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News When will China overtake the U.S, economically? - 2

  1. Dec 5, 2014 #1


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    It was asked a few years ago - When will China overtake the U.S, economically?

    Well by one measure - now.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/official-america-now-no-2-150936444.html [Broken]

    As was pointed out, the per capita GDP of China is much less due to the much greater population.

    On the other hand, China has a huge debt.

    But so does the US
    Last edited by a moderator: May 7, 2017
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  3. Dec 5, 2014 #2


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    Interesting that China has grown economically so rapidly, but otherwise I don't know that China's relative economic size matters much with respect to geopolitics despite the Market Watch reporters frantic prose. The comparison with the UK is particularly silly. The UKs power declined absolutely, not relatively, due to the wars, and, unlike the British pound, the dollar has no possible replacement on the horizon.
  4. Dec 5, 2014 #3


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    Agreed. Pointless media/pundit hype. When I have more time, I'll see if I can think of a less relevant measure of our relative economic strength...
  5. Dec 5, 2014 #4


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    "Too big to fail --- ?" Fingers crossed. For Russ, and anyone else, interesting read from 5 (10?) years back, The Mystery of Capital, Hernando de Soto, 2000, (15 years back) explores the concept of "private property" and property rights as they developed in the west and in the new world as a foundation for economic prosperity/strength.

    Arguably Europe and the U.S. are headed away from focus on private property, and the two big economies in Asia having allowed people a taste of it may become more independent of governments founded on principals borrowed from other non-functional Euro-centric models of property.
  6. Dec 5, 2014 #5


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    I am not sanguine about the future of the US. If there was another up and coming younger version of the U.S., say a 1920s version, with the same pluralistic government, property rights, and a similar dynamism, then I think the 21st century U.S. with its bloated government would get run over by its younger, prettier self. But in reality I see no such country of significant size.
  7. Dec 5, 2014 #6


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    Sounds interesting - I might try to read it. My gut tells me, though, that the reason capitalism succeeded in the West and failed in the East shouldn't really be much of a mystery: communists and dictators have been significantly less than enthusiastic in their implementations of it than Western governments have been.
  8. Dec 11, 2014 #7
    China has already overtaken the USA in manufacturing. People who don't think so simply are not looking. Buy a box of nails at Home Depot and read the box. Buy a Thomasville cherry wood bedroom suite for $5000, that too is also made in china. Once those factories leave they are not coming back. In addition to losing manufacturing jobs, we eventually will lose the engineers who design robotic assembly lines.

    https://www.mapi.net/system/files/PA-118_1.pdf [Broken]

    http://lucullan.hubpages.com/hub/Furniture-Made-in-China-Busting-the-Myth-about-Poor-Quality [Broken]


    In the automotive sector China is gaining market control of parts manufacture. That is both OEM and replacement parts.

    Last edited by a moderator: May 7, 2017
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