That's Not a Drone!

[russ_watters]

[Mod note: This thread was originally posted in the moderator's forum, but has been moved to the main forum due to its potential value for the community. It started mainly humorous, but we've added serious content to make this a teachable moment.]

As I think most of you probably know New Jersey is having a drone/UFO mass hysteria event right now. Well, I was driving home from work tonight and the traffic report comes up on the radio. They reported a drone over a highway I drive frequently that passes a couple of miles from my house. Why that's relevant to traffic I'm not sure, but anyway I just shook my head and checked flightradar24. No helicopters at least. I get home, unload some groceries, and look out my garage, to the southeast towards that highway and I think I see it! It's not a drone, it's...

Venus! It's frickin Venus! There's a straight section of that highway maybe 5 miles away that runs southwest in the evening-commute direction. Lots of time to stare at Venus and wonder if it's moving.

I don't know why, but this thing annoys me more than it probably should, with all these pictures and videos of obvious airplanes in the news, and the newscasters just nodding their heads and saying "drone" over and over. That's not a drone!!

Ugh.

[Late edit prior to moving to GD]
FBI statement on the investigation:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/15/us/drone-sightings-east-coast/index.html

Of 5,000 sightings reported to the FBI (as of Monday Dec 16) "less than 100" have "deemed worthy of further investigative activity" and of those none have yet proved "nefarious".

Drones exist and they sometimes cause problems or are even used in spying or other nefarious activities. It's possible this all started with a real sighting or several. But to within a pretty good measurement precision (<2%) all of the subsequent reported sightings are mis-identified mundane things. Note though: in this event, the word "drone" may have partially replaced "UFO" or "UAV" so I wouldn't necessarily say that's 5,000 claimed "drone" sightings but rather would call most 'I can't identify it so it might be a drone'.

 

[Nugatory]

How far are these sightings from Grovers Mill?

 

[russ_watters]

All over it:
https://nypost.com/2024/12/12/us-news/heatmap-shows-monmouth-county-covered-with-nj-drone-sightings/

[extremely late edit] Ashamed to say I did not get the reference until days later.

 

[PeterDonis]

How far are these sightings from Grovers Mill?

Maybe it's Yoyodyne Propulsion Systems testing new models...

 

[DrClaude]

 

[Nugatory]

All over it

Hmmm.... so maybe 1938 wasn't a hoax? They've been hiding underground like cicadas and now are hatching out?

The silliness has infected my local (North Carolina, USA) social media with random sightings prompting "watch the sky - this is related to what's happening in New Jersey" posts. Mostly aircraft of course, but the geminids may be contributing.

 

[Doc Al]

All over it:

I'm in Monmouth County. Help me!

 

[Astronuc]

Apparently Department of Homeland Security (DHS) determined that most sitings were of routine air traffic, both public and private. Some were saying that the drones were the size of vehicles, such as cars or buses. That would indeed be a large drone (UAV).

 

[DrClaude]

People are so bad at identifying what they see, especially if they never look up.

When I was doing my Ph.D., I would travel by train daily between Paris and Orsay, going by the Orly airport. I remember countless times where I would see a big passenger plane seeming to hover in the air, an illusion due to its relative motion with respect to the trail and the absence of visual clues near the airplane.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

There is a concerning progression of crowd hysterics amplified by social media.

 

[Astronuc]

New Jersey rocker Steven Van Zandt says all drones should be illegal: 'It could be a bomb'
https://www.yahoo.com/news/legendary-nj-musician-says-drones-185257321.html

“I only have one question — why are drones legal?” asked Van Zandt Dec. 13 on MSNBC's “The 11th Hour” news talk show. “Are they not a terrorist act waiting to happen? I mean, it's a miracle there hasn't been a terrorist act done by drones.”

Many residents across New Jersey have spotted drones, some as big as cars, of an unknown origin. Law enforcement members and U.S. Coast Guard personnel have reported sightings. Federal officials have said there is no threat to national security.

But why trust "the government" or national security "experts".

Meanwhile,

Drones are legal to fly in most locations, but there are some stipulations, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.

Fliers must take a basic safety knowledge test, fly below 400 feet, fly away from airports, avoid all other aircraft, keep the drone in sight, and don't cause a hazard to people or property.

 

[Doc Al]

This seems reasonable:

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

But why trust "the government" or national security "experts".

I just watched the 3 Mile Island doc on Netflix. I can see why some are skeptical about trusting certain sources.

 

[vela]

People are so bad at identifying what they see, especially if they never look up.

Like Larry Hogan mistaking the stars in Orion's Belt for drones?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/technolog...ch-was-so-clearly-a-constellation/ar-AA1vYQyN

 

[jtbell]

Some were saying that the drones were the size of vehicles, such as cars or buses.

It's kind of hard to judge an object's size when you don't know how far away it actually is, especially at night.

 

[Borek]

“I only have one question — why are drones legal?” asked Van Zandt Dec. 13 on MSNBC's “The 11th Hour” news talk show. “Are they not a terrorist act waiting to happen? I mean, it's a miracle there hasn't been a terrorist act done by drones.”

Guns. What about guns?

 

[berkeman]

 

[berkeman]

 

[russ_watters]

 

[russ_watters]

I just watched the 3 Mile Island doc on Netflix. I can see why some are skeptical about trusting certain sources.

My opinions on that documentary aside, this particular incident has included a rash of exceptionally poor responses from public officials. People should remember that a local mayor or even a Senator or President Elect is not necessarily any better at identifying things in the night sky than the average American. But note, there is one group that rarely sees UFOs even though they should see the most: astronomers.

Mod note: No politics here. The problem I described above is not a partisan issue, it is universal amongst people, not just politicians.

 

[russ_watters]

It's kind of hard to judge an object's size when you don't know how far away it actually is, especially at night.

Impossible to judge. For an individual point source light the distance could be almost literally anything. Venus reported as a drone is at least seven orders of magnitude off in estimated distance. Even for airplanes, today most airliners look almost exactly the same regardless of size. An A350 and a 737 look exactly the same to an untrained eye so a big plane at 10,000 ft looks the same as a smaller plane at 5,000 ft.....and that's during the day. At night if it's just a collection of lights, an A350 can look similar to a Learjet.

 

[Baluncore]

The newscasters are just nodding their heads and "droning" on.

Venus does look good at the moment, in the evening.

Humans have survived to this day because they are sufficiently paranoid to avoid most threats. I claim that about 5% of the population are too paranoid for their own good, and that about 2% are so fearful that they do not leave their house, (so we don't see them). It is not surprising that, 5% - 2% = 3%, of people fear the unknown, and will report it to their social media, or to the authorities. That is just a part of the human condition.

So, what if there are drones flying about? Why does any sane person care? The operators are wasting their time flying, and recharging the batteries. You should avoid fascination, and get on with your real life.

 

[mfb]

People should remember that a local mayor or even a Senator or President Elect is not necessarily any better at identifying things in the night sky than the average American.

I would expect a politician to do more research before posting on social media, but maybe my expectations are too high here.

 

[russ_watters]

I would expect a politician to do more research before posting on social media, but maybe my expectations are too high here.

Yes, you'd hope. I'm not sure if you've seen any of the videos but a few local politicians have posted videos of them driving around looking for "drones" and they are about as bad as anything you've seen elsewhere:
https://nypost.com/2024/12/14/us-ne...h-police-with-rash-of-sightings-across-state/

No flighradard24, no binoculars, no long lens camera, nothing that would imply a serious effort or critical/non-conspiratorial mind at work. Everything they saw in the sky that they couldn't identify was a "drone".

And that one's not even as bad as the offshore Iranian mothership submarine (no, I didn't make that up).
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...sightings-new-jersey-pentagon-says-rcna183863

 

[berkeman]

And that one's not even as bad as the offshore Iranian mothership submarine (no, I didn't make that up).
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...sightings-new-jersey-pentagon-says-rcna183863

Jeeze, what a dipstick!

 

[Flyboy]

Somewhat topical…

I think most people don’t even bother looking up at night anymore, but now that there’s a supposed reason to, nothing is familiar to them and they just assume it’s the purported threat.

I know I was guilty of that many years ago. I saw an odd, slowly moving orange light climbing into the sky an initially thought it was a fighter jet in afterburner climbing away from me. After it was still present a solid minute later, I figured it had to be something else, and when another one joined it about 30 seconds after I realized it wasn’t what I thought…

I realized it was those floating hot air balloon lantern things.

 

[erobz]

Somewhat topical…
View attachment 354655

I think most people don’t even bother looking up at night anymore, but now that there’s a supposed reason to, nothing is familiar to them and they just assume it’s the purported threat.

I know I was guilty of that many years ago. I saw an odd, slowly moving orange light climbing into the sky an initially thought it was a fighter jet in afterburner climbing away from me. After it was still present a solid minute later, I figured it had to be something else, and when another one joined it about 30 seconds after I realized it wasn’t what I thought…

I realized it was those floating hot air balloon lantern things.

There are "drone like sightings" (w standard FAA lighting) and "bright orb" sightings - many videos circulating now. A theory of why we see a mix is because our drones are looking for the orbs. If we are all being conned, it's a heck of a show.

 

[mfb]

We shouldn't forget that all birds are government drones, too!

 

[russ_watters]

This one is really disappointing:


It's a news crew with a professional TV camera on a tripod, likely looking at Venus. They admit they have no idea what they are looking at, but worse, they also have no idea how to get a quality picture/video of the night sky with a $10,000 (guess) camera that is certainly capable of resolving Venus.

I'm going to need to take a video to demonstrate this, but I'll have to wait a few days for clearer skies.

 

[snorkack]

Have you ever mistaken a worker for a drone? Or a queen for a drone?

 

[jtbell]

If I were a bad guy flying a drone at night for some nefarious purpose, would I turn its lights on?

 

[Bandersnatch]

If I were a bad guy flying a drone at night for some nefarious purpose, would I turn its lights on?

Yes. To camouflage it as Venus. :p

 

[Baluncore]

"This is not an exercise".
That might be a drone.

 

[BillTre]

It's a news crew with a professional TV camera on a tripod, likely looking at Venus. They admit they have no idea what they are looking at, but worse, they also have no idea how to get a quality picture/video of the night sky with a $10,000 (guess) camera that is certainly capable of resolving Venus.

I'm going to need to take a video to demonstrate this, but I'll have to wait a few days for clearer skies.

Please send ABC a link to your video when done.
They really need to now when they are being stupid, on national TV, to millions of people.

 

[jtbell]

Yes. To camouflage it as Venus. :p

Hmmm... I took this picture earlier this month, a few miles from the Kings Bay submarine base in Georgia.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I think the drones of interest are the ones that hover over critical infrastructure and military bases, and act evasively.

Ghassali, the Montvale mayor, said law enforcement said in the briefing the drones sometimes appear to fly in a coordinated pattern and can sometimes be in flight for up to six hours.

The drones primarily operate at night, often displaying flashing lights, but they turn off the lights and evade police helicopters when approached, Mayor Michael Melham of Belleville Township said in a Facebook video update on Wednesday.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/12/us/new-jersey-drone-sightings/index.html#:~:text=The drones primarily operate at,Facebook video update on Wednesday.

The red and green aviation lights on regular aircraft are easy to recognize.

The Pentagon spokesman only waved his hand and said, "These are not the drones you are looking for".

 

[BillTre]

Pretty soon (I predict) the military will have effective anti-drone weapons of various kinds. Ukraine has been developing and receiving them for several months now.
After the military gets these anti-drone weapons, they won't be flying around those bases very long.

 

[jtbell]

Drones run amok during a synchronized-drone show in Orlando, Florida:



A kid was hit in the chest by a drone and needed heart surgery as a result.

This involved just a few of the drones in the show, and presumably happened because of a programming error or some kind of random interference. But suppose someone figures out how to "hijack" a whole fleet of these drones. Updated version of Hitchcock's film The Birds, anyone?

 

[russ_watters]

Turns out resolving Venus with a normal camera is much more difficult than I expected. Right now, Venus is only 20 arcsec across; a little more than 1% the diameter of the moon. In March it will be 50 arcsec across. By comparison, Jupiter is about 40 arcsec across.

The main problem I'm having is with focusing. Both my Panasonic Lumix point-and-shoot and my Canon EOS R10 SLR boost the screen brightness when manually focusing, blowing-out Venus and making it impossible to focus. I eventually figured out that there was a much dimmer star nearby that was not blown-out, which I could focus on before moving back to Venus. I haven't tried that yet with my Lumix, but here it is with the Canon: 300mm, f/5.6, 1/4000th sec (not a typo; really 1/4000th sec), unedited except for cropping.

This first one is a screen-grab from Photoshop at 400x zoom. You apparently can't resize without Photoshop applying a smoothing filter, and I didn't want to over-represent the image quality.

The next one is with the Photoshop 400% resize and smoothing:

Compared with Starry Night:

I'll try again another night and will still try to take an instructional video if I can get it working on the Lumix.

 

[Swamp Thing]

https://www.indy100.com/news/us-navy-venus-spy-balloon-2659371853

The more things change...

 

[berkeman]

https://www.indy100.com/news/us-navy-venus-spy-balloon-2659371853

The more things change...

Pilot: "I can't get a radar lock, switching to guns!"

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The UK has had troubling activity as well, so they are bumping up the restrictions around military bases.

Government places drone restrictions over 11 military sites​

These sites are all key Ministry of Defence locations, with some linked to nuclear operations or sensitive military activities. The restrictions apply to unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) flying within specific altitudes and distances around these sites.

This move comes after a series of unexplained drone sightings at US airfields across the UK, including two sites associated with nuclear weapons. While no arrests have been made, the incidents have sparked concerns that the activities may be linked to Russia. The authorities are continuing their investigations, although sightings have decreased significantly since late November.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/government-places-drone-restrictions-over-11-military-sites/

 

[Swamp Thing]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/natio...rones-give-precision-demo/article67938683.ece

 

[Redbelly98]

How far are these sightings from Grovers Mill?

Well, since it got brought up, here's an anecdote my Dad told me about that. He was 20 years old in 1938, and at a friend's house listening to the War of the Worlds broadcast. He said that, at some point, he said to his friend "I wonder if anyone believes this is really happening."

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It started with military bases. You have to learn to filter the noise from the signal. Why just amplify the noise?

 

[Doc Al]

 

[Ivan Seeking]

 

[Ivan Seeking]

One news source is reporting that, according to NJ police, drone activity is continuing, but I haven't see a confirmation from the police on that. However, the same source reported this story which seems to be confirmed.

The FAA confirmed to AIN that a Gulfstream G550 experienced a midair collision with a mysterious object at FL270 in Miami airspace on December 11 during a flight from Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport (KFXE) to New York’s Westchester County Airport (KHPN). According to the FAA statement, the twinjet diverted to, and landed safely at, Palm Beach International Airport (KPBI) “after the pilot reported striking an object in Miami airspace.”

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-...al&utm_source=linkedin&hss_channel=lcp-389487

Note that FL270 is 27,000 feet.

 

[berkeman]

Note that FL270 is 27,000 feet.

Holy crap. Drones can get that high?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Holy crap. Drones can get that high?

The legal limit is 400 feet for recreational drones. But military drones and others?