News Surviving without College Education: The Struggle of High School Grads

[SixNein]

The data at the Bureau of Economic Analysis might indicate where they might go.

GDPbyInd_GO_NAICS: Gross Output by Industry in Current Dollars, Quantity Indexes by Industry, Price Indexes by Industry


(dollars in millions)
% Δ________1998________2010____Description
68%____$215,672____$362,308____General Federal nondefense government services
14%____$320,990____$366,383____Other nonresidential structures
81%____$214,504____$388,590____Nondepository credit intermediation and related activities
37%____$296,292____$406,174____Management of companies and enterprises
20%____$377,990____$454,476____Insurance carriers
13%____$477,434____$537,816____Telecommunications
29%____$429,724____$556,071____Food services and drinking places
78%____$316,283____$562,360____Securities, commodity contracts, investments, and related activities
46%____$390,964____$572,369____Offices of physicians, dentists, and other health practitioners
294%___$154,000____$606,411____Petroleum refineries
59%____$394,794____$626,833____Hospitals
55%____$413,200____$642,181____Monetary authorities and depository credit intermediation
74%____$405,963____$708,297____General Federal defense government services
25%____$815,047__$1,021,821____Real estate
29%____$957,347__$1,230,213____Owner-occupied dwellings
19%__$1,032,467__$1,231,934____Wholesale trade
13%__$1,176,978__$1,335,540____Retail trade
36%__$1,355,308__$1,843,225____General state and local government services

These are the top 18 sectors by 2010 gross output.
Other than doctors and nurses, I don't see much on the list that would require any college.

How much is the output attributed to automation vs people?

 

[ThomasT]

... I don't see much on the list that would require any college.

Low level, relatively unskilled or semi-skilled positions wrt any sector don't generally require college. The problem is that the relative incidence of these sorts of jobs is decreasing. Hence, the OP's question. How will the inordinately increasing masses of unskilled and semi-skilled people be employed? Will a large portion of them simply be unnecessary in the American economy of the future?

 

[OmCheeto]

Low level, relatively unskilled or semi-skilled positions wrt any sector don't generally require college. The problem is that the relative incidence of these sorts of jobs is decreasing. Hence, the OP's question. How will the inordinately increasing masses of unskilled and semi-skilled people be employed? Will a large portion of them simply be unnecessary in the American economy of the future?

Tougher question than the OP, IMHO.

 

[OmCheeto]

How are you using this data to answer the question?

Answer? I have no answer.

But the numbers talk to me, in different ways.

Sorting by %Δ, the numbers look even worse.

Half of the top 3 digit gainers are in the extraction industries.

Should they go into mining and oil?

And I am no Santorum. I spent 6 years in university trying to get my EE degree.

 

[ThomasT]

Tougher question than the OP, IMHO.

It seems so. How many non and semi skilled individuals will be needed 10, 20, 30 years from now? Will the employment proportions change? Will a significant number of even college degree holders fall into this category? What will the proportion of outsourced/offshored jobs and imported employees be?

I guess that where they will go and where they won't go are both problematic projections.

It entails making certain assumptions about the applicability of current trends, making assumptions about policy changes and effects of those changes, and then doing projections based on those assumptions.

 

[OmCheeto]

It seems so. How many non and semi skilled individuals will be needed 10, 20, 30 years from now? Will the employment proportions change? Will a significant number of even college degree holders fall into this category? What will the proportion of outsourced/offshored jobs and imported employees be?

I guess that where they will go and where they won't go are both problematic projections.

It entails making certain assumptions about the applicability of current trends, making assumptions about policy changes and effects of those changes, and then doing projections based on those assumptions.

My company sent me to a class a month ago. As an old dude, I loved the whole thing. Then I got to speak to the instructor, one on one, last week. We talked business, and then we diverged into, "I'm retiring and...", talked 'future' business. He recommended I read "The Coming Jobs War". I think he recognized that I was both insanely optimistic about my idea, and, um, quit naive...