Super-China's effect on global economy/history

[marcus]

emergence of economic, technological, military Superpower China is important to understand and think about

http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2005/11/china-book-reviews.html

books are coming out about this
and so the New York Review of Books has articles like this

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/18437

"
Focus on China is overdue. For the last quarter of a century its economy has been growing by over 9 percent a year, increasing eightfold. However, it is not just this long-sustained hyper-growth rate that amazes and alarms the observer. It is the size of the economy which is growing. China's population is officially estimated at 1.3 billion, but is probably larger—one fifth of all the people in the world. This makes its rise much more important than that, say, of Japan in the 1960s. From the economic point of view its cheap labor is much more abundant, so its cost advantage will not quickly be eliminated. The size of an economy obviously matters, too, in measuring power. The Chinese economy, in terms of the purchasing power of the Chinese people, is about two thirds the size of the US economy.[2] If it continues to grow at 9 percent a year, it will overtake the US by 2014. Lee Kwan Yu of Singapore believes that the rise of China will shift the balance of power back to the East for the first time since Portuguese caravels arrived there in the sixteenth century."

So if Lee Kwan Yu is right we are looking at something that has not been seen for at least 400, maybe 500, years. or maybe has not been seen ever. this is very interesting (and of course dangerous) development needing intelligent and creative responses from western leaders and educated public opinion

 

[selfAdjoint]

We'll have to see how this plays out. My bet is the "West" (Europe and New World) will not yield without a fight. This does not need to be a war, but it could be a full-dress Atlantic Common Market is in the cards. As a US citizen, I feel that a more intimate relationship with Europe would be advantageous to us culturally as well as economically. In return we could give lessons on internalizing federalism.

 

[gravenewworld]

One way that economic/gdp growth is modeled is through the Solow growth model (Solow=MIT noble prize winning economist). Simply put, in this model sustained economic growth is acheived through increases in productivity factors and technology. In other words
y=zf(k)
Where y is gdp, z is technology, and f(k) is production based on the amount of capital per labor. One of the logical arguments put forth is that China has seen rapid growth in its gdp based on the fact that it simply does not respect rights to intellectual property (which may or may not be a good thing the way you look at it). Piracy and use of patented intellectual property are commonly used in China. Basically China just is increasing z by heavy illegal use of patented material, which in the end increases their y (or gdp). If you look at other countries such as Argentina and Mexico etc., their gdp growth rates have actually fallen when compared to the US. One possibility may be due to the fact that these countries don't have access to intellectual property and newer technology. These countries for the most part respect intellectual property, which may explain why they aren't able to increase their z's.

 

[scott1]

I don't think the we should consiresd about china right now even if it does become superpower.China just to become a more devloped country and if it does go to war the U.S that whould be a problem for it's ecconmy to devlop.I think this just consiparcy that media makes to make everone worried watch/read there reports on china.But I don't think that should that the U.S shouldn't be a little worried about China we should spy on it.

 

[gravenewworld]

China and the US would never go to war. That would just be plain stupid. The US is the biggest consumer of Chinese exports, it just wouldn't make sense for China the US to go to war. I hope China becomes an economic powerhouse. It would mean less people living in poverty.

 

[scott1]

Unfountrly China keeps making it's milltary stronger.I herd that there building some new Aircraft carriers.If they Invade any country like Tawian the U.S. and china might have to go to war.But if they ever do it be for a long time from now

 

[pikapika!]

Chinas growth shouldn't be considered all bad. The more money china have the more KFC and coca cola, nike shoes etc they will purchase creating more wealth for the americans. If china make the move of jacking up their prices for labour america can just go to India or indonesia or africa which means they would be making less money.

Chinese brands are yet to dominate the stores as there stigma for cheapness is still strong.

 

[alfredblase]

I think more competition for the U.S.A in the from of a rising power is a good thing. No single country should hold hegemony over the world, especially not a country proven to be so extremely violent like the U.S.A. And why do Americans always think of war as a likely outcome? No wonder you get into so many of them.. geez

 

[scott1]

I think more competition for the U.S.A in the from of a rising power is a good thing. No single country should hold hegemony over the world, especially not a country proven to be so extremely violent like the U.S.A. And why do Americans always think of war as a likely outcome? No wonder you get into so many of them.. geez

You do relize last time the world almost got destroyed by a possible Nuclear War last time tat happen.
I was never trying to suggest that the United states should go to war with china I was just saying that IF there's ever going war between the United States and china don't suprised.Americans don't want war a lot of Americans want to pull out of Iraq and if we did we whould of already invaded North Keroa

 

[summerbreeze]

Korea/Taiwan/Hongkong/Singapore became developed countries(regions) after ww2. the similarity between them is they are all chinese societies or have strong chinese culture influnence.
Now it's China's turn to catch up, after its ending the dictatorship of Mao 30 years ago and starting to embrace western technoloogy.
I am sure in the next 10 years, the world will feel the more and more stronger influence of a rising china. it would be intersting to see how the world will look like 20 years later.But fortunately most of us would live to see this great shift of power.

 

[SF]

China doesn't want to go to war. China has some loonie generals, true, but China isn't led by religious fanatics.
China is led by technocrats who just want the country to be rich, to have a word in the world's top nations.
Just like Russia.

Did you know Russia payed off it's external debts 15 years ahead of schedule?
Did you know Russia is the main exporter of oil in the world, bigger than Saudi Arabia now? (source: OPEC).
All this, because of natural resources and a good, strong economy.
Meanwhile, US national debt increases by the minute.

Russia and China are the new kids in town and they have attitude.

Will bring more content to you soon, just as I get over an exam.

 

[MeJennifer]

There is no contest, I spend a few months a year in China for the last few years and the economic development is going very fast.

While in the west we are concerned with things like "gay marriage", "affirmative action", or legislating small bedroom sized toilet rooms in coffee shops, and of course a separate one for the men and woman, "heaven forbid they have to share... ", the Chinese take a more "survive of fail" approach.

I am afraid that the goody two shoes softness of Western morality is going to eaten by the Chinese pragmatic tiger, raw!

By the way I do not imply any moral judgment here, I simply make my assessment of the situation.

Learn mandarin!

 

[MeJennifer]

Indeed the competition is going fast, and the U. S. better wake up to the reality.

I don't believe that is going to happen, instead we will get more golf courses, more programs for the weak, more equality, more political correctness, shortly "a green world were everything is equal".
When the US$ collapses people will not know what hit them.

Communism in China?
Right now China is, with the help of Confucian morals and heavy corruption, more cut throath capitalistic than the US ever was.