.
Those don't just hand money to people. The people to whom the benefits are applied never even see the money: it is spent directly on the goods and services in question.
 
  • #129


Chalnoth said:
Those don't just hand money to people. The people to whom the benefits are applied never even see the money: it is spent directly on the goods and services in question.

Medicare and Medicaid DO "just hand money to people".

The current (nation wide) average cost of an individual health insurance policy is about $300 per month and rises to about $800 per month at age 64.

At 65, the cost of Medicare Part B is ($96.40 or $110.50 or more if income exceeds $85K) and an average Medigap/Supplemnt is about $125 per month. A Medicare Advantage plan costs between $0 and $200 per month (as components of MAPD Part D RX is $30 and avg health/medical about $20) $50 average.

In the MAPD scenario, Medicare pays the private insurance company a fixed amount each month ($400 to $800) and the insurance company pays instead of Medicare.

Under the Medigap formula, Medicare pays 80% and the supplement pays 20% (over-simplified).

If the person is Dual Eligible - that is QMB/Full Medicaid and Medicare eligible - the beneficiary pays NOTHING. The personal income QMB threshold was $918/month in 2009. The QMB also qualifies the person for food stamps and other benefits.

To summarize:

Average Health Insurance Costs

Age 35 $300/mos...Age 64 $800/mos...Age 65 $150 (if also Medicaid $0)
 
  • #130


Chalnoth said:
No, that would be a policy that actually makes sense.

Not really. The state already has the highest taxes in the country and is an incredibly harsh environment for businesses, which are causing businesses to flee. It is a vicious cycle that will occur.

California's problem is that it is nigh impossible for the state to raise taxes (requires a 2/3rds majority), but the populace have been crying out for more social services.

California already taxes pretty much everything that one can tax. They also have the most generous entitlements out of any state. The people there do not want their taxes raised, which means they have to understand the limitations of social services. I would imagine the only people who want more social services are those that make it a lifestyle.

In this case, we'd be talking about labs staying open as opposed to being closed down due to lack of funds.

I agree with you if the labs and facilities would otherwise be closed down, there would be a dropoff probably in economic activity in terms of their maintenance, I was talking under the assumption that they stay open regardless.

Those don't just hand money to people. The people to whom the benefits are applied never even see the money: it is spent directly on the goods and services in question.

A lot of people know how to rip off the system, and there is a lot of fraud and corruption that occurs within these programs.
 
  • #131
  • #132


Chalnoth said:
... California's [...] populace have been crying out for more social services...
No, the prison guard unions and the teachers unions have been crying for continued overly high pay. See, e.g.:
http://legacy.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060228/news_1n28guards.html"
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2004/05/26/359/29521"
 
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  • #133


WhoWee said:
Medicare and Medicaid DO "just hand money to people".
I don't understanding how paying most of the cost of medical care counts as handing money to people.
 
  • #134


Nebula815 said:
Not really. The state already has the highest taxes in the country and is an incredibly harsh environment for businesses, which are causing businesses to flee. It is a vicious cycle that will occur.
Hardly.
http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/total_taxes/index.html

It's not the lowest, but it is far from the highest. It ranks 17th in total taxes.

Nebula815 said:
I agree with you if the labs and facilities would otherwise be closed down, there would be a dropoff probably in economic activity in terms of their maintenance, I was talking under the assumption that they stay open regardless.
That's not really a valid assumption under the current economic climate.

Nebula815 said:
A lot of people know how to rip off the system, and there is a lot of fraud and corruption that occurs within these programs.
Define "a lot".
 
  • #135


Chalnoth said:
Hardly.
http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/total_taxes/index.html

It's not the lowest, but it is far from the highest. It ranks 17th in total taxes.
No. The detailed information is at the link I provided up thread w/ 2009 information. That CNN money link is very out of date - 2002, and the income tax + sales tax composite 'total tax' ranking is not very useful since total sales tax vary by locality and can be avoided by not buying in state, etc, nor is any single figure that useful given the tax rates vary widely by income, as you must already know.
http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/228.html
From the income bracket starting at $47k/year up well into six figure income, California does indeed have the highest income tax in the United States as of California's 2009 budget agreements. After six figures at least NJ and Hawaii have higher top rate taxes. Ca's non-exempted sales tax rate is also the highest in the country at http://retirementliving.com/RLstate1.html#CALIFORNIA" as of 2009 (other state localities might exceed that).
State Sales Tax: 8.25% (food and prescription drugs exempt. Tax varies according to locality. Can be as high as 10.25%)
Gasoline Tax: * 39.9 cents/gallon
Diesel Fuel Tax: * 44.5 cents/gallon
Cigarette Tax: 37 cents/pack of 20 plus an additional surcharge of 50 cents per pack, bringing the total to 87 cent
The next highest sales tax rate in other states is 7%.
 
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  • #136
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  • #137


mheslep said:
No. The detailed information is at the link I provided up thread w/ 2009 information. That CNN money link is very out of date - 2002, and the income tax + sales tax composite 'total tax' ranking is not very useful since total sales tax vary by locality and can be avoided by not buying in state, etc, nor is any single figure that useful given the tax rates vary widely by income, as you must already know.
http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/228.html
From the income bracket starting at $47k/year up well into six figure income, California does indeed have the highest income tax in the United States as of California's 2009 budget agreements. After six figures at least NJ and Hawaii have higher top rate taxes. Ca's non-exempted sales tax rate is also the highest in the country at http://retirementliving.com/RLstate1.html#CALIFORNIA" as of 2009 (other state localities might exceed that).
The next highest sales tax rate in other states is 7%.
At least my link looked at comprehensive tax receipts, instead of cherry picking a few places were California has higher taxes. For example:
http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/251.html
...where California ranks 27th for property taxes.

Their rankings for total tax receipts places California in sixth in 2008:
http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/336.html

This is pretty high up there, but it is not at the top.
 
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  • #138


mheslep said:
$60B/year medicare and medicaid fraud.
http://www.usdoj.gov/opa/pr/2009/May/09-ag-491.html"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124586523348648621.html" - "By some estimates, more than $60 billion each year is lost to fraud."
Only $60 billion? That's a pretty small fraction of the $2.2 trillion spent on medical care in the US. Losing three cents on the dollar shouldn't be a serious deterrent to spending money that needs to be spent.
 
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  • #139


Chalnoth said:
Only $60 billion? That's a pretty small fraction of the $2.2 trillion spent on medical care in the US. Losing three cents on the dollar shouldn't be a serious deterrent to spending money that needs to be spent.
That's a spurious comparison. The correct comparison is to Medicare and Medicaid spending, for which that loss amounts to much higher than three cents on the dollar. If the entire US health system were run like M&M, we would expect losses to scale to the entire US heath system, as well as trashing the quality of the system.
 
  • #140


mheslep said:
That's a spurious comparison. The correct comparison is to Medicare and Medicaid spending, for which that loss amounts to much higher than three cents on the dollar.
Really? Are you sure? Because the person being quoted there first talked about the total health care spending of $2.2 trillion, and how this large magnitude made it prone to fraud. She didn't specify that the $60 billion was only for Medicare/Medicaid, and given that she was talking about the whole industry, it seems unlikely she was referring only to these.

And she also mentions that the $60 billion number was only by some estimates, by the way: she didn't state whether this was among the high or low end of the estimates.
 
  • #141


Chalnoth said:
At least my link looked at comprehensive tax receipts, instead of cherry picking a few places were California has higher taxes.
Citing income taxes and sales tax details is not cheery picking.
 
  • #142


Chalnoth said:
Really? Are you sure? Because the person
What do you mean, 'the person'?

said Attorney General Holder. "Every year we lose tens of billions of dollars in Medicare and Medicaid funds to fraud.

Chalnoth said:
being quoted there first talked about the total health care spending of $2.2 trillion, and how this large magnitude made it prone to fraud. She didn't specify that the $60 billion was only for Medicare/Medicaid, and given that she was talking about the whole industry, it seems unlikely she was referring only to these.

And she also mentions that the $60 billion number was only by some estimates, by the way: she didn't state whether this was among the high or low end of the estimates.
Of course it is an estimate, we're talking about fraud. Assume its on the high side if you like (I don't, as M/M is a rapidly expanding system, and such systems are the most prone to inefficiency)
 
  • #143


mheslep said:
Citing income taxes and sales tax details is not cheery picking.
Sure it is, because property taxes make up a huge fraction of total receipts.
 
  • #144


mheslep said:
What do you mean, 'the person'?

said Attorney General Holder. "Every year we lose tens of billions of dollars in Medicare and Medicaid funds to fraud.
The U.S. spends more than $2.2 trillion on health care, including more than $800 billion on Medicare and on Medicaid, the joint federal-state program for the poor. The sheer size of the health-care system makes it prone to fraud and abuse, Ms. Sebelius said. By some estimates, more than $60 billion each year is lost to fraud. Attorney General Eric Holder said frauds "contribute directly to rising health-care costs that all Americans must bear."
Holder could still well be correct in is statement even if the $60 billion number was referring to all of medical fraud (If fraud is roughly equal between public and private, $60 billion total would mean roughly $22 billion fraud under Medicare/Medicaid).
 

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