The current northern hemisphere cold spell

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the current cold spell in the northern hemisphere, exploring potential causes such as shifts in the jet stream, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Greenland block. Participants examine various meteorological phenomena and their implications on weather patterns, focusing on both theoretical and observational aspects.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants mention the jet stream moving south and the Atlantic dipole shifting as possible explanations for the cold spell.
  • Others suggest that a temporary shift in the Gulf Stream towards Greenland may be contributing to the weather changes.
  • One participant highlights the Arctic Oscillation being in an extreme negative phase, which weakens the polar vortex and allows Arctic air to descend to lower latitudes, resulting in colder temperatures in the middle latitudes.
  • Another participant notes that the Greenland block, associated with a negative Arctic Index, leads to colder temperatures in Europe and North America while causing warmer conditions in the Arctic.
  • There is mention of the historical context of the Arctic Oscillation, indicating that it has tended to remain in a positive phase since the 1970s, with recent extreme negative phases being noteworthy.
  • Some participants reference studies and data regarding blocking events and their relationship with the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, noting the lack of long-term trends in blocking intensity.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express multiple competing views regarding the causes of the cold spell, with no clear consensus reached on which factors are most significant or how they interact.

Contextual Notes

Discussions include references to specific indices and phases, but there are limitations in terms of assumptions about the relationships between these phenomena and their impacts on weather patterns. Some participants provide links to external sources for further reading, which may contain additional context or data.

dorlomin
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I have heard a couple of different explations from the jet stream moving south to the alantic dipole shifting. Others are saying that the gulf stream has temporarily shifted towards greenland.

Does anyone have a clear idea of what is going on and more important why there has been this shift in weather patterns this year?
 
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Here is an easy to understand explanation of what caused the cold snap.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/why-so-cold-greenland-block_2010-01-11
 
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There Arctic Oscillation is in an extreme negative phase. This makes for a weak polar vortex and allows the Arctic air to descend to lower latitudes. This also means that Arctic temperatures are higher then normal.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation

These regional contrasts in temperature anomalies resulted from a strongly negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AO is a natural pattern of climate variability. It consists of opposing patterns of atmospheric pressure between the polar regions and middle latitudes. The positive phase of the AO exists when pressures are lower than normal over the Arctic, and higher than normal in middle latitude. In the negative phase, the opposite is true; pressures are higher than normal over the Arctic and lower than normal in middle latitudes. The negative and positive phases of the AO set up opposing temperature patterns. With the AO in its negative phase this season, the Arctic is warmer than average, while parts of the middle latitudes are colder than normal. The phase of the AO also affects patterns of precipitation, especially over Europe.

The phase of the AO is described in terms of an index value. In December 2009 the AO index value was -3.41, the most negative value since at least 1950, according to data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
 
The Greenland block is another name/aspect of a negative Arctic Index.
It produces colder temperatures in Europe and the Eastern Half of North America
while producing warmer temperatures over the Arctic.

It is basically a fickle phenomena. No trend in intensity has been found, but it has
tended to be more positive than negative since the 1970's. So, when it is
negative, people in North America and Europe tend to notice it.
Interesting that it recently hit a record since 1950.

See http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter3.pdf" Blocking:

Blocking events, associated with persistent high-latitude
ridging and a displacement of mid-latitude westerly winds
lasting typically a week or two, are an important component of
total circulation variability on intra-seasonal time scales. In the
NH, the preferred locations for the blocking are over the Atlantic
and the Pacific (Tibaldi et al., 1994), with a spring maximum
and summer minimum in the Atlantic-European region (Andrea
et al., 1998; Trigo et al., 2004). Observations show that in the
Euro-Atlantic sector, long-lasting (>10 day) blockings are
clearly associated with the negative NAO phase (Quadrelli et
al., 2001; Barriopedro et al., 2006), whereas the blockings of 5
to 10 day duration exhibit no such relationship, pointing to the
dynamical links between the life cycles of NAO and blocking
events (Scherrer et al, 2006; Schwierz et al., 2006). Wiedenmann
et al. (2002) did not find any long-term statistically signifi cant
trends in NH blocking intensity.

And also the http://nsidc.org/arcticmet/patterns/arctic_oscillation.html"

Over most of the past century, the Arctic Oscillation alternated between its positive and negative phases. Starting in the 1970s, however, the oscillation has tended to stay in the positive phase, causing lower than normal arctic air pressure and higher than normal temperatures in much of the United States and northern Eurasia.
 
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