How long until the next global war?

[mugaliens]

You raise some good points. My $0.02:

It's been more than 60 years since the last world war. Society has become more globalized than ever. We (the Western world) are living in more luxury than kings were, a century ago*. (*Might be a slight exaggeration, but you get the point.)

I think it's more than "slight." I enjoy a normal, non-drafty, temperature-controlled two-bedroom apartment, with hot and cold running water, dishwasher, and washer and dryer. So, some of the creature comforts are better than those in a medevil castle.

But are they really, especially for a king? I've been to several castles, and many were dark, damp, and musty. But others were far better, although I don't know if it's because they'd been converted into museums, along with central air (which I suspect). But what about my having to cook, clean, and do laundry for myself? No king does that! Then again, I don't have to deal with tedious affairs of state or dangerous conquests, either.

The Western society is based on the ridiculously low prices of transportation for almost all resources, most importantly food. I think the chain can easily been broken and war is inevitable.

The more we wean ourselves from fossil fuels, the less we're exposed to a colossal breakage of that chain, and the less liklihood of another global war.

This is not to mention how our weapons are more effective and deadly than ever before in history.

I would argue they're more precise, capable of accomplishing the same task with many times less collateral damage. Why bomb entire rail yards when you can simply take out each of the locomotives and facilities used to repair them?

Although it's not exactly a daily issue for me, I very much doubt we're going through the first half of this century without a major conflict. Opinions?

I think we can avoid it, provided we stop monkeying around. Nuclear, wind, and solar - now, before it's too late.